Jake is a Football and Entertainment betting expert, with a Man City season ticket and a deep knowledge of reality TV betting angles
- Bookies make it 8/11 that Scotland votes yes in the potential 2023 independence referendum
- According to the odds there's just a 9% chance that a referendum takes place next year
- It's 1/8 that the next Scottish independence referendum takes place in 2025 or later
Bookies make it 8/11 that Scotland votes yes in the potential 2023 independence referendum
The Scottish independence referendum has been in the news again this week with the Supreme Court beginning their hearing on the independence vote.
It may well take months for the Supreme Court to reach a decision on whether the Scottish Government’s intention to hold another independence referendum is legal or not.
Bookies make it 8/11 that Scotland would vote yes if the 2023 independence referendum does go ahead but it looks unlikely that it will next year.
Smarkets give a whole host of odds around the Scottish indyref2 with Nicola Sturgeon wanting to hold the referendum in October 2023.
| Result of any 2023 Scottish Independence Referendum vote | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8/11 | 57.9% |
| No | 10/11 | 52.4% |
According to the betting odds, there's not much difference in probability between Yes or No winning the referendum vote.
No won the 2014 Scottish independence referendum with 55.3% of the vote.
If the Scottish independence referendum was to happen in 2023 then bookies feel that yes has a better chance of winning than no, with a 57.9% chance that yes wins the vote!
Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert - OLBG.com
According to the odds there's just a 9% chance that a referendum takes place next year
Bookies say there's a tiny chance of a Scottish independence referendum taking place in 2023 with odds of 10/1 that it happens next year.
The Scottish government currently have to get an agreement with the UK government which so far doesn't look like happening.
The SNP has put it to the Supreme Court to make arguments towards whether MSPs could set up a referendum themselves rather than get the full backing from the UK government.
| Scottish Indyref2 to take place on October 19th 2023 | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| No | 1/20 | 95.2% |
Scottish Independence Referendum Betting Odds
It's 1/8 that the next Scottish independence referendum takes place in 2025 or later
Looking further down the line at the Scottish independence referendum, bookies reckon that it'll be at least 2025 before we see it take place.
With odds as short as 1/8 any other date before 2025 at the earliest looks unlikely.
Ultimately though according to the odds there's little to choose between yes or no when it comes to any potential referendum in Scotland.
Bookies make it 1/8 that the Scottish independence referendum takes place in 2025 at the earliest with Indyref2 happening any time soon unlikely. The Supreme Court is currently deciding on the legal side of Indyref2.
Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert - OLBG.com
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