James has worked for the jockey club and has 20 years sports betting experience he utilises his skills in our tipster competitions and writes sports betting content.
If we want a ranking system to help us bet successfully on the World Cup, then we should look at the ones available to us and decide what we think of them.
If they are good enough, then it would be a waste of time to invent one of our own, if they aren't then at least we can learn from the existing rankings and we have a starting point from which to make our own ranking system.
The obvious ranking to start with is the one done by FIFA, this has been updated, revised and amended over the years.
Many bettors use the rankings when considering placing their football bets,
If there are issues with how the rankings are collated then this could lead to betting mistakes or give you the ability to profit from the best betting sites if the bookmakers odds are out of kilter.
The Best Football Betting Sites
Below is the latest update on the FIFA Website.
"After a long period testing and analysing the best way to calculate the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, a new model took effect in August 2018 after approval by the FIFA Council.
This new version developed by FIFA was named "SUM" as it relies on adding/subtracting points won or lost for a game to/from the previous point totals rather than averaging game points over a given time period as in the previous version of the World Ranking.
The points which are added or subtracted are partially determined by the relative strength of the two opponents, including the logical expectation that teams higher in the ranking should fare better against teams lower in the ranking."
The formula is P = Pbefore + I * (W – We)
Points before the match + I: importance of match
I= 05 Friendly matches played outside of International Match Calendar windows
I= 10 Friendly matches played during International Match Calendar windows
I= 15 Group phase matches of Nations League competitions
I= 25 Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions
I= 25 Qualification matches for Confederations final competitions and for FIFA World Cup final competitions
I= 35 Confederation final competition matches up until the QF stage
I= 40 Confederation final competition matches from the QF stage onwards; all FIFA Confederations Cup matches
I= 50 FIFA World Cup final competition matches up until QF stage
I= 60 FIFA World Cup final competition matches from QF stage onwards
W: result of the match: 1 = win; 0.5 = draw; 0 = defeat
We: expected result of the match
FIFA Ranking Issues
Is it more difficult to beat Spain in the World Cup Finals than it is in the UEFA Nation's cup? I don't think that it is at all.
Are Confederations Cup games really three times as important as friendlies and 50% more important than qualifiers for the big competitions? My answer here would also be no.
Also the FIFA system takes no notice of how important an individual game is in the context of a competition.
Were Spain to win their first two games in the World Cup and know going into their game with Australia that they had already qualified, would an Australian win in that game really mean as much as beating Spain in the World Cup Final?
Again in my eyes the answer is no, but in this scenario Australia would get the same credit for a win that any team would get for beating Spain at the World Cup Finals.
The FIFA system quite rightly tries to differentiate between games against easier and more difficult opposition, but it also does this in a strange way.
A team's ranking is used for this purpose but there is then also an adjustment made for the confederation of which the team is a member.
Presumably FIFA thinks that its rankings are correct, so why then is it necessary to use a coefficient for the different confederations?
It is true that some confederations contain stronger sides than others do, but surely the relative merits of the individual sides are dealt with in their ranking.
If a team from Oceana were to become the best team in the world, it would be right that a team that was then able to beat them would get maximum credit.
Under the FIFA system they would get 15% less credit for this feat purely on the basis that the best team in the world was from Oceana and not a member of the European or South American confederations.
Admittedly FIFA do review the coefficients and would probably raise Oceana's coefficient in the case that one of its teams became the best in the world, but if the rest of Oceana remains similar to the way it is now in terms of quality, then there would still be a penalty for beating a team from that confederation, even if they were the strongest team in the world.
Similarly, a team from Europe or South America is valued highly in the FIFA system, even if it isn't one of the stronger teams.
Lastly, the FIFA system takes no account of certain things that I think are quite important.
It is ignored entirely whether games are played at home, in the opposition's country or in a neutral country.
Similarly no account is taken of the winning margin in a game, if a team beats Spain 10-0 that is very different too winning 3-2 for example, but exactly the same amount of credit would be given in those two scenarios.
There is also absolutely no credit given to a team for a defeat even if it is a narrow one against a side that is relatively strong side.
This is the second in a series of blogs about international football rankings, you can read the previous blog here and the next blog here
