Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2026 Manifesto Novices Chase Preview
Scheduled to take place in April of each year at the Aintree racecourse is the Manifesto Novices Chase, the Grade 1 chase which is open to novices only, meaning those who came into the season without a win over fences are eligible and it is run during the Grand National meeting.
The race is open to runners aged five or older and is run over two miles and four furlongs where these novices will face sixteen fences.
Manifesto Novices Chase Information:
- Manifesto Novices Chase Past Winners
- Manifesto Novices Chase Trainer Statistics
- Manifesto Novices Chase Jockey Statistics
If you are interested in other predictions at Aintree then head over to the Aintree tips page to see which runners are being supported by the OLBG racing tipsters and also compare those predictions to the runners that make the trend shortlist when added below. We cover every race at the Aintree Grand National Meeting and below you can find links to all of the races for each of Thursday, Friday & Saturday.
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How competitive is the Manifesto Novices Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 16 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2024 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2025 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 114%, whilst on average over the last 16 renewals of the Manifesto Novices Chase, the over-round has been 111%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £111 which is bet.
Below you will find the 2026 Manifesto Novices Chase Trends, see which patterns have occurred over the recent renewals that you may be able to use for the next renewal, we also have a section that looks at the Manifesto Novices Chase Trend Analysis.
These are the top three quickest-run Manifesto Novices Chase over the last 16 renewals:
- Clarcam (4:58.40) in 2015
- Impaire Et Passe (4:58.58) in 2025
- Banbridge (4:59.24) in 2023
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 16 if you had followed the winner of the Manifesto Novices Chase next time out then you would have backed a total of 3 winners. Backing all 14 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -1.75. Whilst we wait for the 2026 Manifesto Novices Chase remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
When looking over the past 16 renewals, a time of 4:58.40 was set by Clarcam in 2015, which is the quickest time over that period, the runner was trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by R Walsh. The slowest winning time was set in 2018 when Finians Oscar won in a time of 5:16.00, booked to ride was Robbie Power by the trainer Colin Tizzard.
What the expert says...
Andy Powell - Horse Racing Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Manifesto Novices Chase Past Winners
Here are the Manifesto Novices Chase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The horse's trainer and the jockey at the time of winning the Manifesto Novices Chase are also displayed, along with the starting price at which the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 4:58.58 | Impaire Et Passe (FR) 7yo 11-7 9/4 | Paul Townend W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2024 5:13.47 | Il Etait Temps (FR) 6yo 11-7 3/1 | Paul Townend W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2023 4:59.24 | Banbridge (IRE) 7yo 11-7 2/1 | J J Slevin Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2022 5:09.61 | Millers Bank (GB) 8yo 11-4 7/1 | Kielan Woods Alex Hales (GB) |
| 2021 5:05.60 | Protektorat (FR) 6yo 11-4 17/2 | Harry Skelton Dan Skelton (GB) |
| 2019 5:05.90 | Kalashnikov (IRE) 6yo 11-4 4/1 | Jack Quinlan Amy Murphy (GB) |
| 2018 5:16.00 | Finians Oscar (IRE) 6yo 11-4 5/2 | Robbie Power Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2017 5:01.60 | Flying Angel (IRE) 6yo 11-4 5/1 | Noel Fehily Nigel Twiston-Davies (GB) |
| 2016 5:08.20 | Arzal (FR) 6yo 11-4 4/1 | Gavin Sheehan Harry Whittington (GB) |
| 2015 4:58.40 | Clarcam (FR) 5yo 11-4 5/1 | R Walsh Gordon Elliott (IRE) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Manifesto Novices Chase have been based:
- GB: 12 winners with an additional 16 placings from 84 runners
- IRE: 4 winners with an additional 3 placings from 17 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Manifesto Novices Chase Trainer Statistics
There are multiple leading trainers in the Manifesto Novices Chase over the last 16 renewals with Nicky Henderson, Philip Hobbs and W P Mullins having all won the race two times. Nicky Henderson winners have been with Mad Max (2010) and Captain Conan (2013). Philip Hobbs winners have been with Wishfull Thinking (2011) and Menorah (2012). W P Mullins winners have been with Il Etait Temps (2024) and Impaire Et Passe (2025). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Manifesto Novices Chase, Paul Nicholls has sent a total of 17 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Manifesto Novices Chase trainer statistics over the last 16 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Henderson | 10-2-5 | -2.80 | -2.43 |
| Philip Hobbs | 4-2-3 | +3.25 | +2.12 |
| W P Mullins | 3-2-3 | +4.25 | +3.10 |
| Dan Skelton | 5-1-2 | +4.50 | +2.81 |
| Gordon Elliott | 5-1-1 | +1.00 | -0.87 |
| Tom George | 3-1-1 | +3.50 | +1.30 |
| Alan King | 3-1-2 | +0.75 | +0.45 |
| Nigel Twiston-Davies | 2-1-1 | +4.00 | +2.13 |
| Alex Hales | 1-1-1 | +7.00 | +4.38 |
| Amy Murphy | 1-1-1 | +4.00 | +2.50 |
Manifesto Novices Chase Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Manifesto Novices Chase over the last 16 renewals is Paul Townend who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Il Etait Temps (2024) and Impaire Et Passe (2025).
Here are some of the top Manifesto Novices Chase jockey statistics over the last 16 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Townend | 2-2-2 | +5.25 | +3.23 |
| Harry Skelton | 5-1-2 | +4.50 | +2.81 |
| Gavin Sheehan | 2-1-1 | +3.00 | +1.40 |
| Kielan Woods | 1-1-1 | +7.00 | +4.38 |
| Jack Quinlan | 1-1-1 | +4.00 | +2.50 |
| J J Slevin | 1-1-1 | +2.00 | +1.25 |
| Harry Cobden | 5-0-1 | -5.00 | -4.00 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies | 5-0-1 | -5.00 | -4.22 |
| Nico de Boinville | 4-0-1 | -4.00 | -3.35 |
| Brendan Powell | 2-0-1 | -2.00 | -0.94 |
2026 Manifesto Novices Chase Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): F, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 4, 3, 3, 4, 2, PU, 4, 5, 3, 3
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 16 / 16 (58%) - Break of 53 - 158 days (Last Win)
- 16 / 16 (62%) - Ran in 8 - 17 races (Career)
- 16 / 16 (66%) - No bigger than 17/2
- 16 / 16 (67%) - Held an OR of 144+ (LTO)
- 16 / 16 (68%) - Achieved an RPR of 150+ (Non-Hcps)
- 16 / 16 (71%) - Not in a G3/LST/Cl2/Cl4 (LTO)
- 16 / 16 (71%) - Ran in 8 - 16 races (Non-Hcps)
- 16 / 16 (75%) - Highest Placed is not G3/LST/Cl2-4
- 16 / 16 (75%) - Had 5 - 11 placings (Career)
- 16 / 16 (77%) - Not in a Handicap (LTO)
- 16 / 16 (79%) - Within the first 5 of the market
- 16 / 16 (81%) - Not in a LST/Cl4-5 (Last Win)
- 16 / 16 (82%) - Had 4 - 11 placings (Non-Hcps)
- 16 / 16 (85%) - Had 1 - 3 wins (Season)
- 16 / 16 (88%) - Achieved a TS of 68+ (Last Win)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Aintree racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Manifesto Novices Chase. Did you know that we have an OLBG Betting School section on OLBG? It is a place to help you improve your betting experience with articles covering numerous topics.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Manifesto Novices Chase by adding a tip on the race here.
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Manifesto Novices Chase Trend Analysis
✅ The trend factor which had produced 8+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +12.75 is when runners were 2nd in the betting market.
❌ The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when the runner's last win was 1 start ago, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-30.
The course which has produced the most winners of the Manifesto Novices Chase is Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 11 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 16 winners from a total of 96 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 6 runners.
Looking at the winning odds over the last 16 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Protektorat in 2021, winning for Dan Skelton at odds of 17/2 under the guidance of Harry Skelton. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 16 renewals there have been 1 winning favourites in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2026 Manifesto Novices Chase remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.
Route to the Manifesto Novices Chase
Many trainers will target races to use as prep races before coming to the Manifesto Novices Chase, these are the races which the recent winners ran in before coming here:
| Info | Last Race |
|---|---|
| 2025 - Impaire Et Passe Leopardstown - 3rd of 6 (11/4) | Ladbrokes Novice Chase |
| 2024 - Il Etait Temps Cheltenham - 3rd of 10 (7/2) | Arkle Challenge Trophy |
| 2023 - Banbridge Leopardstown - 2nd of 8 (8/1) | Irish Arkle Novice Chase |
| 2022 - Millers Bank Kempton - 2nd of 5 (5/2) | Coral Pendil Novices Chase |
| 2021 - Protektorat Kelso - 2nd of 3 (1/2) | Cheltenham Gold At timeform.com Novices Chase |
| 2019 - Kalashnikov Cheltenham - UR of 12 (6/1) | Arkle Challenge Trophy |
| 2018 - Finians Oscar Cheltenham - 5th of 9 (11/2) | Golden Miller (Discontinued) |
| 2017 - Flying Angel Cheltenham - 6th of 8 (9/1) | Golden Miller (Discontinued) |
| 2016 - Arzal Doncaster - 2nd of 5 (11/2) | grand-national2016.co.uk Lightning Novices Chase |
| 2015 - Clarcam Cheltenham - 8th of 11 (16/1) | Arkle Challenge Trophy |
Schedule for Thursday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
The three-day Grand National meeting kicks off on Thursday with four Grade 1 events on the seven-race card which features both the Aintree Hurdle and the Bowl Chase.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:45 Aintree Manifesto Novices Chase | Impaire Et Passe (FR) 7yo - 9/4 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 14:20 Aintree Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle | Murcia (FR) 4yo - 11/4 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 14:55 Aintree Bowl Chase | Gaelic Warrior (GER) 7yo - 11/4 | W P Mullins Mr P W Mullins |
| 15:30 Aintree Aintree Hurdle | Lossiemouth (FR) 6yo - 5/4 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 16:05 Aintree Foxhunters Chase | Gracchus De Balme (FR) 9yo - 22/1 | J J O'Shea Mr Huw Edwards |
| 16:40 Aintree Red Rum Handicap Chase | Sans Bruit (FR) 7yo - 5/1 | Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden |
| 17:15 Aintree Nickel Coin Mares Bumper | Seo Linn (IRE) 5yo - 15/8 | P Twomey W J Lee |
Schedule for Friday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
Day 2 of the Grand National meeting is Ladies Day or Fabulous Friday, the highlights on the track being the Melling Chase plus there is the Topham Chase over the Grand National fences.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:45 Aintree Mildmay Novices Chase | Caldwell Potter (FR) 7yo - 11/4 | Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden |
| 14:20 Aintree National Meeting 2m4f Handicap Hurdle | Wellington Arch (GB) 6yo - 14/1 | Jonjo & A J O'Neill Jonjo O'Neill Jr |
| 14:55 Aintree Top Novices Hurdle | Salvator Mundi (FR) 5yo - 7/2 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 15:30 Aintree Melling Chase | Jonbon (FR) 9yo - 4/6 | Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville |
| 16:05 Aintree Topham Chase | Gentleman De Mee (FR) 9yo - 14/1 | W P Mullins Mark Walsh |
| 16:40 Aintree Sefton Novices Hurdle | Julius Des Pictons (FR) 6yo - 14/1 | Jamie Snowden Gavin Sheehan |
| 17:15 Aintree National Meeting 2m Handicap Hurdle | Shes A Saint (IRE) 8yo - 25/1 | Dan Skelton Tristan Durrell |
Schedule for Saturday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
The Grand National is obviously the showpiece of the Aintree meeting and day 3 also includes three Grade 1 events, the feature of those being the Liverpool Hurdle.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:20 Aintree National Meeting 3m Handicap Hurdle | Deep Cave (IRE) 7yo - 28/1 | Christian Williams Jack Tudor |
| 13:55 Aintree Mersey Novices Hurdle | Honesty Policy (IRE) 5yo - 5/1 | Gordon Elliott Mark Walsh |
| 14:30 Aintree Freebooter Handicap Chase | Cruz Control (FR) 8yo - 10/1 | Tom Lacey Stan Sheppard |
| 15:05 Aintree Liverpool Hurdle | Hiddenvalley Lake (IRE) 8yo - 12/1 | Henry De Bromhead Darragh O'Keeffe |
| 16:00 Aintree Grand National | Nick Rockett (IRE) 8yo - 33/1 | W P Mullins Mr P W Mullins |
| 17:00 Aintree Maghull Novices Chase | Kalif Du Berlais (FR) 5yo - 15/8 | Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden |
| 17:35 Aintree Champion Standard Open NH Flat Race | Green Splendour (GB) 5yo - 100/30 | W P Mullins Mr P W Mullins |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Manifesto Novices Chase Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
Darren Brett
Tipster Competition Manager
Andy Powell
Content Editor
