Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
2024 Japan Cup Preview
Scheduled to take place in November of each year at the Tokyo racecourse is the Japan Cup, one of the most prestigious races to take place in Japan and attracts plenty of interest from around the world. The race features on the last Sunday of November each year and is a Grade 1 race that is contested over a distance of one mile and four furlongs (2,400m) in which runners aged three or older can enter.
Established in 1981, the race was originally restricted which meant there were no European entries into the race but that was scraped and in 1986, Clive Brittain's Jupiter Island became the first British raider to win the race. Both Singspiel (1996) and Pilsudski (1997) won the race giving Sir Michael Stoute back-to-back winners in the race, he is only one of two trainers to do so, Sei Ishizaka (2012-13) was the other. The only other British success came in 2005 when Frankie rode Alkaased to success for Luca Cumani.
Success for any raider has been hard to come by, a Japanese trained runner has now won the race every year since 2006 and all bar one of those (Admire Moon in 2007 was UAE-owned) were also Japanese-owned runners. There has been plenty of success for European jockeys, Christophe Lemaire is a three-time winner including in both 2018 & 2020, Frankie Dettori is also a three-time winner with his last coming in 2005, Oisin Murphy won the race in 2019 and Ryan Moore won it in 2013.
Japan Cup Information:
How competitive is the Japan Cup market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 10 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2016 when the race had an over-round of 126%. The race in 2018 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 130%, whilst on average over the last 10 renewals of the Japan Cup, the over-round has been 128%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £128 which is bet.
Japan Cup Trends:
Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 10 if you had followed the winner of the Japan Cup next time out then you would have backed a total of 1 winner. Backing all 7 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -4.80. See which other runners are being backed today on the racing predictions page.
Over the last 10 renewals, it was the Sakae Kunieda trained Almond Eye ridden by Christophe-Patrice Lemaire who set the fastest winning time in the Japan Cup, the runner won the race in a time of 2:20.60 was set when winning the race in 2018. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Yasushi Shono and jockey Oisin Murphy with Suave Richard who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 2:25.90 in the 2019 renewal.
These are the top three quickest-run Japan Cup over the last 10 renewals:
- 2018 - Almond Eye (2:20.60)
- 2023 - Equinox (2:21.80)
- 2020 - Almond Eye (2:23.00)
Japan Cup Past Winners
Here are the Japan Cup past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. Also detailed is the stall where the horse came from and the total number of runners in the race. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Japan Cup as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.
| Year | Horse (Drawn) | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 2:21.80 | Equinox (JPN) 4yo 9-2 (2 of 18) 30/100F | Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Tetsuya Kimura (JPN) |
| 2022 2:23.70 | Vela Azul (JPN) 5yo 9-0 (6 of 18) 7/2 | Ryan Moore Kunihiko Watanabe (JPN) |
| 2021 2:24.70 | Contrail (JPN) 4yo 9-0 (2 of 18) 3/5F | Yuichi Fukunaga Yoshito Yahagi (JPN) |
| 2020 2:23.00 | Almond Eye (JPN) 5yo 8-9 (2 of 15) 6/5F | Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Sakae Kunieda (JPN) |
| 2019 2:25.90 | Suave Richard (JPN) 5yo 9-0 (5 of 15) 41/10 | Oisin Murphy Yasushi Shono (JPN) |
| 2018 2:20.60 | Almond Eye (JPN) 3yo 8-5 (1 of 14) 2/5F | Christophe-Patrice Lemaire Sakae Kunieda (JPN) |
| 2017 2:23.70 | Cheval Grand (JPN) 5yo 9-0 (1 of 17) 123/10 | Hugh Bowman Yasuo Tomomichi (JPN) |
| 2016 2:25.80 | Kitasan Black (JPN) 4yo 9-0 (1 of 17) 14/5F | Yutaka Take Hisashi Shimizu (JPN) |
| 2015 2:24.70 | Shonan Pandora (JPN) 4yo 8-9 (15 of 18) 41/5 | Kenichi Ikezoe Tomokazu Takano (JPN) |
| 2014 2:23.10 | Epiphaneia (JPN) 4yo 9-0 (4 of 18) 79/10 | Christophe Soumillon Katsuhiko Sumii (JPN) |
Where have the winning runners come from?
Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Japan Cup have been based:
- JPN: 10 winners with an additional 20 placings from 143 runners
- FR: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 8 runners
- GER: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 8 runners
- IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 5 runners
- GB: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 2 runners
- CAN: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
- HK: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 1 runner
Japan Cup Trainer Statistics
The leading trainer in the Japan Cup over the last 10 renewals is Sakae Kunieda who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Almond Eye (2018 & 2020).
Here are some of the top Japan Cup trainer statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Trainer | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sakae Kunieda | 5-2-3 | -1.40 | -0.59 |
| Yasuo Tomomichi | 16-1-3 | -2.70 | -7.52 |
| Yoshito Yahagi | 7-1-2 | -5.40 | -5.02 |
| Katsuhiko Sumii | 6-1-1 | +2.90 | -1.05 |
| Yasushi Shono | 2-1-2 | +3.10 | +2.51 |
| Kunihiko Watanabe | 2-1-1 | +2.50 | +0.75 |
| Hisashi Shimizu | 2-1-2 | +1.80 | +0.90 |
| Tetsuya Kimura | 2-1-2 | -0.70 | -0.35 |
| Tomokazu Takano | 1-1-1 | +8.20 | +4.10 |
| Kazuo Fujisawa | 7-0-2 | -7.00 | -6.00 |
Japan Cup Jockey Statistics
The leading jockey in the Japan Cup over the last 10 renewals is Christophe-Patrice Lemaire who has won the race three times with those three winners coming from Almond Eye (2018 & 2020) and Equinox (2023).
Here are some of the top Japan Cup jockey statistics over the last 10 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):
| Jockey | R-W-P | Win | EW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christophe-Patrice Lemaire | 9-3-5 | -4.10 | -3.89 |
| Ryan Moore | 8-1-2 | -3.50 | -4.75 |
| Yutaka Take | 7-1-2 | -3.20 | -4.10 |
| Yuichi Fukunaga | 5-1-4 | -3.40 | -2.02 |
| Kenichi Ikezoe | 3-1-1 | +6.20 | +2.10 |
| Christophe Soumillon | 2-1-1 | +6.90 | +2.95 |
| Hugh Bowman | 1-1-1 | +12.30 | +6.15 |
| Oisin Murphy | 1-1-1 | +4.10 | +2.46 |
| Yuga Kawada | 9-0-5 | -9.00 | -5.35 |
| Mirco Demuro | 9-0-2 | -9.00 | -7.45 |
2024 Japan Cup Trends
Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 4, 3, 1, 3, 1, 11, 1, 1, 2, 1
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. The trend information is based on the available information on the racing post in terms of previous runs etc.
- 10 / 10 (28%) - No bigger than 123/10
- 10 / 10 (30%) - Within the first 5 of the market
- 10 / 10 (55%) - Off a break of 28 - 48 days
- 10 / 10 (61%) - Achieved an RPR of 109+ (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (64%) - Furthest Won 1m3f - 2mf
- 10 / 10 (65%) - No bigger than 113/10 (Debut)
- 10 / 10 (67%) - Achieved an RPR of 113+ (Last 3)
- 10 / 10 (68%) - No bigger than 33/5 (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (68%) - Not in a G3/Cl2 (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (69%) - No more than +2yrs (Vs Min Age)
- 10 / 10 (70%) - No bigger than 181/10 (LTO)
- 10 / 10 (70%) - Ran in Japan (Last Win)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - No bigger than 62/5 (Career Win)
- 10 / 10 (71%) - Dam is not ARG/AUS/CAN/CHI/FR/GB/GER/IRE bred
- 10 / 10 (75%) - Beaten no more -5½l (LTO)
Maybe you are looking to back something in this race on the tote, but you are not sure of the process or how the tote works, No problem! We have an article which is dedicated to The Tote for you to read which explains everything you need to know! Be sure to check out the other articles in the OLBG Betting School.
Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts here.
Japan Cup Trend Analysis
The trend factor which had produced 5+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +0.30 is when runners were 1st in the betting market. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners were aged 6yo, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-32.
Here are the most recent winning draws along with the further placings in brackets:
- 2023: Winner in 2 (1,17) [18 Runners]
- 2022: Winner in 6 (15,3) [18 Runners]
- 2021: Winner in 2 (7,4) [18 Runners]
- 2020: Winner in 2 (6,5) [15 Runners]
- 2019: Winner in 5 (1,2) [15 Runners]
The course which has produced the most winners of the Japan Cup is Tokyo, there has been a total number of 6 winners of this race who ran at Tokyo last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Kyoto, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Kyoto last time out.
The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 7 winners from a total of 143 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 3 winners from a total of 25 runners.
Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Japan Cup:
- Deep Impact (2 Wins)
- Hearts Cry (2 Wins)
- Lord Kanaloa (2 Wins)
These are the stallions whose offspring have not produced a winner of the Japan Cup despite multiple attempts:
- King Kamehameha (0 Wins from 12 runners)
- Stay Gold (0 Wins from 10 runners)
- Rulership (0 Wins from 6 runners)
- Jungle Pocket (0 Wins from 5 runners)
Looking at the winning odds over the last 10 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Cheval Grand in 2017, winning for Yasuo Tomomichi at odds of 123/10 under the guidance of Hugh Bowman. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 10 renewals there have been 5 winning favourites in the race. All figures and trends above, such as the horse's previous runs are based on the information that is available on the racing post.
Other Principal races at Tokyo Racecourse
Here are some other notable races at the Tokyo racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.
Races in May
Races in October
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