Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites
The Oxford English Dictionary definition of an outlier is: A person or thing situated away from or detached from the main body or system.
An Outlier in maths is a numeric value that lies outside most of the other values in a set or list of data.
For example in the list 1, 26, 29, 28, 72 24 22, 21, 25, 28, 24,
1 and 72 are outliers because they are away from the norm in this data list
When bookmakers create odds they are just another piece of data.
If you wish to know more about bookies and how they operate please check the guide to understanding bookmakers.
How Bookmakers Work and Create Odds
Bookmaker Betting Odds Example
When we read betting odds on odds comparison sites they are listed in various ways by date, time, league, sport.
Best Odds Guaranteed Sites UK – Compare 27 Bookies’ BOG Times & Offers
You can or should move these data sets around to look for idiosyncrasies (outliers) within that data.
Human beings are herd animals and do not like to veer too far away from the herd.
The odds compilers when setting their prices know they cannot move too far away from the herd (other bookmakers) for fear of being “knocked over” by punters looking for more generous odds.
Big bettors are constantly looking for small variations in price that they can take advantage of, especially in sports that have a worldwide following such as football.
If the best betting sites offer 4/1 on a selection when all other firms are 3/1 then all the business will be with them on their 4/1 shot and their liabilities will be out of kilter.
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The balance of their book will be lopsided, bookmakers main aim is to balance the book so they make a profit on whatever the outcome.
We as punters need to be looking for these lopsided books especially when the prices are first released.
Prices when initially posted by the bookmakers are a mixture of maths (balancing the books), what amount of money they expect on each selection, betting opinion, and inside information.
From different firms on an opening show of a football match you may see this:
| Match | Bookmaker 1 Odds | Match | Majority of Bookmakers Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 4.33 | Arsenal | 3.75 |
| Man City | 1.92 | Man City | 2 |
| Draw | 4 | Draw | 3.75 |
| % | 100.18% | % | 103.33% |
If the 3.75 on Arsenal is replicated by other firms then you can be fairly sure that the opening 4.33 will not last long as punters flock to that bigger priced bookmaker.
That bookmaker will feel they may have made a rick and their book will have a lopsided look to it, despite their initial opinion that Arsenal deserved to be that bigger price.
That 4.33 could be classed as an outlier because other firms were all much shorter.
If as punters we are always looking for value as we should be then taking these outlier prices should help us in our quest to beat the bookies.
Master the Art of Value Betting and Maximize Your Winnings
Whatever sport you bet on compare and contrast bookmaker prices.
Put yourself in the odds compilers shoes and always ask yourself “Why are they a stand out price?”
The Power of Odds Comparison: Ultimate Betting Odds Strategy Guide
If the figure in front of you is considered too big in relation to other firms, and you regard its % chance of winning as greater than the odds on offer then step in and make the bet.
When deciding on your bets look for the outliers !!
