Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2025 Manifesto Novices Chase Preview
Scheduled to take place in April of each year at the Aintree racecourse is the Manifesto Novices Chase, the Grade 1 chase which is open to novices only, meaning those who came into the season without a win over fences are eligible and it is run during the Grand National meeting.
The race is open to runners aged five or older and is run over two miles and four furlongs where these novices will face sixteen fences.
Manifesto Novices Chase Information:
- Manifesto Novices Chase Past Winners
- Manifesto Novices Chase Trainer Statistics
- Manifesto Novices Chase Jockey Statistics
If you are looking at Aintree picks then you may be interested in the Grand National tips as this is the course showpiece race of the season, forty runners over the national fences is a favourite among racing fans. We cover every race at the Aintree Grand National Meeting and below you can find links to all of the races for each of Thursday, Friday & Saturday.
How competitive is the Manifesto Novices Chase market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 15 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2024 when the race had an over-round of 108%. The race in 2009 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 113%, whilst on average over the last 15 renewals of the Manifesto Novices Chase, the over-round has been 111%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £111 which is bet.
Manifesto Novices Chase Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 15 if you had followed the winner of the Manifesto Novices Chase next time out then you would have backed a total of 2 winners. Backing all 13 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -5.25. Remember to use the racing predictions along with the information on this page to find a bet on the 2025 Manifesto Novices Chase.
The runner that holds the record over the past 15 renewals for the slowest time in the race was set in the 2018 renewal when Finians Oscar from Colin Tizzard under the guidance of Robbie Power, won in a time of 5:16.00, whilst at the other end of the spectrum, Clarcam, trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by R Walsh set the quickest time of 4:58.40 in the 2015 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Manifesto Novices Chase over the last 15 renewals:
- Clarcam (4:58.40) in 2015
- Banbridge (4:59.24) in 2023
- Uxizandre (4:59.40) in 2014
What the expert says...
Between 2009 and 2019 every winner of this race except for Arzal (2016) came having run at the Cheltenham Festival last time out, five of those ran in the Arkle and five in the Golden Miller, however, only one of the last four came from the Festival, Il Etait Temps in 2024 who finished third in the Arkle.Manifesto Novices Chase Past Winners
Here are the Manifesto Novices Chase past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Manifesto Novices Chase as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 5:13.47 | Il Etait Temps (FR) 6yo 11-7 3/1 | Paul Townend W P Mullins (IRE) |
| 2023 4:59.24 | Banbridge (IRE) 7yo 11-7 2/1 | J J Slevin Joseph Patrick O'Brien (IRE) |
| 2022 5:09.61 | Millers Bank (GB) 8yo 11-4 7/1 | Kielan Woods Alex Hales (GB) |
| 2021 5:05.60 | Protektorat (FR) 6yo 11-4 17/2 | Harry Skelton Dan Skelton (GB) |
| 2019 5:05.90 | Kalashnikov (IRE) 6yo 11-4 4/1 | Jack Quinlan Amy Murphy (GB) |
| 2018 5:16.00 | Finians Oscar (IRE) 6yo 11-4 5/2 | Robbie Power Colin Tizzard (GB) |
| 2017 5:01.60 | Flying Angel (IRE) 6yo 11-4 5/1 | Noel Fehily Nigel Twiston-Davies (GB) |
| 2016 5:08.20 | Arzal (FR) 6yo 11-4 4/1 | Gavin Sheehan Harry Whittington (GB) |
| 2015 4:58.40 | Clarcam (FR) 5yo 11-4 5/1 | R Walsh Gordon Elliott (IRE) |
| 2014 4:59.40 | Uxizandre (FR) 6yo 11-4 11/4 | A P McCoy Alan King (GB) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Manifesto Novices Chase have been based:
- GB: 12 winners with an additional 14 placings from 78 runners
- IRE: 3 winners with an additional 3 placings from 14 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Manifesto Novices Chase Trainer Statistics
There are two leading trainers in the Manifesto Novices Chase over the last 15 renewals with both Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs who have both won the race two times. Nicky Henderson winners have been with Mad Max (2010) and Captain Conan (2013). Philip Hobbs winners have been with Wishfull Thinking (2011) and Menorah (2012). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Manifesto Novices Chase, Paul Nicholls has sent a total of 16 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are some of the top Manifesto Novices Chase trainer statistics over the last 15 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Henderson | 9-2-4 | -1.80 | -2.08 |
| Philip Hobbs | 4-2-3 | +3.25 | +2.12 |
| Dan Skelton | 4-1-2 | +5.50 | +3.81 |
| Gordon Elliott | 4-1-1 | +2.00 | +0.13 |
| Tom George | 3-1-1 | +3.50 | +1.30 |
| Alan King | 3-1-2 | +0.75 | +0.45 |
| Nigel Twiston-Davies | 2-1-1 | +4.00 | +2.13 |
| W P Mullins | 2-1-2 | +2.00 | +1.75 |
| Alex Hales | 1-1-1 | +7.00 | +4.38 |
| Amy Murphy | 1-1-1 | +4.00 | +2.50 |
Manifesto Novices Chase Jockey Statistics
Here are some of the top Manifesto Novices Chase jockey statistics over the last 15 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Skelton | 4-1-2 | +5.50 | +3.81 |
| Paddy Brennan | 2-1-1 | +4.50 | +2.30 |
| Gavin Sheehan | 2-1-1 | +3.00 | +1.40 |
| Kielan Woods | 1-1-1 | +7.00 | +4.38 |
| Jack Quinlan | 1-1-1 | +4.00 | +2.50 |
| Paul Townend | 1-1-1 | +3.00 | +1.88 |
| J J Slevin | 1-1-1 | +2.00 | +1.25 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies | 5-0-1 | -5.00 | -4.22 |
| Daryl Jacob | 4-0-2 | -4.00 | -1.67 |
| Harry Cobden | 4-0-1 | -4.00 | -3.00 |
2025 Manifesto Novices Chase Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): F, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 4, 3, 3, 4, 2, PU, 4, 5, 3
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.
- 15 / 15 (58%) - Break of 53 - 158 days (Last Win)
- 15 / 15 (63%) - Made 8 - 17 starts (Career)
- 15 / 15 (68%) - No bigger than 17/2
- 15 / 15 (70%) - Not in a G3/LST/Cl2/Cl4 (LTO)
- 15 / 15 (70%) - Achieved an RPR of 150+ (Non-Hcps)
- 15 / 15 (70%) - Held an OR of 144+ (LTO)
- 15 / 15 (71%) - Held an OR of 147+
- 15 / 15 (72%) - Made 8 - 16 starts (Non-Hcps)
- 15 / 15 (77%) - Had 5 - 11 placings (Career)
- 15 / 15 (77%) - Achieved a TS of 117+ (Last 3)
- 15 / 15 (78%) - Not in a Handicap (LTO)
- 15 / 15 (78%) - Achieved a TS of 98+ (Last Win)
- 15 / 15 (81%) - Not in a LST/Cl4-5 (Last Win)
- 15 / 15 (82%) - Within the first 5 of the market
- 15 / 15 (85%) - Ran over 1m4f - 2m5½f (Debut)
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Aintree racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Manifesto Novices Chase. If you are a newcomer to horse racing betting, then the number of types of bets can be scary! Don't let that put you off though, head over to this Types Of Horse Racing Bet article and have a read, you will then have a better knowledge of betting on racing in the future and there are plenty of other articles in the OLBG Betting School too.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Manifesto Novices Chase by adding a tip on the race here.
Manifesto Novices Chase Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 8+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +13.45 is when runners were aged 6yo. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners finished in 1st last time out, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-25.
The course which has produced the most winners of the Manifesto Novices Chase is Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 11 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 15 winners from a total of 87 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 6 runners.
Looking at the winning odds over the last 15 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Protektorat in 2021, winning for Dan Skelton at odds of 17/2 under the guidance of Harry Skelton. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 15 renewals there has been 1 winning favourite in the race. Whilst we wait for the 2025 Manifesto Novices Chase remember you can get daily racing predictions from the top racing tipsters on the best racing tipsters page.
Schedule for Thursday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
The three-day Grand National meeting kicks off on Thursday with four Grade 1 events on the seven-race card which features both the Aintree Hurdle and the Bowl Chase.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:45 Aintree Manifesto Novices Chase | Il Etait Temps (FR) 6yo - 3/1 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 14:20 Aintree Anniversary 4YO Juvenile Hurdle | Sir Gino (FR) 4yo - 11/10 | Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville |
| 14:55 Aintree Bowl Chase | Gerri Colombe (FR) 8yo - 9/4 | Gordon Elliott Jack Kennedy |
| 15:30 Aintree Aintree Hurdle | Impaire Et Passe (FR) 6yo - 1/1 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 16:05 Aintree Foxhunters Chase | Its On The Line (IRE) 7yo - 3/1 | Emmet Mullins Mr Derek O'Connor |
| 16:40 Aintree Red Rum Handicap Chase | Sans Bruit (FR) 6yo - 5/1 | Paul Nicholls Bryony Frost |
| 17:15 Aintree Nickel Coin Mares Bumper | Diva Luna (IRE) 5yo - 13/2 | Ben Pauling Kielan Woods |
Schedule for Friday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
Day 2 of the Grand National meeting is Ladies Day or Fabulous Friday, the highlights on the track being the Melling Chase plus there is the Topham Chase over the Grand National fences.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:45 Aintree Mildmay Novices Chase | Inothewayurthinkin (IRE) 6yo - 6/4 | Gavin Cromwell Mark Walsh |
| 14:20 Aintree William Hill National Festival Handicap Hurdle | Kateira (GB) 7yo - 5/1 | Dan Skelton Harry Skelton |
| 14:55 Aintree Top Novices Hurdle | Mystical Power (IRE) 5yo - 11/10 | W P Mullins Mark Walsh |
| 15:30 Aintree Melling Chase | Jonbon (FR) 8yo - 11/10 | Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville |
| 16:05 Aintree Topham Chase | Arizona Cardinal (GB) 8yo - 20/1 | Stuart Edmunds Ciaran Gethings |
| 16:40 Aintree Sefton Novices Hurdle | Dancing City (FR) 7yo - 4/1 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 17:15 Aintree Alder Hey Handicap Hurdle | El Jefe (IRE) 7yo - 40/1 | Andrew Hamilton Ben Smith |
Schedule for Saturday at the Aintree Grand National Meeting
The Grand National is obviously the showpiece of the Aintree meeting and day 3 also includes three Grade 1 events, the feature of those being the Liverpool Hurdle.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:20 Aintree Bridle Road Handicap Hurdle | Gwennie May Boy (IRE) 6yo - 9/2 | Dan Skelton Charlie Todd |
| 13:55 Aintree Mersey Novices Hurdle | Brighterdaysahead (FR) 5yo - 6/5 | Gordon Elliott Jack Kennedy |
| 14:30 Aintree William Hill National Festival Handicap Chase | Cruz Control (FR) 7yo - 9/1 | Tom Lacey Stan Sheppard |
| 15:05 Aintree Liverpool Hurdle | Strong Leader (GB) 7yo - 8/1 | Olly Murphy Sean Bowen |
| 16:00 Aintree Grand National | I Am Maximus (FR) 8yo - 7/1 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 17:00 Aintree Maghull Novices Chase | Found A Fifty (IRE) 7yo - 11/8 | Gordon Elliott Jack Kennedy |
| 17:35 Aintree Champion Standard Open NH Flat Race | Horaces Pearl (FR) 6yo - 14/1 | Fergal O'Brien Connor Brace |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Manifesto Novices Chase Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
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