Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites
Do you believe that your selection has a better than 50% chance of winning?
If you do and you can get better odds than 1/1(Even Money) then you should make the bet.
You can convert the odds offered by the best online bookies and calculate the implied probability percentage the odds represent.
If you are unsure on calculation please read below OR check out the betting school article on understanding bookmakers.
Calculation
All you need to do is divide the decimal odds by 1.
- 1/1.8 = 55%.
- 1/2.0 = 50%
- 1/2.5 = 40%.
- 1/1.8 = 4/5 0.55 x100 = Implied Probability of 55 %
- 1/2.0 = 1/1 0.50 x100 = implied Probability of 50 %
- 1/2.5 = 6/4 0.40 x 100 = implied probability of 40 %
You believe that your selection has a better than 50/50 chance and if you are getting odds of 2.5 (6/4) then you are getting value.
It does depend on your take on the event but this formula can be used on any event.
Betting Example
If you look at a recent football match at the Etihad, these odds are from bookmaker NetBet.
- Man City 1.9 = Implied Probability of 52.63 %
- Draw 3.7 = Implied Probability of 27.02 %
- Man Utd 4.33 = Implied Probability of 23.09 %
- Total Percentage = 102.74 %
Do Man Utd have a better than 23.09% chance of winning at the Etihad?
Are Man City a good thing and should be shorter with Mourino's team suffering from injuries?
Will the rivals from the North West cancel each other out?
You now have the percentage chance that the odds represent.
NetBet has an over-round of 102.74 on the match, you may find that by taking the best odds from a range of online bookies you can get that % down to closer to 100% and that your selection is even better priced.
Best Prices
- Man City 1.91 = Implied Probability of 52.35 %
- Draw 3.9 = Implied Probability of 25.64 %
- Man Utd 4.55 = Implied Probability of 21.97 %
- Total Percentage =99.96%
Now do you believe that your selection has a better % chance of winning than the odds offered?
This is why odds comparison is key, because if you can find and take the best odds then you are getting better value, and have the figures and percentage chance more in your favour.
Why not check all the away teams on OLBG in say the Championship and compare their percentage chance offered by the bookmakers.
When it comes to Football accumulators these differences in prices and percentages make a huge difference as more selections naturally add more risk and worsen your % chance of success,
This is why making sure the best prices are taken and the percentages are as much in your favour as possible.
You may find the implied probability of 1 of these teams too generous and can step in and take the value odds.
Convert the odds you are reading and decide whether the percentage chance of this happening is better or worse than the figures, and your betting will be more efficient.
