Editor-In-Chief with 20 years experience covering the betting angles to breaking news stories. Daily slots player, Portsmouth fan and League Snooker Player
Should you back the same football team every week. If you are a fan, then yes you should. If you are a fan that also likes a bet, then maybe and the reason we are not going to commit to the second of those statements is that we need to do some analysis first.
Analysis that comes in the shape of the 2021/22 La Liga season and with us taking a retrospective look at the results, we are also going to see if blind faith is a system that can lead to end-of-season profitability.
While to find out if this is the case or not, we have created this methodology:
METHODOLOGY
- £1 stakes
- £1 goes on each team to win their La Liga fixture, of which they are 380 in total
- If that team wins the game, their profit is logged and tallied up
- If either team draws or loses, a return of £0 is recorded
- With each team playing 38 matches each, we will then observe the overall profit/loss for each.
This means now we have created the methodology, the results look something like this:
Team | Units | Winnings | Profit | ROI |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cadiz | 38 | 46.98 | 8.98 | 23.63% |
Betis | 38 | 43.01 | 5.01 | 13.18% |
Real Madrid | 38 | 42.91 | 4.91 | 12.92% |
Elche | 38 | 39.67 | 1.67 | 4.39% |
Barcelona | 38 | 36.87 | -1.13 | -2.97% |
Ath Madrid | 38 | 35.94 | -2.06 | -5.42% |
Vallecano | 38 | 35.75 | -2.25 | -5.92% |
Sevilla | 38 | 35.5 | -2.5 | -6.58% |
Osasuna | 38 | 34.45 | -3.55 | -9.34% |
Mallorca | 38 | 34.05 | -3.95 | -10.39% |
Sociedad | 38 | 31.64 | -6.36 | -16.74% |
Villarreal | 38 | 31.13 | -6.87 | -18.08% |
Granada | 38 | 30.87 | -7.13 | -18.76% |
Celta | 38 | 30.71 | -7.29 | -19.18% |
Ath Bilbao | 38 | 30.07 | -7.93 | -20.87% |
Levante | 38 | 29.95 | -8.05 | -21.18% |
Valencia | 38 | 28.85 | -9.15 | -24.08% |
Espanol | 38 | 26.71 | -11.29 | -29.71% |
Alaves | 38 | 26.5 | -11.5 | -30.26% |
Getafe | 38 | 22.3 | -15.7 | -41.32% |
A cause for celebration if you are a Cadiz fan, not only because they avoided relegation at the end of last season but because they are the team that generated the most profit from using £1 stakes per game week.
If you were to back Cadiz 38 times over and spend £38 in the process, your winnings at the end of the season would be £46.98 (£8.98 profit) and this would also mean a return of investment of 23.63% - impressive work from the relative minnows.
Not only that but Cadiz’s profits are far into the distance when compared to any of their Spanish footballing counterparts and with Betis lying second in our table, they only generated £5.01 in profit by comparison.
Then again, profit is still profit and this is something that certainly should not be sniffed at. While the reason for this profit is due to Betis’ ability to turn the Estadio Benito Villamarín into something of a fortress.
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Of the 19 home league fixtures that they contested last season, they managed to win 10 and with such an impressive record, it generated an ROI of 13.18% for Sevilla’s nearest rivals – who themselves generated a -6.58% loss.
While Betis achievements may have cultivated more profit than that of Real Madrid, the latter will still have another La Liga crown to soften the blow and what is surprising here, is a title-winning team managing to generate so much of a profit.
Usually, a team that is chasing the title will subsequently be given rather short odds going into any La Liga match and this was certainly the case as far as Real Madrid were concerned. However, the best way to burst through this is by hardly dropping any points all season.
Admittedly it was something of a one-horse race, as Barcelona failed to get their house in order early on and had install Xavi part way through the campaign. However, the horse named Los Blancos was still focused enough to earn £42.91 in overall winnings.
With 26 wins being recorded by Carlo Ancelotti’s men – 13 at home and 13 away, it is the latter bunch that would push up the profits even further and with the average pre-match odds being 19/20 before a clash away from the Santiago Bernabeu, this boosted the end of season returns.
An ROI of 12.92% would have been generated via backing Real Madrid each week and any original £38 outlay would have put an additional £4.91 in your back pocket. Giving their supporters another reason to gloat when in the company of their Barcelona counterparts.
Although Barcelona’s ship was finally steadied under Xavi, the beginning of the season was something of a disaster and with dropped points being recorded with reckless abandon, it also abandoned any hopes of recording a profit with this system.
If you were to place a total of £38 on Barcelona during the 2021/22 season, it would only see a return of £36.87 and with a shortage of £1.13 in the overall balance, it also meant -2.97% when it comes to ROI.
A value that puts them above Atletico Madrid who themselves lost £2.06 over the course of the season when using £1 stakes but below Elche who were another surprise act to return a profit at the end of the campaign - £1.67.
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AT THE BOTTOM
If Elche can be proud of their efforts, the same cannot be said for Getafe and with only eight wins to their name all season, an outlay of £38 would only return £22.30. This would mean your investment would shrink by 41.32%
A hefty figure for a team that was not even relegated and with that in mind, we should focus on the three teams that did suffer the drop at the end of last season. At the bottom of the table were Alaves and they are second bottom when it comes to profit.
Once again, they were team that only earned eight league wins last season – the joint lowest in the division and as well as suffering demotion to Spain’s second tier, they also recorded a -30.26% ROI after a £38 outlay.
Joining them in the second tier are Levante who only generated £29.95 by the time the season came to an end and although Granada managed to generate £30.87 by comparison, they were also consigned to relegation at the end of the campaign.
TIME TO COMPARE
Team | ROI | Profit Rank | League Rank | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
Valencia | -24.08% | 17 | 9 | 8 |
Ath Bilbao | -20.87% | 15 | 8 | 7 |
Sociedad | -16.74% | 11 | 6 | 5 |
Villarreal | -18.08% | 12 | 7 | 5 |
Getafe | -41.32% | 20 | 15 | 5 |
Sevilla | -6.58% | 8 | 4 | 4 |
Espanol | -29.71% | 18 | 14 | 4 |
Barcelona | -2.97% | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Ath Madrid | -5.42% | 6 | 3 | 3 |
Celta | -19.18% | 14 | 11 | 3 |
Real Madrid | 12.92% | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Osasuna | -9.34% | 9 | 10 | -1 |
Alaves | -30.26% | 19 | 20 | -1 |
Betis | 13.18% | 2 | 5 | -3 |
Levante | -21.18% | 16 | 19 | -3 |
Vallecano | -5.92% | 7 | 12 | -5 |
Granada | -18.76% | 13 | 18 | -5 |
Mallorca | -10.39% | 10 | 16 | -6 |
Elche | 4.39% | 4 | 13 | -9 |
Cadiz | 23.63% | 1 | 17 | -16 |
We can also add further context to our betting system analysis and the way to do this, is by comparing the ranks in the profit table above to that of the final standings of the 2021/22 La Liga season.
In doing so, we can see if there is a correlation between the two factors and highlight which teams over or underachieved when it comes to trying to return a profit. While the biggest story in terms of lack of profits can be found at the Mestalla.
Although Valencia managed to earn themselves a ninth-place finish, they were only 17th when it comes to overall profitability. If you were to stake the same £38 on Valencia as everyone else, your investment would have shrunk by almost a quarter by the end of the season.
While there was no real reason for celebration at the San Mames either and even though Athletic Bilbao finished a position higher than Valencia in eighth, your £38 investment in the Basque Country outfit would have shrunk by a fifth by the end of the season.
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Not to forget Barcelona and Atletico Madrid either and with the pair finding themselves on Real Madrid’s coattails for the season, they each had to make do with being three places worse off when comparing their profit rank to their league placing.
At the other end of the spectrum, there is an air of positivity sweeping through Cadiz – or at least there was before the start of this season and with them being 16 places better off when comparing profit to league standing, they are leaps and bounds above the rest of La Liga.
Of the teams that also recorded profit from the £38 outlay, Betis found themselves three positions better off in comparison and Elche nine. While we should not forget champions Real Madrid, who had to make do with being two places worse off.
This means before we conclude, we should highlight just how Cadiz beat the bookmakers and the reason comes in the shape of two impressive away wins. One at Celta Vigo, which saw their second away outing of the season return a 6/1 win.
The second was an even more surprising win at Camp Nou and before their trip to Barcelona, Cadiz were priced at 14/1 to come out on top. Something they achieved and were it not for that, the story at the top of the profit table would be far different.