Your data guide to football betting, Dan Tracey shows you where the numbers point before the market catches up.
With another season of English league football now concluded, it is almost time to look ahead to the following campaign and although transfer talk has dominated these past few months, there are still plenty of opportunities to look back on what happened previously.
Because with all four professional divisions once again being keenly contested, the narrative of winners and losers has once again come to the fore and although some clubs will be popping the champagne corks, others will be dealing with the ignominy of relegation.
Crunching Numbers Post-Season: Unpacking Team Market Values for 2022/23
Now that the 2024/25 season is complete, it also provides us with another opportunity to take a data-driven deep dive and this time around we are going to look at the market values of teams up and down the country.
Which teams are topping their respective tables, who is punching above their weight and who are the outfits that have underperformed in relation to their overall values. These are the questions that we will soon look to answer.
This means a good a place to start as any is the Premier League and first, we will look at the top six if the table was ranked purely on market values alone:
| # | club | League | Club Value | Final Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | Premier League | £1,156,000,000 | 3 |
| 2 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | £1,011,500,000 | 4 |
| 3 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | £986,000,000 | 2 |
| 4 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | £808,307,500 | 1 |
| 5 | Manchester United | Premier League | £701,250,000 | 15 |
| 6 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | £660,705,000 | 17 |
To the surprise of very few, each of the members of the ‘big six’ group also finds themselves in the top half dozen when it comes to market values. However, they did not lock out each of the top six places in 2024/25 Premier League table.
Due to the market values of these six clubs, it would be fair to assume that they would have a monopoly on positions one to six – albeit in a shuffled order but as you can see this did not prove to be the case.
The top four may have at least seen the natural order jumbled around as Manchester City were knocked off their usual perch after finishing third in the league. However, that does not stop them having a marker value of £1.156bn.
The Etihad outfit are one of two teams who are now worth over £1bn - the other being Chelsea who finished fourth last season and are currently worth £1,011bn.
While Arsenal finished runners-up in the Premier League for the third season in a row and had to make do with a third place finish in this list as the Gunners are worth £986m when measuring the value of their club.
A value that offers a modicum of revenge when compared to Liverpool who although were champions in real life, had to make do with a fourth place finish. The Reds currently worth just over £800m.
Premier League Shocks: Market Value vs. Actual Performance Evaluation 2022/23
However, this is where the near match of big finishes to big values comes to an end and although Manchester United may be worth £701m, they had to make do with a 15th place finish last season.
A terrible campaign for all involved, worse still in Premier League terms if you are a Tottenham supporter. The North London club may have won the Europa League last season, they only finished 17th domestically.
Daniel Levy with mixed emotions as chairman of the club, the thought of his club being worth £660m will be rather pleasing all the same.
If we know that the ‘big six’ lock out each of the top half dozen berths in our market values league table, what does it mean for the three sides that will soon be plying their trade in the 2023/24 edition of the EFL Championship?
| # | club | League | Club Value | Final Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Southampton FC | Premier League | £263,542,500 | 20 |
| 19 | Ipswich Town | Premier League | £229,585,000 | 19 |
| 20 | Leicester City | Premier League | £215,347,500 | 18 |
Here we can see that value stands for very little. The three clubs that suffered the drop had reversed fortunes on the field when compared to their wealth.
Southampton finished rock bottom of last season's Premier League, but they were 18th in terms of value.
The Saints' £263m dwarfing that of Ipswich's £229m - a figure that managed to see them 19th in terms of league finish and club value.
While as for Leciester, they may have finished 18th in the Premier League but were actually the least valuable of all 20 Premier League teams in the 2024/25 season. The Foxes worth just £215m by comparison.
Extend the Trend
Tottenham Hotspur's Son Heung-Min // alamy
But what if we look at the Premier League class of 2022/23 as a whole. We have seen no real correlation between the big six and the clubs that were relegated, but is there more of a pattern when we look at teams in midtable?
| # | club | League | Club Value | Final Position | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | £660,705,000 | 17 | -11 |
| 5 | Manchester United | Premier League | £701,250,000 | 15 | -10 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | £368,092,500 | 16 | -3 |
| 1 | Manchester City | Premier League | £1,156,000,000 | 3 | -2 |
| 2 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | £1,011,500,000 | 4 | -2 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | £447,822,500 | 12 | -2 |
| 18 | Southampton FC | Premier League | £263,542,500 | 20 | -2 |
| 19 | Ipswich Town | Premier League | £229,585,000 | 19 | 0 |
| 3 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | £986,000,000 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | Premier League | £578,467,500 | 6 | 1 |
| 9 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | £567,443,000 | 8 | 1 |
| 15 | West Ham United | Premier League | £340,595,000 | 14 | 1 |
| 11 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | £440,810,000 | 9 | 2 |
| 20 | Leicester City | Premier League | £215,347,500 | 18 | 2 |
| 4 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | £808,307,500 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Newcastle United | Premier League | £575,900,500 | 5 | 3 |
| 16 | Everton FC | Premier League | £308,745,500 | 13 | 3 |
| 14 | Brentford FC | Premier League | £363,672,500 | 10 | 4 |
| 12 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | £409,105,000 | 7 | 5 |
| 17 | Fulham FC | Premier League | £307,997,500 | 11 | 6 |
Here we have ranked each of the 20 Premier League clubs in terms of the difference between the market value ranking and their final place in the standings, which means it does not make good reading for Tottenham, as they have the biggest disparity between finish and market value.
Then again, Manchester United do not fare much better. Spurs with a disparity of -11 places between the two metrics, the Red Devils at -10 by comparison.
While another team that was languishing in the lower reaches of midtable were Wolves. They may be the 13th most valuable club but they could only muster a 16th place finish last season.
Rating Premier League Clubs: Market Value vs. Final Standings - Surprises and Disparities
At the other end of the scale, Fulham certainly punched above their weight at Craven Cottage. Marco Silva's men finished 11th in the Premier League and have the 17th most valuable club - a positive difference of six places.
Fulham in the positive column along with 11 other Premier League outfits. Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton and West Ham all finding themselves a single comparitive position better off.
While the other success stories can be found at Nottingham Forest and Brentford. The former five places better off after a seventh place finish and 12th in terms of value. The latter finishing 10th and only being 14th in the market charts.
Market Value Mirroring League Position: The Unique Case of Four Clubs - Manchester City, Arsenal, Wolves, Nottingham Forest
Across The Board
Of course, the Premier League is not the only professional division within English football and now it is time to see what stories can be gleaned from looking across the board and weighing up the values of each of the 92.
Let’s start in the Championship and it is good news for Burnley both on and off the pitch, as promotion to the Premier League was coupled with the highest market value. The Clarets worth £249m as they finished second in the division under manager Scott Parket.
£40m more than that of eventual league champions Leeds and with the Elland Road outfit worth £209m, these two clubs are the only 2024/25 second tier outfits that broke the £200m barrier.
Third in the list and joining the other two in reaching the promised land of the Premier League is Sunderland, the Black Cats may have finished fourth but their luck was in during the playoffs.
Promotion to the top tier and the club is currently worth £177m - a figure that is certain to increase in the next 12 months.
| # | club | League | Club Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burnley FC | Championship | £249,203,000 |
| 2 | Leeds United | Championship | £209,992,500 |
| 3 | Sunderland AFC | Championship | £177,548,000 |
| 4 | Sheffield United | Championship | £150,195,000 |
| 5 | Norwich City | Championship | £128,350,000 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough FC | Championship | £124,720,500 |
The remainder of the top six is made up of clubs who failed in their own bids for promotion and will have to try again in the 2025/26 edition of the Championship.
Sheffield United finished third in the table and recorded fourth in terms of market value. Their £150m value is worth £22m more than Norwich in fifth and £26m more than Middlesbrough in sixth.
Bottom of the Second Tier
Carlton Morris of Derby County // Credit: Mitch Davidson/Alamy
| # | club | League | Club Value | Final Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Derby County | Championship | £30,600,000 | 19 |
| 23 | Portsmouth FC | Championship | £25,015,500 | 16 |
| 24 | Oxford United | Championship | £24,165,500 | 17 |
As for the bottom of the Championship, none of the actual relegated teams to League One found themselves in the bottom three.
Derby Country were third bottom in terms of club value. A total worth of £30m sees them £5m clear of Portsmouth and £6m clear of Oxford who also avoided relegation by finishing 16th and 17th respectively.
League One & Two
Chris Davies, manager of Birmingham City applauds his teams supporters // MI News & Sport/Alamy
| # | club | League | Club Value | Final Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham City | League One | £50,745,000 | 1 |
| 2 | Huddersfield Town | League One | £17,705,500 | 10 |
| 3 | Wigan Athletic | League One | £16,728,000 | 15 |
| 4 | Barnsley FC | League One | £15,470,000 | 12 |
| 5 | Wrexham AFC | League One | £14,475,500 | 2 |
| 6 | Stockport County | League One | £13,838,000 | 3 |
When it comes to League One, three of the top six also found themselves in the top half dozen when it comes to market value.
League winners Birmingham ended up doing the double as the West Midlands outfit is worth £50m, three times as much as the second most valuable team Huddersfield.
The Terriers could only finish 10th in the table but this is still five places better off than Wigan and two places better off than Barnsley who found themselves third and fourth in the League One value list.
While the biggest story of the division is undoubtedly Wrexham and their meteoric rise up through the divisions. The North Wales outfit secured second on the league ladder and are the fifth most valuable club in League One.
The Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac owned clubs are worth £14.4m - £600k more than third place Stockport in sixth.
As for League Two, this arguably offers the most interesting story of all, and it is a story that is steeped in a large amount of displacement.
| # | club | League | Club Value | Final Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milton Keynes Dons | League Two | £5,865,000 | 19 |
| 2 | Port Vale FC | League Two | £5,780,000 | 2 |
| 3 | Notts County | League Two | £5,763,000 | 6 |
| 4 | Bradford City | League Two | £5,508,000 | 3 |
| 5 | Carlisle United | League Two | £4,930,000 | 23 |
| 6 | Crewe Alexandra | League Two | £4,828,000 | 13 |
| 7 | Doncaster Rovers | League Two | £4,632,500 | 1 |
You have to go all the way down to seventh to find the champions of League Two, as Doncaster would get their hands on the silverware at the end of the season. While Port Vale found parity after finishing second as the second most valuable club.
The most valuable club in the division MK Dons could only a muster a 19th place finish - 18 places worse off than their actual value within the league.
Of course, four clubs are promoted to League One at the end of each season and although Notts County found themselves positioned third in the value table, they could only convert that into a sixth place finish on the field and ultimately playoff disappointment.
Underdogs and Unexpected Results: An Analysis of Market Value vs Performance in League Two
Then again the disparity was even worse at Brunton Park and although Carlisle United may have been the fifth most valuable club in the division, it was not enough to save their EFL status.
The Cumbrian outfit finished second bottom last season, their £4.93m value not high enough to save them and a positional disparity of 18 places.
Although it should be noted that the gap between the giants and the minnows in the division is far smaller than the three leagues above and this will go a long way to explaining the lack of correlation between market values and final positions.
Over and Under Achievers
Jaidon Anthony of Burnley FC celebrates his goal / Burnley and Millwall at Turf Moor 2025 // MI News & Sport /Alamy Live News
To conclude our findings, we are going to highlight the teams that truly are over or underachieving when it comes to the comparison of market values and their performances on the pitch.
| # | club | League | Ranked League | Club Value | Final Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Burnley FC | Championship | Premier League | £249,203,000 | 2 |
| 21 | Leicester City | Premier League | Championship | £215,347,500 | 18 |
| 35 | Birmingham City | League One | Championship | £50,745,000 | 1 |
| 45 | Oxford United | Championship | League One | £24,165,500 | 17 |
| 66 | Milton Keynes Dons | League Two | League One | £5,865,000 | 19 |
| 67 | Port Vale FC | League Two | League One | £5,780,000 | 2 |
| 71 | Shrewsbury Town | League One | League Two | £5,040,500 | 24 |
| 74 | Stevenage FC | League One | League Two | £4,632,500 | 14 |
The first thing you will notice is that Leicester find themselves outside of the top 20 in this list, meaning they are not Premier League in terms of overall value.
The Foxes may be worth £215m, but Burnley's figure of £249m takes them out of the value Championship and into the top tier.
While there is one Championship outfit that should have been playing in League One on market values alone. Oxford United only finished 45th in terms of overall value and this due to Birmingham being worth twice as much while sitting in League One.
However, the picture is slightly more jumbled when looking at at both League One and Two. Milton Keynes Dons and Port Value should be operating a a higher level, Shrewsbury and Stevenage should be operating at the fourth tier.
Editorial information
This article was researched and fact-checked by Dan Tracey who also then added the words - Dan is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites, including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal
Data courtesy of https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/
All data correct as of 1st August 2023
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