Super Bowl LIV - Predictions and Betting Tips

Tale of the Tape

Gman84

I’m going to keep this simple.  I’ve gone all over the place with who I like here and I can believe literally any result if it happens but, I’m going to break out a cliche and it’s "defense wins championships"..hence, my pick is the 49ers.

I do think the 49ers are the better all around team but the Chiefs have a massive edge at Quarterback.  If Mahomes gets hot early and opens up a lead, then it’s a different kettle of fish.

Something to look for and you’ll see it in my prop bets...the 49ers love to run the hot hand in their rush attack.  It’s been Raheem Mostert, especially in the Championship game where he racked up over 200 yards and 4TD’s but I can see Tevin Coleman, who looks like he’ll be fit for this, as a factor.  He’s a bit more of a factor as a receiver as well.  

For the Chiefs, I like Mecole Hardman to make some plays.  As good as the 49ers D is, you can get deep behind it so it’s not hard to believe both Coleman and Tyreek Hill could deliver some big plays.  

Ultimately though, I’m staying loyal to the NFC and taking the Niners, led by their defense. 

Toadie21

I love the Super Bowl and unless it’s the Packers or I have a nice big priced ante post bet (Could of been the Titans) I try and keep any bets I have neutral so I can enjoy the game. 

This year I do fancy the 49ers, but rather than having them to win I’d have them to score points, then if the Chiefs do something amazing I can applaud it rather than getting stressed.

The Chiefs are a great team and Mahomes just amazes me every week but even though the stats may suggest their defence has been great in the latter end of the season I’m not so sure. They got let off big time by the Texans and one of the reasons is the myth that you have to score 40points and win in a shootout vs the Chiefs. 

You’d like to think that Kyle Shanahan has learnt this lesson after the heartbreak against the Patriots in SuperBowl LI (when he was Falcons OC), sometimes you need to just eat clock and not be too clever.

If the Chiefs do win I think it would be in a shootout as I can’t see the Chiefs defence stopping the 49ers. But the 49ers are capable of winning a shootout but also, their defence is rock solid and they could shut down the Chiefs offence.  Either way I see the 49ers scoring.

Enjoy the big game. I’m waiting for the blog to see what the others think then will sick on a few fun bet builder style bets.

Lazarus76

Got to say at the start I really like both of these teams, I love what the 49ers under Shanahan have become and like many I can’t fail to be impressed about the Chiefs under Andy Reid.

This really is the arch-typical NFL game, Offence (Chiefs) vs. Defence (49ers), don’t get me wrong the 49ers aren’t all about defence but they are immensely strong on that side of the ball and to be honest they will need to be as the Chiefs with Mahomes playing Madden in real life are about as good as it gets.

The 49ers game plan will be quite simple, run the ball, score early and keep Mahomes on the sidelines, a great plan on paper but as the Texans and Titans found out this game isn’t played on paper, should you execute part one of the plan, i.e. score early - can you keep Mahomes quiet for 60 minutes?  I doubt it! This 49ers defence will have to have the game of their lives to nullify the Chiefs high-powered offence.

I honestly don’t mind who wins this one and I will enjoy the game for the spectacle that it is, my heart and my head both say Chiefs though.  Patrick Mahomes has too much talent and has plenty of weapons around him. Tyreek Hill is the fastest thing on the pitch and when Mahomes hits him it’s game over, it’s almost unfair he’s that quick!!.

I can see the 49ers causing problems and scoring a fair few points but can they keep pace with the Chiefs?  Not for me.

TouchdownTips

The big one is here and I think the bookies have done a decent job pricing it up, it's obviously going to be a close game between two very good teams, but in honesty I think I'd probably have the Chiefs as slightly bigger favourites, so that's a hint to where I'm leaning in this one.

It's going to be a very intriguing game but I'm just not sure the 49ers will be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.  They've not faced a team who can put up 28 points in a single quarter and while they love the run game, much like the Titans vs Chiefs game, I'm not sure they'll be able to use it so much if they trail by 10 points or so. If that happens then more goes into the hands of Jimmy Garoppolo and while he's a good QB, I'm just not sure he can win the game for them but I am sure he’s capable of giving the game away for them. 

For the Chiefs slowing the run game is the key.  For the 49ers it's probably keeping the ball away from the Chiefs and getting to Mahomes before long routes develop, which is entirely possible with a great 49ers defensive line. 

I think there's two results here, 49ers win a close one, or the Chiefs win by 7-14. 

So I think the Chiefs win, cover the spread and while the number has been rising all week I can't advise the under on the total, so I guess I've got to say over.

This really should be a cracking game and I can't wait to watch it!  Enjoy!

Summary And Tips

It’s a split verdict.  The spread tells you this is a tight game and so does our respective decisions about the game.  Given that close spread, whoever wins is likely to cover but we all like there to be plenty of scoring and despite the high line for the points, the majority verdict is for the over.  Best price around on the line of 54 is 10/11 with William Hill. Given our split over the game winner maybe you can double up on the team you like with the points over.

We’ve given a mix of the obvious and the different for our MVP picks.  Both QB’s get a mention which should be no surprise and they are the most likely winners but myself and TouchdownTips offer a couple of bigger prices.  I like the 49ers D to be the star(s) of the game and if Nick Bosa gets 2-3 sacks, I could see him getting his name mentioned. TouchdownTips can see Chiefs rusher Damien Williams being involved a lot as a receiver (see his prop bets) as well as a rusher and if he makes a key play or two, that could get his name in the mix.  Both are 25/1 shots with William Hill.

Prop Bets

Gman84:

Team with the longest play from the line of scrimmage - Chiefs at 5/7 with William Hill

Special Teams or Defensive TD Scored, 9/4 with bet365

Anytime TD Scorer: Tevin Coleman (49ers), 12/5 with William Hill

First TD Scorer: Mecole Hardman, 25/1 with SkyBet

To Score A Hat-Trick of TD’s: Tevin Coleman (49ers) - 100/1 with Coral

Toadie21:

49ers to score over 26.5pts at 5/6 with bet365

J.Garoppolo over 1.5 passing TDs at 10/11 with SkyBet

J Garoppolo anytime TD at 8/1 with bet365

M.Hardman anytime TD at 7/2 with SkyBet, William Hill

2nd half highest scoring half at 20/21 with Boylesports

Either team to score 3 unanswered times - NO at 7/4 with betway

Successful 2point conversion - YES at 11/4 with bet365

Lazarus76:

Tyreek Hill to score 2 or more td’s at 6/1 with Betfair

Safety to be scored at 7/1 with betway

Punt to be returned for a TD @10/1

Kickoff to be returned for TD @12/1 (would like it to be either a punt or kickoff returned, I guess you could Dutch it at around the 11/2 mark).

TouchdownTips:

Chiefs over 27.5pts at 20/23 with betway

Mecole Hardman longest reception over 12.5 yards

Damien Williams over 3.5 receptions at 10/11 with betway

Kendrick Bourne anytime TD at 11/4 with bet365

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Gman84 @ChrisJBrophy

Toadie21 @ajones450

Lazarus76 @lazarus76

TouchdownTips @TouchdownTips

For more anytime TD scorer selections use #anytimetdscorer