Premier League Transfer True Values

Measuring the True Value of Transfers in the Premier League

For all the talk about transfers in the Premier League and the the record summer transfer fees paid in 2022, a lot of the conversation is connected to whether such expenditure is value for money. Not only that, but how exactly does a player prove his worth.

From a forward’s point of view, we always hear the phrase “paying off a slice of their transfer fee” when they score a goal and although that is a neat soundbite for commentators to spout, there is no absolute value to a goal being netted in the Premier League.

While that value could be measured in silverware and although Jack Grealish has certainly had his detractors since his £100m move from Aston Villa to Manchester City, he has already helped himself to a Premier League winners medal and repaid some of the money City manager Pep Guardiola chose to splash out

Although one could argue that such success is nothing more than residual value and if a player is not actually delivering in terms of goals or assists, then those same detractors will be ready to claim a certain player is a flop.

However, we are going to go some way to measuring value once and for all and to do this, we are going to take a sample of 25 players. A sample that is taken by the players that currently have the highest transfer values within the confines of the Fantasy Premier League.

From here, we are going to look at the transfer fee that was spent to help facilitate their recent move and then measure their goalscoring and goal making attributes since joining their current employers.

THE SAMPLE SQUAD

First up, we are going to reveal the 25 players that have made our Value FC and without further ado, here they are: 

As you can see, there are a number of big money moves in our list and with the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Darwin Nunez moving to Manchester City and Liverpool for more than £65m respectively, it will be interesting to see how much value they have clawed back since their move.

Not only that, but there are a number of small transfer fees and with both Jamie Vardy and Dominic Calvert-Lewin moving to Leicester and Everton for less than £1.5m each, you get the feeling their own accounts are well in credit.

Of course, there are a handful of statistical red herrings and with Harry Kane, Buakyo Saka and Phil Foden all requiring nothing in the way of transfer fees, we will also be able to measure the value of academy prospects come good. 

THE DATA ELEMENT

While the next step is to then add the data regarding goals and assists by each of the 25 players and to provide extra context, we have added the season in which of the players made the move to their current team.

As you can see, there are some incredibly impressive numbers in this list and when you consider that Harry Kane has scored 189 Premier League goals at the time of writing, he is certainly worth tens of millions of additional pounds to Tottenham.

However, all these numbers in terms of goals or assists are lacking something rather substantial and this a financial value being attached to them. Although we cannot truly say a goal is worth ‘x’, we can assume a value for the purpose of this experiment.

Therefore, we are going to say that a goal in the Premier League is worth £500,000 and in addition to this, an assist is worth £250,000. This means now we have values for both, we can multiply them to the two metrics. 

In doing this, we can see that Mohamed Salah’s 120 Premier League goals is worth £60m by our metric and his 13 assists have also paid back an additional £13m. While Harry Kane has made £94.5m pure profit when it comes to goals for Tottenham.

Then again, his Tottenham teammate is no slouch when it comes to transfer value and with Heung min-Son scoring £48m worth of transfer goals, it will be interesting to see how this compares against his previous fee.

One thing to consider is the players that have joined their new clubs over the course of the summer, and this means the likes of Gabriel Jesus, Richarlison and Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang should not be judged too harshly.

Of course, one player will likely blow this theory out of the water and with Erling Haaland doing his level best to break every Premier League scoring record in the first season, he has already raised £5.5m worth of transfer goals.

THE BIG REVEAL

Now that we know the transfer fees of each of our 25 players and their contribution in terms of attempting to pay it back, it is time to look at the true and winners and losers when it comes to pure transfer value. 

While the player who has offered the most in terms of transfer payment is Harry Kane. Although with no transfer fee, we may need to treat this victory as a rather moot one and therefore, his positive contribution of £106.5m is perhaps a little distorted.

Not to forget fellow academy products Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka and with Manchester City and Arsenal cultivating both talents for nothing in the way of transfer fees, they have generated £16.75m and £14m pure profit respectively.

This means if we exclude Kane from the conversation, the player with the biggest positive contribution when compared to their transfer fee, is none other than Jamie Vardy and with a total transfer repayment of £78.25m, it is £77.13m more than what Leicester paid for him. 

Third in our list is Mohamed Salah and with the Liverpool forward contributing £73m towards his transfer from Roma, it is a positive difference of £35.2m and with this, it just edges out Heung min-Son into fourth. 

Rounding out the top five is Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin and with a rather miniscule transfer outlay being handed to Sheffield United, he has managed to contribute £26.25m in terms of positive repayments to Everton.

If they are the success stories, then there has to be some players who are offering less in the way of value and although the difference values in red may be alarming at first, there can be some context applied. 

When looking at the bottom five names in the list, four of them have got a solid excuse and with them only arriving in the summer, they are never going to be capable of paying off such hefty fees so early.

However, the same cannot be said for Kai Havertz and with his switch from Bayer Leverkusen costing Chelsea £72m, he has done little to pay that back. With just 22 goal contributions at the time of writing, he has paid off just £8.75m in terms of transfer value.

While the same leniency can also be applied to the pair of Luis Diaz and Dejan Kulusevski and with the Liverpool and Tottenham forwards only joining in the second half of last season, there is still plenty of time to eat into their own current accounts. 

Therefore, it is likes of Riyad Mahrez and Bruno Fernandes who perhaps need some more scrutiny and although the former can also point to a litany of silverware in the form of leagues and cups, the Algerian still has a current deficit of £35.27m.

A figure that is not all that far away from Fernandes’ own shortfall and although the Portuguese midfielder had a bright start to his time at Manchester United, he is still some distance from breaking even with his transfer fee.

While finally the same could be said for Manchester United and Portugal counterpart and with Cristiano Ronaldo’s second move to Old Trafford costing the Red Devils £13.5m, he has only managed to pay back £9.75m when it comes to goal contributions.

Data correct as of September 30th