Premier League Luck Index

The Final Standings

We can now see who the teams at the very top of the Luck Premier League table are and who are the outfits that have suffered relegation.

Newcastle: Champions of the Premier League of Luck

Newcastle stormed to the top of the Luck Index with a commanding 75.6 score out of 100, and in doing so, it crowned them champions in a season where fortune smiled on the Tyneside outfit from all angles.

Eddie Howe’s men led the league in the Net VAR Score category, earning a maximum of 25. This came courtesy of crucial interventions that turned tight games in their favour.

Add to that their 21.4 Late Goals Impact - one of the highest in the league, and there is no doubting the Magpies’ desire to give everything right up until the final whistle of any Premier League encounter.

Also, opponent errors played a pivotal role, with a 25 score reflecting how often their rivals gifted them key goals. When added to just a 4.2 Injury Impact score, Newcastle’s mix of good fortune and consistent availability helped drive them to the Premier League luck title.

Champions League Places

Aston Villa FC forward Marco Asensio shoots at goal during the Aston Villa FC v Club Brugge KV UEFA // Credit: Every Second Media / Alamy Stock Photo

Joining Newcastle at Europe’s top table are Aston Villa, Manchester City, and Brighton & Hove Albion, each propelled by a unique balance of luck and resilience and worthy enough to qualify for the Champions League of Luck.

Unai Emery’s Aston Villa thrived thanks to a Late Goals Impact score of 25—the best in the league. These goals in the dying seconds helped the West Midlands outfit earn Premier League points when it mattered most.

Their 15.625 Net VAR Score also kept them on the right side of officials' decisions. In addition, an 8.3 Injury Impact suggested they endured a fair share of absences but found ways to keep winning.

Manchester City rode their luck with a 20 Opponent Errors score, which played a considerable part in Pep Guardiola’s men finishing third in the Premier League of Luck. Their 14.3 Late Goals Impact proved they still had a knack for scoring late, keeping them in the Champions League places.

Brighton secured the fourth spot thanks to an impressive 21.4 Late Goals Impact, matching winners Newcastle in last-gasp heroics. The Seagulls also earned a 12.5 Net VAR and 4.2 Injury Impact scores, highlighting a decent amount of good fortune for the East Sussex-based side.

European Football Secured

Tottenham players celebrate after scoring a goal during the Exhibition match between Tottenham and Newcastle // IOIO IMAGES/shutterstock

If we award additional European places to the teams that finished fifth through seventh in the table, Tottenham, West Ham, and Liverpool earned the additional continental slots despite battling misfortune along the way.

Tottenham faced one of the worst seasons for injuries, with a 16.7 Injury Impact ranking second in the league. However, a 15.625 Net VAR Score and a 10.7 Late Goals Impact meant they stayed competitive, though their reliance on VAR decisions hints at how narrow their margins were.

West Ham posted an even 12.5 across both Net VAR Score and Injury Impact, indicating a balanced season in which they neither suffered nor gained excessively from luck. Their 14.3 Late Goals Impact proved decisive, though, keeping them above the chasing pack.

While champions elect in real life, Liverpool battled through a 12.5 Injury Impact but benefitted from a 17.9 Late Goals Impact score to finish seventh in the table. Their 6.25 Net VAR Score and limited opponent errors prevented them from climbing any higher.

The Rest Of The Top 10

Jeffrey Schlupp of Palace pictured during the 2021-22 Premier League matchweek 7 game between Crystal Palace FC and Leicester CIty FC at Selhurst Park // Copyright: Cosmin Iftode/Alamy

Crystal Palace, Arsenal, and Leicester rounded out the top half, reflecting very different fortune tales. The Eagles finished eighth thanks to a 15.625 Net VAR Score, one of the highest outside the top teams.

Arsenal’s campaign was defined by an enormous 20.8 Injury Impact, the highest of any team. Their 3.125 Net VAR Score and 3.6 Late Goals Impact made their top-half finish feel like an overachievement.

While Leicester found consistency after finishing 10^th in the luck table simultaneously, the Foxes lacked game-changing moments. A 12.5 Net VAR Score and 8.3 Injury Impact were balanced by a 10.7 Late Goals Impact, leaving them stuck in mid-table.

Relegation Battle

Robin Van Persie Manchester United

Dropping down to the bottom half of the table, the fight to stay afloat saw Manchester United, Bournemouth, Southampton, and Nottingham Forest scrape by in a season of mixed fortunes.

Manchester United earned just a 3.125 Net VAR Score, which, when added to a score of 0 for the Late Goals Impact criteria, meant a season of little luck was one to forget for Red Devils supporters.

Bournemouth’s score was boosted by a 7.1 Late Goals Impact, and their local neighbours Southampton posted a 12.5 Injury Impact score alongside a 10.7 Late Goals Impact, a combination that saw the Saints avoid the bottom three.

Although Nottingham Forest are flying in this season’s Premier League, they endured a brutal campaign, with a 6.25 Net VAR Score not doing the City Ground outfit any real favours. Their 10.7 Late Goals Impact kept them in the fight, but it was far from comfortable.

Just Survived

Fulham v Shakhtar Donetsk

While Fulham can count their blessings after escaping relegation with a 29.3 Luck Index Score — just enough to secure 17th place. Their 9.375 Net VAR Score helped turn close calls into points, but a 4.2 Injury Impact and 10.7 Late Goals Impact suggested they were often holding on rather than fighting back.

The Relegation Zone

West Ham United's manager David Moyes // shutterstock

But what about the three clubs who would have been relegated if the criteria was a lack of luck rather than points? Everton’s fortunes may have improved since the return of David Moyes as manager but that would be enough in the eyes of our criteria.

Everton’s 3.125 Net VAR Score and 12.5 Injury Impact left them with nothing else to fall back on in a bid to stay out of the bottom three. While their 7.1 Late Goals Impact wasn’t enough to save them from what was a largely miserable campaign finishing 18^th out of 20 Premier League teams.

Then again, Chelsea’s fall from grace was arguably more staggering and despite a 9.375 Net VAR Score and avoiding any injuries (0 Injury Impact), their 7.1 Late Goals Impact and lack of opponent errors (10) left them adrift.

Second bottom for the Stamford Bridge outfit and for all the money that has been spent under the watchful eye of new owner Todd Boehly, they would arguably trade that in for just the slightest addition when it comes to luck.

Bringing up the rear and considered the unluckiest team in the Premier League are Ipswich. Their 0 Net VAR Score, 16.7 Injury Impact, and 0 Opponent Errors left Kieran McKenna’s men with no safety net.

Add that they only registered 3.6 in terms of Late Goals Impact and this would not even been enough to provide a flicker of hope when it comes to luck. There was always a sense that the Tractor Boys were going to struggle in the Premier League, these numbers go some way to confirming it.

Methodology

The Luck Index combines several metrics to determine each team's fortune:

• VAR Decisions: Net impact of VAR interventions.
• Injuries: Matches missed by key players.
• Late Goals: Points gained or lost due to stoppage-time goals.
• Opponent Errors: Goals resulting from unforced errors by opponents.
• 
  

Scores were normalised to a 0-100 scale to create a fair comparison across all 20 Premier League teams.

Sources

VAR Decisions: ESPN

Injury Impact: Premier Injuries and GiveMeSport

Late Goals and Opponent Errors: Match reports and data from platforms like WhoScored and Opta Stats.