The True Meaning Of Value Betting

I often see dotted through the forums quotes such as

"I think XXXXXXXX will win, but evens is no price for me"

"There's no value in this 1/2 shot"

"XXXXXX should win this but I don't back under 2/1"

and various other quotes of the same ilk. 

To read more about becoming an expert in value betting check out this article.

Big Bucks

Big Bucks was a prime example on Saturday at Newbury. 

He went off at 1/12 favourite and was available earlier in the day at 1/10.

I saw plenty of people saying they couldn't back at that price. Why not?

He was a massive 18lbs well in at the weights, which on that softer ground meant either he would have run his poorest race over hurdles in years or one of the trio of rivals would have had to improve by a massive amount.

You simply couldn't make a case for either. 

Big Bucks had won all 18 of his hurdle races 17 of which were in this country attached to an official rating of above 150. So you couldn't make a case for him putting in a poor performance.

The only thing you'd be betting against would then be him falling, of which there's typically a less than 5% chance of any horse doing so. 

Factor in his sterling jumping over hurdles (only fell once in career and that was over fences so 1/25 chance in total if you like) and even then you are getting 10% returns backing against something that only has a likelihood of well less than 5%.

The true chance of Big Bucks losing was around 1/20 or 1/25 for me, which meant the available odds were the true definition of value.

Betting Multiples aren't value?

Multiples are generally a bookie's best friend because weekend punters will nip into the shop and back a plethora of teams looking for a quick fix big payout.

No surprise the bookies still have enough cash about for their Christmas parties even in this economic climate.

However, multiples CAN be value in the same instance as singles.

If you have two football teams available to win their respective matches at 1/1 which is a 50% chance of winning each then the double is available at 3/1 which is a 25% chance.

You believe that both teams have a greater chance than the 50% available to back, let's say a 66% chance.

If you class both bets as value, then surely the double bet would also be value.

The two 66% chances would give you an expected chance of around 43%, yet you can back this at 3/1.

Value = True Chance Of Winning > Available Betting Odds

That's where the key to profit is. 

Some people will tell you they'd prefer to back 9 out of 10 winning even shots and generate a +8.00 LSP. Others will say they prefer to back 1 winner in 10 at 17/1 to achieve the same +8.00 LSP.

It's the same end result and the same means of value.

 In both instances, the strike rate has exceeded the odds being backed to become value and that's all there is to making a successful profit.