Do the best horses win Grade 1 Chases? - Let's have a look

Chase Stats Archive

7 and 8-year-old Grade 1 runners

These are the most successful group over the last decade.

Horses of that age are responsible for just over 50% of the 157 winners of Grade 1 chases in Britain since 2000. 

The average age of Grade 1 winner over the last decade is just over 7 years old. 

Don't get me wrong, 6-year-olds win these events too (26 of them). So too do 9 year olds (26 of them). But the sweet spot in the statistical record is clearly the 7 to 8-year-old band.

For the record, only a single 4-year-old has won a Grade 1 chase over the last decade - Long Run in 2010 King George (proof if further were needed of his quality and potential). 

And just 7 times horses aged 11 or older have prevailed - and Kauto Star & Moscow Flyer were responsible for two of those wins each.

Oppose the more experienced chasers in Grade 1 races

The average Grade 1 chase winner over the last decade had raced just under 10 times over fences. 

Kauto Star, Best Mate and Long Run demonstrated their quality early on - winning a Grade 1 with 3 or fewer chases under their belts. 

At the other end of the scale Edredon Bleu was winning a Grade 1 with 30 chases behind him. 

The percentage play is to side with horses in Grade 1 races with 15 or fewer chases in their legs. 

Of our 157 Grade 1 winners over the last decade 120 had raced no more than 15 times over fences.

It pays to stick with the French and the Irish-breds

Again that might sound like an obvious statement to some of you. 

We hear a lot about the dominance of Irish and French-bred horses over the jumps but the stats reveal exactly how dominant those two breeds are at the highest level of the chasing game. 

Horses bred in either Ireland or France are responsible for a whopping 140 of the 157 winners of Grade 1 British chases since the beginning of 2000.

British bred horses have won just 13 Grade 1 chases in that time - 9 of them at a trip shorter than 3 miles.

It clearly doesn't pay to follow the 'home' horses at the top level.

Don't be tempted to bet the fairer sex

Because the historical record is against you. 

32 mares have tried their hand in a Grade 1 chase run in Britain since the beginning of 2000 producing not a single winner. 

Every Grade 1 chase winner over the period was a male horse.

Back Grade 1 runners off a decent break

A Grade 1 race is a competitive affair that demands a lot from a horse and takes a lot out of it.

As such horses need to go into Grade 1 races in peak condition - if they are to win them. 

The stats suggest that horses going into Grade 1 races having had a recent race lack the necessary shine to produce of their best. 

Over the last decade, more than 200 horses have gone into a Grade 1 chase less than 3 weeks after a previous run - just 12 managed to win. 

145 of our 157 Grade 1 winners had been rested for 3 weeks or longer before their Grade 1 triumph (including all of last seasons winners). 

The percentage play is to side with rested horses.

Be wary of horses wearing blinkers

These are often a sign of a horse with a slightly suspect temperament. 

The stats suggest such horses cannot be trusted at the top level of the chasing game. 

Over 50 horses have gone to post in a Grade 1 chase wearing blinkers over the last decade. Just 2 have won. On the stats they are best voided.

Big margin Grade 1 wins denote horses of serious quality

It sounds like a painfully obvious thing to say, and it is.

But sometimes we know what to think without really understanding why we think it.

Of the 157 Grade 1 chase winners over the last decade or so just 36 races were won by 10 lengths or more. 

Their names read like a who's who of top chasers:

 Kauto Star, Master Minded, Voy Por Ustedes, Moscow Flyer, Long Run, Best Mate, Flagship Uberalles, First Gold, Denman & Sprinter Sacre. 

When a horse wins a Grade 1 chase by 10 lengths or more you know you are looking at a superstar.