Horse Racing, greyhounds and snooker specialist with thirty years experience of writing about sport across multiple platforms. A QPR and Snooker fan
How risk-averse are you?
Every so often I make a very profound statement and I clearly remember the last one in 1967!
However, I digress and this is a serious question, as bettors, we need to know about risk and how to gamble responsibly.
Please try not to look too far ahead before thinking about each part of this risk blog.
Taken from a comment I made on a recent thread
For my first example, let's take the dreaded coin toss with a 100% book as an example.Joe BACKS heads at evens and it comes down tails.
Fred LAYS tails and it comes down tails.
This may in some part explain some people's apathy towards laying.
Football Betting
Now let's take a football match with a 100% book on Betfair and
I am totally convinced that a lot more people would prefer to back the double chance ( Draw/Away ) at 2.0 rather than Lay the home at 2.0.
BBC 2 Experiment 1
By chance, I tuned in to BBC2 late last night and Horizon was on. They showed a few experiments.
At each stage please imagine for a moment what YOU would do given the same circumstances before reading on.
The experiments can not be accurately replicated here due to all readers are likely to have more interest in gambling than many he would have come across in the street.
1 You meet a stranger in the street and he kindly gives you a £10 note assuring you that it is yours to keep whatever happens next.
Obviously that goes straight into your pocket/wallet/purse.
He then gives you a further £5 but this time there is also a decision to make.
You may keep the £5 or toss a ( genuine ) coin to see whether he replaces it with a £10 note or simply takes away the £5 note, remember you still have £10 safely tucked away.
BBC 2 Experiment 2
The second experiment was with different people but obviously, that can't be done here so if possible for the moment please try to ignore the first experiment when thinking about the second.
You meet a stranger in the street and he kindly gives you £20 this time but with a catch.
He wants to take £5 back.
However, you are again given a choice.
He is prepared to toss a ( still genuine ) coin to give you the chance to keep all of the £20 at the risk of giving him £10 back, the other £10 being yours to keep whatever.
Results
In the first experiment, a vast majority wanted to keep the £15.
In the second experiment, a similar majority took the chance.
They claimed the outcome was due to a different attitude towards risk in the two scenarios.
In the first, people were given £15 and were reluctant to lose any of it.
In the second case, people were given £20 and because they did not want to lose any of it were more prepared to take the gamble even should they end up losing more than necessary.
As you can see, the situations are really the same.
On each occasion, you have the choice between walking off with £15 or risking it becoming £10 or £20.
Can monkeys be taught the value of money
They then took it further, much further in fact to a very small island off Puerto Rica where a colony of monkeys has been raised that are totally at home with human company.
Obviously they can't but they can learn Value
As you will have grasped the basics by now, this is an abridged version of those trials, but you may still be surprised by the results.
Monkeys were given a disk that they could pass through a gap in a window and get a grape in return.
Of course, they soon learned that to get a grape, all they needed to do was pass a disk through a window.
Presumably, they used the same monkeys in this and later tests little.
This time they got three grapes in return for the disk. Again they were happy.
Now for a twist. The monkeys arrived at the window to offer a disk.
The bowl they were to receive could clearly be seen to hold a single grape but on receipt of the disk, a second grape was added before giving the bowl to the monkey.
Now for another twist.
The monkeys arrived at the window to offer a disk.
The bowl they were to receive could clearly be seen to hold three grapes but on receipt of the disk, one grape was removed before giving the bowl to the monkey.
The monkeys came to the window but had the option of passing the disk through the gap where a bowl contained one grape or the one where the bowl contained three grapes.
Now the monkeys went to the bowl with one grape having learned that this would get a bonus grape added rather than having one taken from it.
Again, the point of the experiment was that the monkey got two grapes by whichever means but would prefer to get at least what they started with rather than risk losing something they may have considered to be rightfully theirs.
To read more about risk and how to gamble responsibly please visit the betting school.
