Writer, analyst, podcaster, Spurs fan. Three out of four is not bad. If there is a data angle, I will find it.
The fact remains and will always remain that betting blindly on one club to win each time they play is not a good betting strategy, however, as one might expect, some teams will perform better over the course of a period of time than others, and throw in a couple of shocks and you might find profit to be had with bookmakers.
Backing Scottish Football Teams Blind!
We have taken a look at results and odds in the Scottish Premiership to come up with some data sets showing just what return you would have gotten from backing a team to win blind in every game.
2023/24 SEASON RESULTS
| Team | Units | Winnings | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts | 38 | 53.01 | 15.01 | 39.50% |
| Kilmarnock | 38 | 40.13 | 2.13 | 5.61% |
| Celtic | 38 | 38.74 | 0.74 | 1.95% |
| Motherwell | 38 | 38.18 | 0.18 | 0.47% |
| Aberdeen | 38 | 35.15 | -2.85 | -7.50% |
| St Mirren | 38 | 34.93 | -3.07 | -8.08% |
| Rangers | 38 | 34.72 | -3.28 | -8.63% |
| St Johnstone | 38 | 31.5 | -6.5 | -17.11% |
| Ross County | 38 | 31.3 | -6.7 | -17.63% |
| Dundee | 38 | 24.7 | -13.3 | -35.00% |
| Hibernian | 38 | 22.51 | -15.49 | -40.76% |
| Livingston | 38 | 15.65 | -22.35 | -58.82% |
Here we can see that the usual Glasgow duopoly has been broken, and it is Hearts who have earned the crown of being the most profitable club from a betting point of view. The Tynecastle outfit managed to finish third and the best of the non-Glasgow rest, and home performances put punters in the black.
While the main reason that Hearts finds themselves as the kings of betting profitability is due to picking up a home and away win over Celtic - get the better of the Hoops and profitability for the season will not be all that far away.
Not only did Hearts manage to get the better of Celtic at Tynecastle and Celtic Park, but they also managed a final day draw with Rangers in front of their own support and as a consequence, the Edinburgh side finished the season with a total of £53.01 - a profit of £15.01 and an ROI of 39.50%
Breaking the Glasgow Duopoly
While the string of impressive performances against the big two means Hearts were clear at the top of the profit table by a considerable distance. There were only four teams who generated profit by the end of the campaign. Kilmarnock were the team that had to make do with second, as they generated just £2.13 profit and an ROI of 5.61%
That figure was still more than champions Celtic and although there was a period where results were continually going against them, they did manage to keep hold of their Scottish Premiership crown and they returned a small profit of 74p for their troubles. The only other team to be in the black was Motherwell and although they did generate profit, it was a paltry sum of 18p.
Kilmarnock: Profitability Runner Up
While we cannot overlook the other Glasgow giants and in what was another season of playing second best, shock results that would lead to the eventual sacking of former boss Michael Beale and see them fail to generate a profit at the end of the season. The Ibrox outfit were only seventh in the list with a loss of £3.28 and a negative ROI of 3.28%
However, it shoud be noted that the end of season split does skew the opportunity to generate profit and this is where Motherwell have found fortune. Because they were in the bottom half of the table and mopped up results against the relegation candidates of the division, this would explain why the tipped themselves into a small profit.
HOW TO LOSE MONEY QUICKLY
Of course, for every winning the story some have lost out and when you look at Livingston, they have lost out in the most significant way of all. Relegated to the Scottish Championship for 2022/25, a significant loss on any £38 investment and an eye-watering one at that.
A £38 outlay would only return £15.65 and with your pockets being £22.35 lighter, this would represent a 58.82% loss for anyone who decided they wanted to back the struggling Tony Macaroni Arena side week in and week out.
Livingston: A Lesson in Losses💔
Things were not a great deal better of Hibernian either. Not quite on the scale of Livingston's deficit but in a season where they sacked ailing manager Nick Montgomery, the Easter Road outfit had to make do with a loss of £15.49 and a negative ROI of 40.76%
As for Dundee, they missed out on European football and also had to make do with being the third-least profitable club in the division. They may have got the better of Rangers in the final few weeks of the season but they still generated a loss of £13.30 and a negative ROI of 35%
DRAWING THE COMPARISONS
| Team | ROI | Profit Rank | League Rank | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | -8.63% | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| Dundee | -35.00% | 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Hibernian | -40.76% | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| Celtic | 1.95% | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| St Mirren | -8.08% | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Livingston | -58.82% | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Hearts | 39.50% | 1 | 3 | -2 |
| Kilmarnock | 5.61% | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| Aberdeen | -7.50% | 5 | 7 | -2 |
| St Johnstone | -17.11% | 8 | 10 | -2 |
| Ross County | -17.63% | 9 | 11 | -2 |
| Motherwell | 0.47% | 4 | 9 | -5 |
While another way to measure the success of these clubs or the lack thereof, is by looking at how the ranks in the end-of-season profit table compare against the final positions in the 2023/24 Scottish Premiership.
Rangers are the team that has the biggest disparity between where they finished and how profitable they were across the course of the season. Second in the overall standings, seventh when it comes to profitability – a difference of five places.
Next up is Dundee who finished sixth in the Scottish Premiership and tenth in the profitability table. A disparity of four places.
There was a neat cascade of numerical values in terms of difference in the top half of this ranking. Five places down to zero. Rangers through to Livingston, all clubs with one less position of disparity than the team before.
The team with the most positive swing between league placing and profit ranking was Motherwell. They may have only finished ninth in last season’s Scottish Premiership, as we now know they were the fourth most profitable club when using our betting methodology.
This means if you were to follow this system, then the key to profitability is hoping that the giants of the Scottish game have an off day and if they do, the road to end-of-season profit becomes very much on.
Methodology and Editorial Information
This article was researched and fact-checked by Dan Tracey who also then added the words - Dan is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites, including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal
Data from https://www.football-data.co.uk/
METHODOLOGY
- £1 stakes
- £1 goes on each team to win their Scottish Premiership fixture, of which they are 228 in total
- If that team wins the game, their profit is logged and tallied up
- If either team draws or loses, a return of £0 is recorded
- With each team playing 38 matches each, we will then observe the overall profit/loss for each.
