Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2026 UAE Derby Preview
Established in 2000, the Group 2 UAE Derby is scheduled to take place in March of each year during the Dubai World Cup Night at the Meydan racecourse, the race is run over a trip of one mile, one and a half furlongs on the dirt and is open to runners aged 3yo+ (southern hemisphere) and 4yo+ (northern hemisphere).
UAE Derby Information:
We also have a dedicated Meydan tips page that will cover this race as well as all of the other races on the day of the race, see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are predicting to win this race and the others on the cards. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Races Covered at Dubai World Cup Night section for links to these.
Best Horse Racing Betting Sites 2025
How competitive is the UAE Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2016 when the race had an over-round of 112%. The race in 2017 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 125%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the UAE Derby, the over-round has been 120%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £120 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 UAE Derby Trends, see which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal, we also have a section that looks at the UAE Derby Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run UAE Derby over the last 10 renewals:
- Mendelssohn (1:55.18) in 2018
- Derma Sotogake (1:55.81) in 2023
- Rebels Romance (1:56.28) in 2021
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the UAE Derby next time out then you would have backed a total of 0 winners. Backing all 9 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -9.00. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2026 UAE Derby.
When looking over the past 10 renewals, a time of 1:55.18 was set by Mendelssohn in 2018, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by A P O'Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore. The slowest winning time was set in 2022 when Crown Pride won in a time of 1:59.76, booked to ride was Damian Lane by the trainer Koichi Shintani.
UAE Derby Past Winners
Here are the UAE Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the UAE Derby are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 1:59.13 | Admire Daytona (JPN) 3yo 9-0 (3 of 9) 11/1 | Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Yukihiro Kato (JPN) |
| 2024 1:57.89 | Forever Young (JPN) 3yo 8-9 (11 of 11) 8/11F | Ryusei Sakai Yoshito Yahagi (JPN) |
| 2023 1:55.81 | Derma Sotogake (JPN) 3yo 8-9 (1 of 13) 9/2 | Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Hidetaka Otonashi (JPN) |
| 2022 1:59.76 | Crown Pride (JPN) 3yo 8-9 (10 of 16) 12/1 | Damian Lane Koichi Shintani (JPN) |
| 2021 1:56.28 | Rebels Romance (IRE) 3yo 8-9 (11 of 14) 8/1 | William Buick Charlie Appleby (GB) |
| 2019 1:58.41 | Plus Que Parfait (USA) 3yo 9-0 (4 of 14) 25/1 | Jose L Ortiz Brendan P Walsh (USA) |
| 2018 1:55.18 | Mendelssohn (USA) 3yo 9-0 (4 of 9) 7/4 | Ryan Moore A P O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2017 1:57.76 | Thunder Snow (IRE) 3yo 8-9 (13 of 16) 11/4F | Christophe Soumillon Saeed bin Suroor (GB) |
| 2016 1:58.41 | Lani (USA) 3yo 8-9 (3 of 7) 12/1 | Yutaka Take Mikio Matsunaga (JPN) |
| 2015 1:58.35 | Mubtaahij (IRE) 3yo 8-9 (1 of 10) 9/4F | Christophe Soumillon M F De Kock (SAF) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the UAE Derby have been based:
- JPN: 5 winners with an additional 5 placings from 30 runners
- GB: 2 winners with an additional 4 placings from 18 runners
- USA: 1 winner with an additional 4 placings from 18 runners
- IRE: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 9 runners
- SAF: 1 winner with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners
- UAE: 0 winners with an additional 6 placings from 29 runners
- BRZ: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 4 runners
- KSA: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
- URU: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
- BHR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
- NOR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- RUS: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
UAE Derby Trainer Statistics
Here are some of the top UAE Derby trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| A P O'Brien | 9-1-1 | -6.25 | -6.95 |
| Saeed bin Suroor | 6-1-3 | -2.25 | -2.12 |
| Charlie Appleby | 5-1-1 | +4.00 | +0.80 |
| Mikio Matsunaga | 3-1-1 | +10.00 | +5.50 |
| M F De Kock | 3-1-1 | +0.25 | -0.65 |
| Koichi Shintani | 2-1-1 | +11.00 | +5.00 |
| Yukihiro Kato | 2-1-1 | +10.00 | +5.60 |
| Yoshito Yahagi | 2-1-2 | -0.27 | +2.44 |
| Brendan P Walsh | 1-1-1 | +25.00 | +15.00 |
| Hidetaka Otonashi | 1-1-1 | +4.50 | +2.70 |
UAE Derby Jockey Statistics
There are two leading jockeys in the UAE Derby over the last 10 renewals with both Christophe-Patrice Lemaire and Christophe Soumillon who have both won the race two times. Christophe-Patrice Lemaire winners have been with Derma Sotogake (2023) and Admire Daytona (2025). Christophe Soumillon winners have been with Mubtaahij (2015) and Thunder Snow (2017).
Here are some of the top UAE Derby jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christophe-Patrice Lemaire | 6-2-3 | +11.50 | +5.80 |
| Christophe Soumillon | 4-2-2 | +3.00 | +0.73 |
| William Buick | 7-1-1 | +2.00 | -1.20 |
| Ryan Moore | 7-1-2 | -4.25 | -4.23 |
| Yutaka Take | 3-1-1 | +10.00 | +5.50 |
| Ryusei Sakai | 3-1-3 | -1.27 | +3.04 |
| Jose L Ortiz | 1-1-1 | +25.00 | +15.00 |
| Damian Lane | 1-1-1 | +12.00 | +6.00 |
| Mickael Barzalona | 5-0-3 | -5.00 | -0.55 |
| Pat Dobbs | 5-0-2 | -5.00 | -3.27 |
2026 UAE Derby Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): (1, 3), 2, 1, 4, 13, (2, 6, 14), (11, 16), 10, 1, (2, 9)
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.
- 10 / 10 (60%) - In a field of 9 - 16 (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (65%) - Achieved an RPR of 100+ (Last 3)
- 10 / 10 (66%) - No bigger than 81/10 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (66%) - Not in ARG/BRA/ITA/RUS/SAU/SWE/UAE/URY (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - Highest Placed is not LST/Cl3
- 10 / 10 (74%) - Not in a G1/G3/Cl3/Cl6 (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (76%) - Off a break of 21 - 42 days
- 10 / 10 (76%) - No bigger than 25/1
- 10 / 10 (77%) - Within the first 9 of the market
- 10 / 10 (80%) - Is not ARG/BRZ/CAN/FR/GB/KSA/URU bred
- 10 / 10 (80%) - In a field of 6 - 14 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (82%) - Ran in 3 - 5 races (180 Days)
- 10 / 10 (84%) - Furthest Placed 1m - 1m1½f
- 10 / 10 (87%) - Ran over 6f - 1m1f (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (89%) - Had 2 - 5 placings (Career)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Meydan racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the UAE Derby. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the UAE Derby by adding a tip on the race here.
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UAE Derby Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor which had produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +36.23 is when runners had 1 career place on the going.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 3 starts in the past 90 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-33.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2025: Winner in 3 (6,1) [9 Runners]
- 2024: Winner in 11 (9,8) [11 Runners]
- 2023: Winner in 1 (8,12) [13 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 10 (8,3) [16 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 11 (6,13) [14 Runners]
The courses that have produced the most winners of the UAE Derby are Tokyo and Janadriyah, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 10 winners from a total of 106 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 13 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the UAE Derby, that stallion Dubawi has produced 2 winners (2021,2015).
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Plus Que Parfait in 2019, winning for Brendan P Walsh at odds of 25/1 under the guidance of Jose L Ortiz. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there have been 3 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2026 UAE Derby remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.
Races Covered at Dubai World Cup Night
Remember to head over to the Meydan predictions page to see which runner the racing tipsters are supporting in the UAE Derby and don't forget we also cover the following races at Dubai World Cup Night.
| Dubai World Cup Night Races | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| Al Quoz Sprint | Believing (IRE) 5yo - 3/1 | George Boughey William Buick |
| Dubai Gold Cup | Dubai Future (GB) 9yo - 17/2 | Saeed bin Suroor Silvestre De Sousa |
| Dubai Golden Shaheen | Dark Saffron (USA) 3yo - 40/1 | A bin Harmash Connor Beasley |
| Dubai Sheema Classic | Danon Decile (JPN) 4yo - 14/1 | Shogo Yasuda Keita Tosaki |
| Dubai Turf | Soul Rush (JPN) 7yo - 14/1 | Yasutoshi Ikee Cristian Demuro |
| Dubai World Cup | Hit Show (USA) 5yo - 66/1 | Brad H Cox Florent Geroux |
| Godolphin Mile | Raging Torrent (USA) 4yo - 3/1 | Doug O'Neill Frankie Dettori |
| UAE Derby | Admire Daytona (JPN) 3yo - 11/1 | Yukihiro Kato Christophe-Patrice Lemaire |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this UAE Derby Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
James Banting
Tipster Competition Assistant
Andy Powell
Content Editor
