Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2024 Kentucky Derby Preview
The Kentucky Derby is a Group 1 race which is run at Churchill Down Racecourse in May of each year and run the day after the Kentucky Oaks, it is open to three-year-old runners only and the race is run over a trip of one mile and two furlongs.
The race in the US is known as "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports" and was first run in 1875 with the race being the first leg of the American Triple Crown which is followed by the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
Kentucky Derby Information:
To see which runners the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping throughout the card that includes this race, head over to the Churchill Downs tips on the day of the race, do they agree with the runners on the trend shortlist or are they predicting other runners? You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Churchill Downs Racecourse section for links to these.
How competitive is the Kentucky Derby market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2023 when the race had an over-round of 122%. The race in 2020 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 124%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Kentucky Derby, the over-round has been 122%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £122 which is bet.
Kentucky Derby Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the Kentucky Derby next time out then you would have backed a total of 4 winners. Backing all 9 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -2.90. Whilst we wait for the 2024 Kentucky Derby remember you can get daily racing predictions from the expert tipsters on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 10 renewals, it was Authentic, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by John R Velazquez who set the fastest winning time in the Kentucky Derby, the runner won the race in a time of 2:00.61 when winning the race in 2020. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike E Smith with Justify who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 2:04.20 in the 2018 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Kentucky Derby over the last 10 renewals:
- Authentic (2:00.61) in 2020
- Mandaloun (2:01.02) in 2021
- Nyquist (2:01.31) in 2016
Kentucky Derby Past Winners
Here are the Kentucky Derby past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Kentucky Derby as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
Race Notes: Medina Spirit won the 2021 but was later disqualified after testing positive for a banned substance.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 2:01.57 | Mage (USA) 3yo 9-0 (8 of 18) 152/10 | Javier Castellano Gustavo Delgado (USA) |
| 2022 2:02.61 | Rich Strike (USA) 3yo 9-0 (20 of 20) 81/1 | Sonny Leon Eric R Reed (USA) |
| 2021 2:01.02 | Mandaloun (USA) 3yo 9-0 (7 of 19) 269/10 | Florent Geroux Brad H Cox (USA) |
| 2020 2:00.61 | Authentic (USA) 3yo 9-0 (15 of 15) 84/10 | John R Velazquez Bob Baffert (USA) |
| 2019 2:03.93 | Country House (USA) 3yo 9-0 (19 of 19) 65/1 | Flavien Prat William Mott (USA) |
| 2018 2:04.20 | Justify (USA) 3yo 9-0 (7 of 20) 29/10F | Mike E Smith Bob Baffert (USA) |
| 2017 2:03.59 | Always Dreaming (USA) 3yo 9-0 (5 of 20) 47/10F | John R Velazquez Todd Pletcher (USA) |
| 2016 2:01.31 | Nyquist (USA) 3yo 9-0 (13 of 20) 23/10F | Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill (USA) |
| 2015 2:03.02 | American Pharoah (USA) 3yo 9-0 (15 of 18) 29/10F | Victor Espinoza Bob Baffert (USA) |
| 2014 2:03.66 | California Chrome (USA) 3yo 9-0 (6 of 19) 5/2F | Victor Espinoza Art Sherman (USA) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Kentucky Derby have been based:
- USA: 10 winners with an additional 20 placings from 170 runners
- CAN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 9 runners
- JPN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 5 runners
- GB: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- SAF: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- UAE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Kentucky Derby Trainer Statistics
There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Kentucky Derby, Steven Asmussen has sent a total of 13 runners to the race without recording any wins.
Here are the Kentucky Derby trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals for trainers who have entries in the 2024 renewal, those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Pletcher | 28-1-3 | -22.30 | -23.65 |
| Brad H Cox | 9-1-3 | +18.90 | +6.45 |
| William Mott | 5-1-2 | +61.00 | +29.00 |
| Steven Asmussen | 13-0-3 | -13.00 | -11.50 |
| Chad C Brown | 6-0-2 | -6.00 | -5.00 |
| Kenneth McPeek | 3-0-0 | -3.00 | -3.00 |
| D Wayne Lukas | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Saffie A Joseph Jr | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Danny Gargan | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
Kentucky Derby Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Kentucky Derby over the last 10 renewals is John R Velazquez who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Always Dreaming (2017) and Authentic (2020).
Here are the Kentucky Derby jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals for jockeys who have entries in the 2024 renewal, those not listed have not had a runner. (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| John R Velazquez | 10-2-3 | +5.10 | -0.11 |
| Florent Geroux | 7-1-2 | +20.90 | +7.95 |
| Flavien Prat | 6-1-5 | +60.00 | +29.50 |
| Luis Saez | 9-0-1 | -9.00 | -8.50 |
| Jose L Ortiz | 8-0-2 | -8.00 | -7.00 |
| Joel Rosario | 8-0-1 | -8.00 | -7.50 |
| Irad Ortiz Jr | 7-0-0 | -7.00 | -7.00 |
| Tyler Gaffalione | 6-0-0 | -6.00 | -6.00 |
| Junior Alvarado | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr | 4-0-0 | -4.00 | -4.00 |
| Joseph Talamo | 2-0-0 | -2.00 | -2.00 |
| Adam Beschizza | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Emisael Jaramillo | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Umberto Rispoli | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| Kazushi Kimura | 1-0-0 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
2024 Kentucky Derby Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 3, 2, 3
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.
- 10 / 10 (73%) - Furthest Placed 1m1f - 1m1f
- 10 / 10 (75%) - In a field of 5 - 10 (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (78%) - Ran over 4½f - 1m (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (83%) - Had 2 - 4 placings (Season)
- 10 / 10 (84%) - In a field of 7 - 12 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (87%) - Carried 118 - 122lbs (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (87%) - Not BR/RG in colour
- 10 / 10 (87%) - Not on SFT/GD/GF/SLW/STD (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (88%) - Not in a G1-2/LST/Cl3-5 (Debut)
- 9 / 10 (60%) - In a field of 7 - 11 (Last Win)
- 9 / 10 (71%) - Highest Won is not G3/LST/Cl3
- 9 / 10 (74%) - No bigger than 58/5 (Career Win)
- 9 / 10 (78%) - No bigger than 58/5 (Last Win)
- 9 / 10 (80%) - Carried 118 - 124lbs (Last Win)
- 9 / 10 (81%) - Furthest Won 7f - 1m1f
Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Churchill Downs racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Kentucky Derby. if you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Kentucky Derby by adding a tip on the race here.
Kentucky Derby Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +126.50 is when runners had 3 career places in Non-Handicap. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a furthest trip won of 8½f, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-60.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2023: Winner in 8 (3,12) [18 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 20 (3,10) [20 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 7 (9,14) [19 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 15 (14,7) [15 Runners]
- 2019: Winner in 19 (12,9) [19 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Kentucky Derby is Gulfstream Park, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Gulfstream Park last time out.
Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Kentucky Derby, that stallion Into Mischief has produced 2 winners (2021,2020).
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Kentucky Derby despite multiple attempts:
- Tapit (0 Wins from 12 runners)
- Candy Ride (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- Curlin (0 Wins from 8 runners)
- Giants Causeway (0 Wins from 5 runners)
- Hard Spun (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Rich Strike in 2022, winning for Eric R Reed at odds of 81/1 under the guidance of Sonny Leon. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there have been 5 winning favourites in the race. Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2024 Kentucky Derby. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.
Kentucky Derby Trend Shortlist
Churchill Downs will host the 2024 renewal of the Kentucky Derby which will be run at 11:57 pm on Saturday 4th May 2024 and these are the runners who perform best based on the trends along with the trainer and jockey and their record in the race (Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP):
- 15/15 Sierra Leone (3/1)
- Chad C Brown (6-0-2 -6.00 / -5.00)
- Tyler Gaffalione (6-0-0 -6.00 / -6.00)
- 15/15 Stronghold (20/1)
- Philip DAmato (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
- Antonio Fresu (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
Others: Endlessly (14/15), Grand Mo The First (13/15), Catching Freedom (13/15), Just Steel (12/15), Epic Ride (12/15), Dornoch (12/15), Fierceness (12/15), Mystik Dan (12/15), Resilience (12/15), West Saratoga (11/15), Track Phantom (11/15), Domestic Product (11/15), Encino (11/15), Honor Marie (11/15), Catalytic (9/15), Just A Touch (9/15), Mugatu (9/15), Society Man (9/15), Forever Young (9/15) and T O Password (8/15).
*Trainer & Jockey numbers are Runs-Wins-Places Win LSP / EW LSP, Runners, Odds and Trends Passed/Failed correct at the time of posting (12:30 pm Tuesday 30th April 2024), if no odds were available at the time of posting then forecasted odds are used.
Kentucky Derby Scoring Trends
If you want a more in-depth way of using the Kentucky Derby trends from previous renewals then the scoring trends may be the ones for you, these are calculated by looking at over 100 factors including aspects of breeding, horse factors, things like runs, wins and places during their career, under certain circumstances like over the trip or on the ground and many more.
Using all of this information we can assign each horse a score based on how past runners in the Kentucky Derby performed when running under the same factors, we assign 80% of the score for the win statistics and 20% of the score for place statistics. Here are the top two scoring runners in the 2024 Kentucky Derby based on the information above, why not compare those to what the OLBG racing tipsters are tipping?
Here are the top 3 scorers at the time of posting (12:30 pm Tuesday 30th April 2024):
- 🥇 Fierceness (5/2)
- Todd Pletcher (28-1-3 -22.30 / -23.65)
- John R Velazquez (10-2-3 +5.10 / -0.11)
- 🥈 Sierra Leone (3/1)
- Chad C Brown (6-0-2 -6.00 / -5.00)
- Tyler Gaffalione (6-0-0 -6.00 / -6.00)
- 🥉 Stronghold (20/1)
- Philip DAmato (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
- Antonio Fresu (0-0-0 0.00 / 0.00)
Others: Grand Mo The First, Just Steel, Endlessly, Just A Touch, T O Password, Epic Ride, Catching Freedom, Catalytic, Mystik Dan, West Saratoga, Mugatu, Track Phantom, Resilience, Encino, Dornoch, Honor Marie, Society Man, Domestic Product and Forever Young.
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Kentucky Derby Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for International racing.
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