Writer, analyst, podcaster, Spurs fan. Three out of four is not bad. If there is a data angle, I will find it.
THE FINAL COUNTDOWN
Rugby league has Hull KR, Warrington, Wigan, and Leigh serving as this season's final four active teams. Wigan are currently favourites to lift another Super League trophy.
They are certainly no strangers to doing so, and although some may consider the 1990s to be what was then just Wigan's golden era, the now Wigan Warriors have also tasted the ultimate success in Rugby League's shiny Super League era.
The sport may have made several attempts to expand outside the M62 corridor, and although each of those attempts in the Super League era has largely been a failure—with the exception of Catalan Dragons—it is still a huge hit in the sport's heartlands in the North of England.
A heartland that has not only produced a great Wigan side but also St Helens and Leeds, who have in turn created their own dynasties within Super League and with 26 previous Grand Finals played to date, here is a look at each of them:
| Year | Winners | Winning Score | Losing Score | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | Wigan | 10 | 4 | Leeds |
| 1999 | St Helens | 8 | 6 | Bradford |
| 2000 | St Helens | 29 | 16 | Wigan |
| 2001 | Bradford | 37 | 6 | Wigan |
| 2002 | St Helens | 19 | 18 | Bradford |
| 2003 | Bradford | 25 | 12 | Wigan |
| 2004 | Leeds | 16 | 8 | Bradford |
| 2005 | Bradford | 15 | 6 | Leeds |
| 2006 | St Helens | 26 | 4 | Hull |
| 2007 | Leeds | 33 | 6 | St Helens |
| 2008 | Leeds | 24 | 16 | St Helens |
| 2009 | Leeds | 18 | 10 | St Helens |
| 2010 | Wigan | 22 | 10 | St Helens |
| 2011 | Leeds | 32 | 16 | St Helens |
| 2012 | Leeds | 26 | 18 | Warrington |
| 2013 | Wigan | 30 | 16 | Warrington |
| 2014 | St Helens | 14 | 6 | Wigan |
| 2015 | Leeds | 22 | 20 | Wigan |
| 2016 | Wigan | 12 | 6 | Warrington |
| 2017 | Leeds | 24 | 6 | Castleford |
| 2018 | Wigan | 12 | 4 | Warrington |
| 2019 | St Helens | 23 | 6 | Salford |
| 2020 | St Helens | 8 | 4 | Wigan |
| 2021 | St Helens | 12 | 10 | Catalans |
| 2022 | St Helens | 24 | 12 | Leeds |
| 2023 | Wigan | 10 | 2 | Catalans |
From 1998 through to 2023, it is success for Wigan that has bookmarked each of the 24 finals that have taken place between and for the exception of the 2020 Grand Final which was played at the KCom Stadium in Hull due to Covid, it is Old Trafford that has been home to many magical Super League memories.
Super League Rugby: Wigan Warriors Vs Hull KR at Brick Stadium. Credit James Giblin/Alamy Live News.
Memories that include a threepeat from Leeds between 2007 and 2009 and then St Helens going one better with the four successive Super League final wins between 2019 and 2022. No longer the kings of Super League but certainly an institution when it comes to the Grand Final, it is the Merseyside club that rules the roost when it comes to outright Super League final victories:
| Club | Winners | Runners-up | Years won | Years runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 10 | 5 | 1996, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2014, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 | 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 |
| Leeds Rhinos | 8 | 3 | 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017 | 1998, 2005, 2022 |
| Wigan Warriors | 6 | 6 | 1998, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2018, 2023 | 2000, 2001, 2003, 2014, 2015, 2020 |
| Bradford Bulls | 4 | 3 | 1997, 2001, 2003, 2005 | 1999, 2002, 2004 |
| Warrington Wolves | 0 | 4 | 2012, 2013, 2016, 2018 | |
| Catalans Dragons | 0 | 2 | 2021, 2023 | |
| Hull F.C. | 0 | 1 | 2006 | |
| Castleford Tigers | 0 | 1 | 2017 | |
| Salford Red Devils | 0 | 1 | 2019 |
*1996 and 1997 league runners-up not listed
Of the 26 finals that have been contested to date, St Helens have appeared in 14 of them and even though they will not be adding to that tally in 2024, their current return trips to the Grand Final means that they appeared in 53.8% of the finals to date. 14 in total and 14 that are made up of nine wins and five runner-up berths since.
However, the glory does not stop there either and with the 1996 and 1997 Super League seasons being played in a straight league format. St Helens also won the inaugural season of Rugby League's dramatic breakaway from its traditions.
10 titles in total since 1996, two better off than Leeds with eight. 11 times that they have reached the Grand Final, only losing out on three seperate occasions.
While when it comes to losers, it is Wigan who have to deal with the greatest heartbreak in the Super League final. Six defeats on the grandest stage of them all, disappointment which is lessened by just as many Grand Final wins and the chance to make it seven in 2024.
In all, nine clubs have made it to a Grand Final to date, with only four in total being crowned winners. The other side to have also lifted the trophy are Bradford and to go alongside their 1997 league format win, they also managed Grand Final wins in 2001, 2003 and 2005.
This means the quintet of Warrington, Catalans, Hull FC, Castleford and Salford make up the list of teams that have reached the promised land of the Grand Final but failed to make the most important step when it matters most.
Super League 2024 Betting Odds
Here are the odds with online betting sites for the Super League outright winners in 2024.
| Selection | Probability | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wigan | 55.6% | 1.80 |
| 2 | Hull KR | 44.4% | 2.25 |
| 3 | Leigh | 7.7% | 13.00 |
KEEPING UP ATTENDANCES
2022 Grand Final // Credit: Craig Cresswell / Alamy Stock Photo
While there is no doubt that the Super League final is one of the key dates on the October sporting calendar and with it being scheduled within footballl's international break, it also means tickets have a habit of flying out the doors before the two respective sides meet at Old Trafford. Which leads us to this table that looks at the attendance of each Grand Final from highest to lowest:
| Year | Winners | Runner-up | Attendance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Leeds | Wigan | 73,512 |
| 2017 | Leeds | Castleford | 72,827 |
| 2006 | St Helens | Hull | 72,575 |
| 2010 | Wigan | St Helens | 71,526 |
| 2007 | Leeds | St Helens | 71,352 |
| 2012 | Leeds | Warrington | 70,676 |
| 2016 | Wigan | Warrington | 70,202 |
| 2014 | St Helens | Wigan | 70,102 |
| 2011 | Leeds | St Helens | 69,107 |
| 2008 | Leeds | St Helens | 68,810 |
| 2013 | Wigan | Warrington | 66,281 |
| 2005 | Bradford | Leeds | 65,728 |
| 2004 | Leeds | Bradford | 65,547 |
| 2003 | Bradford | Wigan | 65,537 |
| 2018 | Wigan | Warrington | 64,892 |
| 2019 | St Helens | Salford | 64,102 |
| 2009 | Leeds | St Helens | 63,259 |
| 2002 | St Helens | Bradford | 61,138 |
| 2022 | St Helens | Leeds | 60,783 |
| 2001 | Bradford | Wigan | 60,164 |
| 2023 | Wigan | Catalans | 58,137 |
| 2000 | St Helens | Wigan | 58,132 |
| 1999 | St Helens | Bradford | 50,717 |
| 2021 | St Helens | Catalans | 45,177 |
| 1998 | Wigan | Leeds | 43,533 |
| 2020 | St Helens | Wigan | 0 |
As we can see it is the 2015 final between Leeds and Wigan which is top of the pile. An attendance of 73,512 saw the Rhinos get the better of the Warriors that evening and in doing so, it beat the then record of 72,575 that entered the turnstiles for the 2006 final between St Helens and Hull.
Two years after Leeds were playing a substantial part in breaking attendance records, they and Castleford Tigers nearly topped it once again. This time, the attendance was 72,827 by comparison and it is now one of eight attendances that have topped the 70,000 mark.
A mark that is a considerable rise from the first ever Super League final in 1998. That year's win for Wigan at the expense of Leeds saw 43,533 at Old Trafford. Compared to the now highest figure recorded, it is an increase of 68.8%
While when looking at the average final attendance excluding the 2020 final, the figure currently stands at 64,153. Add the 2020 final into the equation and the figure drops to 61,685.
Regardless of the figure that is chosen, the average final attendance has climbed to 47,3% higher than the first ever final in 1998.
POINT TO POINT
Another interesting marker when it comes to the Super League Grand Final is the number of points that each final has generated:
| Year | Total Points | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 48 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2013 | 46 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2000 | 45 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2012 | 44 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2001 | 43 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2015 | 42 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2008 | 40 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2007 | 39 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2002 | 37 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2003 | 37 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2022 | 36 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2010 | 32 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2006 | 30 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2017 | 30 | ABOVE AVERAGE |
| 2019 | 29 | BELOW AVERAGE |
| 2009 | 28 | BELOW AVERAGE |
| 2004 | 24 | BELOW AVERAGE |
| 2021 | 22 | BELOW AVERAGE |
| 2005 | 21 | BELOW AVERAGE |
| 2014 | 20 | BELOW AVERAGE |
| 2016 | 18 | BELOW AVERAGE |
| 2018 | 16 | BELOW AVERAGE |
| 1998 | 14 | BELOW AVERAGE |
| 1999 | 14 | BELOW AVERAGE |
| 2020 | 12 | BELOW AVERAGE |
| 2023 | 12 | BELOW AVERAGE |
| Average | 30 |
The record high was in 2011 when Leeds and St Helens shared 48 points between them - 32 in favour of the former. The record low was recorded in both 2020 and 2023 when only 12 points were placed on the board in total.
Those two years saw the Covid-final of 2020 generate St Helens score just eight points and Wigan half that number. Three years later, Wigan won by an eigh-point margin at the expense of the Catalan Dragons (10-2).
This means that at the time of writing, the average points in the final is 30. Of the 26 Grand Finals that have taken place to date, 14 of them have recorded an above average tally, 12 have been below average.
If they are the record highs and lows, what about the margin of victory. How many games have gone down to the wire?
| Year | Winners | Winning Score | Losing Score | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Bradford | 37 | 6 | Wigan | 31 |
| 2007 | Leeds | 33 | 6 | St Helens | 27 |
| 2006 | St Helens | 26 | 4 | Hull | 22 |
| 2017 | Leeds | 24 | 6 | Castleford | 18 |
| 2019 | St Helens | 23 | 6 | Salford | 17 |
| 2011 | Leeds | 32 | 16 | St Helens | 16 |
| 2013 | Wigan | 30 | 16 | Warrington | 14 |
| 2000 | St Helens | 29 | 16 | Wigan | 13 |
| 2003 | Bradford | 25 | 12 | Wigan | 13 |
| 2010 | Wigan | 22 | 10 | St Helens | 12 |
| 2022 | St Helens | 24 | 12 | Leeds | 12 |
| 2005 | Bradford | 15 | 6 | Leeds | 9 |
| 2004 | Leeds | 16 | 8 | Bradford | 8 |
| 2008 | Leeds | 24 | 16 | St Helens | 8 |
| 2009 | Leeds | 18 | 10 | St Helens | 8 |
| 2012 | Leeds | 26 | 18 | Warrington | 8 |
| 2014 | St Helens | 14 | 6 | Wigan | 8 |
| 2018 | Wigan | 12 | 4 | Warrington | 8 |
| 2023 | Wigan | 10 | 2 | Catalans | 8 |
| 1998 | Wigan | 10 | 4 | Leeds | 6 |
| 2016 | Wigan | 12 | 6 | Warrington | 6 |
| 2020 | St Helens | 8 | 4 | Wigan | 4 |
| 1999 | St Helens | 8 | 6 | Bradford | 2 |
| 2015 | Leeds | 22 | 20 | Wigan | 2 |
| 2021 | St Helens | 12 | 10 | Catalans | 2 |
| 2002 | St Helens | 19 | 18 | Bradford | 1 |
2001 saw a 37-6 final defeat for Wigan at the hands of Bradford - a brusing 31-point margin of defeat.
That 31-point margin is four more than the 27 that Leeds managed to put between themselves and St Helens in 2007 after their 33-6 win and in turn it is five more than the 22 that St Helens put between themselves and Hull FC in 2006 after a 26-4 the year before.
Three whitewashes in the history books but 15 of the finals have seen the winner win by single figures in terms of winning margin. They do not get much closer than the two points that seperated Leeds and Wigan in the 2015 final after the former won 22-20 or the 12-10 win that St Helens recorded over Catalans six years later.
However, the 2002 final between St Helens and Bradford was even narrower in terms of margin. A single point the difference and Sean Long's drop goal the reason for it.
When looking at the average margin of victory in the Grand Final, the figure currently stands at 11 but even if it is a point that serves as the margin of victory in the 2024 Grand Final, the eventual victor will not care all that much.
