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Scottish Independence Referendum Betting Odds: 5/1 that the Independence Referendum takes place in 2023 with Nicola Sturgeon announcing plans!
Bookmakers make it 5/1 that the Scottish Independence Referendum takes place next year
Tuesday afternoon saw Nicola Sturgeon announce plans to go ahead with a second independence referendum, 8 years on from the 2014 vote.
Scotland voted No in that referendum and Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that that vote should be respected.
Sturgeon though said on Tuesday that she "is not willing to allow Scottish democracy to be denied by this or any other Prime Minister."
Bookmakers make 2025 or later 4/11 favourite in the market for when the next independence referendum will be.
| When will the next Scottish Independence Referendum take place?* | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18/1 | 5.3% |
| 2023 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| 2024 | 11/2 | 15.4% |
| 2025 or later | 4/11 | 73.3% |
*Only a Referendum authorised by both the UK & Scottish governments will count
It's 18/1 that the next Scottish Independence Referendum will take place this year, with just a 5.3% chance of that happening according to bookmakers.
It would take a lot for everything to go through in time to have the vote in 2022 so that's why there's such a slim chance of it happening in the next 6 months.
Sturgeon has stated her intention for the vote to happen in 2023, but there's only a 15.4% chance of that happening according to the odds.
Bookies give a 15.4% chance that there's a Scottish Independence Referendum in 2023, but bear in mind that bookmaker odds are reliant on both the UK & Scottish governments authorising the vote.
Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Nicola Sturgeon announced plans on Tuesday afternoon to go ahead with the Referendum with or without Downing Street's consent
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced her intention to go ahead with a Scottish Independence Referendum with or without Downing Street's consent.
This may cause further friction between Sturgeon and Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has stated that 2014's first vote should be respected.
Boris Johnson is currently under increasing pressure from a whole host of angles during his reign as Prime Minister, including the no confidence vote earlier this month.
Jeremy Hunt is the 4/1 favourite to take over from Johnson as the next leader of the Conservative Party if there are any changes happening.
Angus Robertson is 5/2 to be the next First Minister if Sturgeon was to leave
Speaking of Boris Johnson leaving, Nicola Sturgeon has regularly hinted that she will leave at some point in the near future rather than outstaying her leadership role as First Minister.
Sturgeon has stated that a No Vote in another referendum would be the end of her reign as First Minister, so if the vote is to take place next year it may be that we see her leave.
Former SNP Depute Leader Angus Robertson is 5/2 to be the next First Minister, with our expert blog going into further detail about who will be next.
Former SNP Depute Leader Angus Robertson is the 5/2 favourite to be the next First Minister, with Nicola Sturgeon previously saying she would leave if there is another No Vote.
Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Boris Johnson Exit Date Betting Odds
From the Dominic Cummings revelations to the refurbishment of number 10, and not forgetting party gate, PM Boris Johnson seems to attract controversy. With this in mind, the bookmakers have created a specific Boris Johnson Exit Date market.
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