Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
I was discussing the US Sports market the other day, and I was mentioning how I felt that there was good value in the puck line on NHL betting.
The best betting sites are forever amending odds bui still think even these days value can be gleaned
- The popular puck line in NHL betting is a form of spread betting that adjusts the playing field between two unevenly matched teams
- it adds an element of thrill to every match.
- With the puck line @ -1.5 goals for the favorite and @ +1.5 for the outsider,
- There is potential for an upset that keeps the game engaging.
- The odds and value on each side depend on how evenly matched the teams are.
The odds may look like ths
The favorite -1.5 @ 1.73
The outsider +1.5 @ 3.10
If you bet on the the favorite @ -1.5, they must win by 2 or more goals for your bet to win.
If you bet on the outsider @ +1.5 they must either win the game outright or lose by no more than 1 goal for you to win
NHL & Ice Hockey Tips
Ice Hockey Tipping
I felt like the odds were pretty generous, and that about half the games seemed to be won by more than one goal, so the regular odds of between 2.5 up to 3.75 seemed very good value.
Obviously, the -1.5 goals are only available for the favourite, and the favourite didn't always win in these games.
Even over a week, the sample size is a little smaller than ideal.
It seems to me like the prices have dropped a little, and whereas over 3.00 was a regular occurrence, recently there seem to be as many under 3.00 betting odds as there are over.
Master the Art of Value Betting and Maximize Your Winnings
During the week there were 43 matches, and 24 of those were won by more than one goal or 56%.
I decided to monitor all the matches in the NHL for a week to get a decent sample size, and the findings were quite striking.
NHL Stats Regular Season
- Tampa Bay Lightning were the top scorers with 319 Goals from 82 games at an average of 3.89 per game.
- Anaheim Ducks were the lowest scorers with 196 goals from 82 games at an average of 2.39 per game.
- Average Goals Scored By All Teams was 2.980 per game.
- 17 teams averaged more goals for than against.
- 14 teams averaged more goals against than for.
In hindsight, I should have monitored whether it was the favourite which won or not, but if the favourite won 2/3 of the time (I think I'm low balling here), that would mean 37% of the time the favourite covered the puck line.
To make a profit at that rate would only require a 2.7 average price.
I might have a look another time at what return betting on every match to be won by the favourite -1.5 goals would generate.
However, my takeaway from my findings is that I feel justified in the strategy I have been using when betting in the NHL
If you think a team is likely to win, take the puck line as well as or instead of the money line.
If you manage to pick the winning team, there is a good chance that they will win by more than one goal.
Image: nhl.com
Taking a very pessimistic average return of as low as 2.7, you only need to get 2 out of 5 to break even with a little profit.
Obviously, these things tend to even out, so after a night with barely any wins by more than one, it is worth having a punt in my opinion.
It seems obvious, but games going over the total were more likely to be won by more than one goal.
Obviously, there will be certain factors that make teams more or less likely to win by multiple goals, but it seems that if you are confident of a team winning, then it is worth chancing it on the puck line.
2024/25 Season
Below are some example puck line prices from the NHL in the 2024/25 season.
As mentioned it seems prices have continued to drop with only the Ottawa Senators above 3.0 in those four example matches.
| Match | Match | Match | Match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Kings (+1.5)1.40 | Florida Panthers (+1.5) 1.43 | Utah Hockey Club (+1.5) 1.60 | Detroit Red Wings (+1.5) 1.70 |
| Ottawa Senators (-1.5) 3.05 | Boston Bruins (-1.5) 2.90 | New Jersey Devils (-1.5) 2.40 | New York Rangers (-1.5) 2.20 |
Obviously the odds will vary on Ice Hockey matches, you must make sure you shop around and always take advantage of the best prices.
The following article should always be at your side as it highlight which bookmakers you should be selecting for your hard earned money.
