Next Prime Minister Odds | Betting History and Trends

Updated: 1751 Politics & Current Affairs

Who will be the next UK Prime Minister? Most of the bookmakers have Prime Minister betting odds on what is sure to be another close-run General Election. Who do you think will win the keys to Number 10 Downing Street?

Next Prime Minister Odds | Betting History and Trends
Nigel Skinner Blog Content Manager

Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites

Next Prime Minister Betting

  • Keir Starmer v Rishi Sunak now looks to be our choice in the next UK General Election. 
  • The Labour leader is 1/3 with the current Conservative Prime Minister drifting out to 3/1.   
  • The Labour Party according to the best betting sites has an 85% chance of winning the most seats at the General Election. 

Who Will Be The Next Prime Minister Odds

Next Prime Minister March 2023
Keir Starmer 1/3
Rishi Sunak 3/1
Boris Johnson 6/1
Jeremy Hunt 14/1
Penny Mordaunt 20/1
Ben Wallace 33/1
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General Election

The Next PM odds predicate that the Conservatives (or Labour) will not change their leader before the next General Election.


Placing A Next Prime Minister Bet

There is nothing complicated about betting on politics, it is just another betting market like a list of horses for the Grand National.

You simply need to go to your favourite betting app and head to the politics section in the menu, then select Prime Minister betting.

The bookmakers already have 000's of betting markets on offer for the next General Election despite neither them nor us knowing when it will be held.

Nigel Skinner - OLBG Editor

If you do not have an active online betting account, then head over to our best betting sites section where you will see a list of bookmakers available in the UK.

We have in-depth bookmaker reviews so you can see what other users think of them before deciding, or head over to the free bets page where you can see the list of welcome offers currently available from all UK betting sites. 

  • All you need do is click on the candidate or party. 
  • This will open up the bet slip, at which point you will see confirmation of the betting odds being offered
  • Now you choose your stake - most betting sites will show you how much you can expect to have returned if your prediction is correct.
  • If you are happy, simply hit, PLACE BET, to confirm your selection, stake, and bet.
  • You will be given a receipt for your bet and it will appear in your open bets in your account details.
  • Then it's just a matter of waiting to see who becomes the next UK Prime Minister. 
Next Labour Leader Betting Odds
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Next Labour Leader Betting Odds

General Election Betting News Diary Timeline

24th November 2022

UK General Election Betting Odds: Labour have a 66% CHANCE of having the most seats at the next General Election according to the latest bookie odds!
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UK General Election Betting Odds: Labour have a 66% CHANCE of having the most seats at the next General Election according to the latest bookie odds!

The next General Election isn't due until January 2025 so it may well be another couple of years at least until we see the next election take place in the UK. An early election may well be called but that's usually chosen by the Prime Minister and it's doubtful that Rishi Sunak will want to do that. Bookies say that Labour will win the most seats at the next General Election with odds given of 1/2 that they do so. Smarkets give a 66.7% chance of it happening with Labour expected to have a big chance of gaining massively at the next General Election.

26th October 2022

Rishi Sunak Betting Specials: Sunak struggles expected at Number 10 with bookmakers giving him an 11% chance of increasing Conservative Majority at next General Election!
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Rishi Sunak Betting Specials: Sunak struggles expected at Number 10 with bookmakers giving him an 11% chance of increasing Conservative Majority at next General Election!

A new era of British Politics got underway this week with Rishi Sunak becoming the new Prime Minister after Liz Truss resigned from the position. Bookmakers are already giving specials on Sunak's reign including odds around the next General Election, whenever that may be. According to the odds, there's just an 11% chance that Sunak increases the Conservative Majority at next General Election, which is currently at 80 seats. BetVictor make it 1/25 that there is no increase in seats at the next General Election for the Conservative party against the 8/1 odds that there will be.

28th January 2022

Politics Betting: Keir Starmer 6/4 Favourite to be Prime Minister after the next General Election!
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Politics Betting: Keir Starmer 6/4 Favourite to be Prime Minister after the next General Election!

A really interesting betting market on who would be the next prime minister after the Next General Election. We have seen betting on the Next Prime Minister and Next Conservative Party leader, but this market has the added element of taking into consideration the Next General Election, whenever that might be if not as per the schedule in 2025. The interesting part of this betting market found on smarkets is that Labour Leader Kier Starmer is not only the favourite in the betting, but the bookmakers have made him a clear favourite with double the probability of either Boris Johnson or Rishi Sunak. 

1st October 2021

Punters are betting at 5/2 that the Conservatives win the Next General Election with Boris in Charge in 2024
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Punters are betting at 5/2 that the Conservatives win the Next General Election with Boris in Charge in 2024

The Conservative Party conference begins on Sunday in Manchester and as we go into it, the future looks [I'd better not use 'rosey'] bright for the Conservatives with betting sites offering a range of betting markets across the political betting spectrum. It would seem that if the odds are right, there is a 30% chance Boris Johnson will be in charge when the Conservatives win the next general election in 2024.

30th August 2021

Bookmakers Shorten Rishi Sunak to Win the Next General Election
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Bookmakers Shorten Rishi Sunak to Win the Next General Election

As Chancellor, one would expect Rishi Sunak to be in the news a great deal, and this weekend is no exception as details of granted planning permission for his home are in the news. Whilst that may be completed in the short term, Sunak can look forward to bookmakers' confidence that he is most likely to be Conservative leader and the next prime minister at some point from 2024 onwards if the correct betting odds probabilities are accurate.

Next Prime Minister Betting Candidates

Sir Keir Starmer

Sir Keir Starmer could be heading to Number 10 if the bookmakers have their betting odds correct. 

It is not so much what he has achieved but more the infighting within the Tory party that has made him the odds-on favourite to be our next Prime Minister.

Whilst chaos has reigned within the cabinet and on the Conservative backbenchers, the Member for Holborn & St Pancras has kept a dignified distance, making him look like the adult in the room. 

He will have challenges as he tries to appeal to disillusioned voters whose trust in politicians is at an all-time low, and as opposed to just reacting to the Government he will have to set out his vision and his party's policies. 

In February 2023 the Labour leader did set out aims. 

Sir Keir Starmer.

Labour Aims

  • Secure the highest sustained growth in the G7 by the end of a Labour first term.
  • Make Britain a clean energy superpower.
  • Build an NHS fit for the future.
  • Make Britain’s streets safe and tackle violence against women and girls.
  • Break down barriers to opportunity for every child by reforming childcare and education

Rishi Sunak 

Can the newish Prime Minister rally the Tory troops?

It will be 14 years that the Conservatives have been in power if the General Election is held in 2024, and as a party they may just have run out of steam and ideas. 

The 80-seat majority that Boris Johnson won in 2019 made the Conservatives complacent and they made a host of rash poorly received decisions

Add in a media that needs to find controversy in every bulletin, especially for a long-term incumbent (The Tories) and Rishi Sunak will need to be a man for all seasons. 

The Next Prime Minister

There is now real momentum behind Labour with all the best betting sites. The Conservatives will need to take radical action to win back the confidence of the country.

Betting Apps | Best UK Sports Betting Apps
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General Election Most Seats

You can see how the General Election most seats betting odds and percentages have changed over the months. The support for the Labour party has grown and grown whilst the Tory's chances have shrunk.  

In the Spring of 2022 the best betting sites gave the Conservative Party a 63% chance of winning the most seats at the next General Election. In Spring 2023 that percentage stood at just 22%.

Nigel Skinner - OLBG Editor

Month Party Odds % Chance Month Party Odds % Chance
February 2023 Conservative 7/2 22.22% February 2023 Labour 1/6 85.47%
December 2022 Conservative 9/4 30.80% December 2022 Labour 1/4 80%
October 2022 Conservative 13/8 38% October 2022 Labour 8/15 65%
September 2022 Conservative 11/8 42% September 2022 Labour 8/15 65%
July 2022 Conservative 4/5 55.56% July 2022 Labour 10/11 52.36%
April 2022 Conservative 4/7 63.69% April 2022 Labour 5/4 44.44%
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UK Prime Ministers Since 1945

  • Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair are the longest-serving Prime Ministers of recent years. 
  • The Iron Lady served nearly 12 years and the Labour Leader just over 10 years.  
Boris Johnson

BOJO was Prime Minister for three years and 44 days before being ousted by his own party.

  • The PM with the shortest tenure since the war was Conservative Liz Truss. 
  • In part, the Promufo Scandal saw him and the Conservatives lose the support of the country.


Prime MinisterTenureParty
Liz Truss2022-2022Conservative
Boris Johnson2019-2022Conservative
Theresa May2016-2019Conservative
David Cameron2010-2016Conservative
Gordon Brown2007-2010Labour
Tony Blair1997-2007Labour
John Major1990-1997Conservative
Margaret Thatcher1979-1990Conservative
James Callaghan1976-1979Labour
Harold Wilson1974-1976Labour
Edward Heath1970-1974Conservative
Harold Wilson1954 -1970Labour
Alec Douglas Home1963-1964Conservative
Harold Macmillian1957-1963Conservative
Antony Eden1955-1957Conservative
Winston Churchill1951-1955Conservative
Clement Attle 1945-1951Labour


Not including Liz Truss, the following parties have held power since 1945. 

  • A Conservative Prime Minister has been at Number 10 for 47 Years.
  • A Labour Prime Minister has been at Number 10 for 30 Years.  
After The Second World War

The Labour Party led by Clement Attlee won a landslide victory in 1945 with their post-war recovery plan.

  • The youngest Prime Ministers since 1945 are David Cameron and Tony Blair who both took office aged 43.
  • The oldest Prime Minister since 1945 was Neville Chamberlain who was 68 when he became Prime Minister.

Who are the shortest-serving Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom?

Liz Truss in 2022 became the shortest-serving Prime Minister racking up just 44 days. 

The record has been held by George Canning, he served for just 119 days. He was only 57 when he died in office.

Prime Minister Days In Office Party
Liz Truss 44 Days Conservative
George Canning 119 days Tory
The Viscount Goderich 144 days Tory
Bonar Law 211 days Conservative
The Duke of Devonshire 225 days Whig
The Earl of Shelburne 266 days Whig
The Earl of Bute 317 days Tory
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Who are the longest-serving Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom?

The longest-serving PM is Sir Robert Walpole, he was in office between 1721 and 1742.  

Prime Minister Days In Office Party
Tony Blair 10 years, 56 days Labour
Henry Pelham 10 years, 191 days Whig
Margaret Thatcher 11 years, 208 days Conservative
Lord North 12 years, 58 days Tory
William Ewart Gladstone 12 years, 126 days Liberal
The Marquess of Salisbury 13 years, 252 days Conservative
The Earl of Liverpool 14 years, 305 days Tory
William Pitt the Younger 18 years, 343 days Tory
Sir Robert Walpole 20 years, 314 days Whig
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