Melbourne Cup Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Melbourne Cup Carnival)

2024 Melbourne Cup Preview

The Melbourne Cup is open to three-year-old runners or older it is run over two miles at Flemington Racecourse, a left-handed track on the turf. The race is known as 'the race that stops a nation' and is the most valuable two-mile handicap in the world. The race is part of the Melbourne Spring Carnival. The race was first run back in 1861 and in 2018 had a purse of $8m! Winners of the Doncaster Cup and Irish St Leger are eligible for guaranteed entry in the race.

Melbourne Cup Information:

• Melbourne Cup Past Winners
• Melbourne Cup Trainer Statistics
• Melbourne Cup Jockey Statistics

We also have a dedicated Flemington tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival section for links to these.

How competitive is the Melbourne Cup market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2009 when the race had an over-round of 110%. The race in 2020 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 121%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Melbourne Cup, the over-round has been 117%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £117 which is bet.

Melbourne Cup Trends:

• 2024 Melbourne Cup Trends
• Melbourne Cup Trend Analysis

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Melbourne Cup next time out then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 18 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -6.50. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

The runner that holds the record over the past 20 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2004 renewal when Makybe Diva from Lee Freedman under the guidance of Glen Boss, won in a time of 3:28.55, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Twilight Payment, trained by Joseph Patrick O'Brien and ridden by Jye McNeil set the quickest time of 3:17.34 in the 2020 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Melbourne Cup over the last 20 renewals:

• 2020 - Twilight Payment (3:17.34)
• 2021 - Verry Elleegant (3:17.43)
• 2014 - Protectionist (3:17.71)

Melbourne Cup Past Winners

Here are the Melbourne Cup past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Melbourne Cup as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Melbourne Cup have been based:

• AUS: 11 winners with an additional 30 placings from 283 runners
• IRE: 2 winners with an additional 10 placings from 45 runners
• FR: 2 winners with an additional 1 placing from 9 runners
• SIN: 2 winners with an additional 0 placings from 6 runners
• GB: 1 winner with an additional 15 placings from 73 runners
• JPN: 1 winner with an additional 1 placing from 11 runners
• GER: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
• NZ: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 21 runners
• HK: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 10 runners
• SAF: 0 winners with an additional 1 placing from 2 runners

Melbourne Cup Trainer Statistics

There are multiple leading trainers in the Melbourne Cup over the last 20 renewals with Robert Hickmott, Joseph Patrick O'Brien and Lee Freedman having all won the race two times. Robert Hickmott's winners have been Green Moon (2012) and Almandin (2016). Joseph Patrick O'Brien winners have been with Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020). Lee Freedman winners have been with Makybe Diva (2004 & 2005). Multiple trainers have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Melbourne Cup, A P O'Brien (0-17), Saeed bin Suroor (0-14), Michael Moroney (0-13) and Luca Cumani (0-11) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple runners to the race.

Here are some of the top Melbourne Cup trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Melbourne Cup Jockey Statistics

There are multiple leading jockeys in the Melbourne Cup over the last 20 renewals with Kerrin McEvoy, Glen Boss, Corey Brown and Mark Zahra having all won the race two times. Kerrin McEvoy winners have been with Almandin (2016) and Cross Counter (2018). Glen Boss winners have been with Makybe Diva (2004 & 2005). Corey Brown's winners have been Shocking (2009) and Rekindling (2017). Mark Zahra's winners have been Gold Trip (2022) and Without A Fight (2023). Multiple jockeys have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Melbourne Cup, Dwayne Dunn (0-12), Hugh Bowman (0-11), Craig Newitt (0-11) and Luke Nolen (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple rides to the race.

Here are some of the top Melbourne Cup jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

2024 Melbourne Cup Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 1, (2, 19), 8, 7, 6, 3, 4, 14, 1, 22, 13, 3, (9, 12), 11, 7, 13, 2, 4, 14

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.

• 20 / 20 (73%) - Achieved an RPR of 104+ (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (78%) - Not in a LST/Cl2-5 (Last Win)
• 20 / 20 (78%) - No bigger than 16/1 (Career Win)
• 20 / 20 (81%) - Beaten no more -7l (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (83%) - Won by at least a head (Last Win)
• 20 / 20 (83%) - Achieved an RPR of 107+ (Last 3)
• 20 / 20 (84%) - Furthest Won 1m3f - 2mf
• 20 / 20 (84%) - Made 4 - 11 starts (1 Year)
• 20 / 20 (84%) - Not in CAN/DEU/HKG/ITA/NZL/SCO/UAE/USA (Last Win)
• 20 / 20 (84%) - Furthest ran 1m4f - 2mf
• 20 / 20 (85%) - Highest Placed is not G3/LST/Cl2
• 20 / 20 (86%) - In a field of 4 - 18 (Last Win)
• 20 / 20 (87%) - In a field of 8 - 18 (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (87%) - Fewer than 12 starts (Hcps)
• 20 / 20 (88%) - Furthest Placed 1m4f - 2mf

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Flemington racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Melbourne Cup. If you are a newcomer to horse racing betting, then the number of types of bets can be scary! Don't let that put you off though, head over to this Types Of Horse Racing Bet article and have a read, you will then have a better knowledge of betting on racing in the future and there are plenty of other articles in the OLBG Betting School too.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Melbourne Cup by adding a tip on the race here.

Melbourne Cup Trend Analysis

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +98.50 is when runners had 1 place in the past 30 days. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners carried 119lbs, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-53.

Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:

• 2023: Winner in 16 (4,22,11) [23 Runners]
• 2022: Winner in 13 (3,8,9) [22 Runners]
• 2021: Winner in 18 (15,14,10) [23 Runners]
• 2020: Winner in 12 (22,1,5) [23 Runners]
• 2019: Winner in 21 (8,17,1) [24 Runners]

The course which has produced the most winners of the Melbourne Cup is Moonee Valley, there has been a total number of 7 winners of this race who ran at Moonee Valley last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Caulfield, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Caulfield last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 17 winners from a total of 406 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 3 winners from a total of 57 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Melbourne Cup:

• Monsun (3 Wins)
• Teofilo (3 Wins)
• Desert King (2 Wins)

These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Melbourne Cup despite multiple attempts:

• Galileo (0 Wins from 36 runners)
• Danehill (0 Wins from 9 runners)
• Frankel (0 Wins from 9 runners)
• Authorized (0 Wins from 7 runners)
• Cadeaux Genereux (0 Wins from 7 runners)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Prince Of Penzance in 2015, winning for Darren Weir at odds of 100/1 under the guidance of Michelle Payne. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 3 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2024 Melbourne Cup. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.

Races Covered during the Melbourne Cup Carnival

Here are the other races that take place at the Flemington Racetrack during the Melbourne Cup Carnival that we also cover with blogs.