Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
The purpose of this article is to provide readers with an update in respect of my ongoing investigations to develop a methodology to identify value Horse Racing wagers.
This will hopefully enable users to achieve long term, sustainable profits when backing these value selections.
This is a long-overdue update to the betting system, as I completed the analysis back in early April,, but was delayed due to illness and other commitments.
For readers who have yet to encounter the VALUE CALCULATOR, or wish to refresh their understanding of the mechanics and early results for this methodology, I would recommend that they take a few minutes to review my initial article which can be accessed here >>>: Introducing the VALUE CALCULATOR.
Since writing the original article in early January, I have been using the VALUE CALCULATOR to assess subsequent races on a daily basis, the results of which have been very pleasing, albeit I have been working alone and therefore due to time constraints, it has been necessary to focus on specific types of races.
This article will focus on Handicap Hurdle races.
Race and Value Criteria In Selection Of Races
I have focussed this analysis on handicap hurdle races (excluding novice events) held in the UK (excluding Ireland) between 7 January and 31 March 2017.
All of the selected hurdle races were of a relatively high standard (class 3, or higher).
The reasons for selecting the above criteria were twofold, in that, I wanted to ensure that most of the runners to be analysed would have sufficient experience over fences to facilitate a fairly accurate profile based on the Racing Post Postdata criteria, + also ensuring that the better quality horses were more likely to perform consistently and therefore run to form.
With regard to the selection process for identifying potentially value wagers, more detailed analysis of the data that I collated during 2016, which was used to write the original article indicated that it was most profitable to concentrate on the two VALUE CALCULATOR qualifiers which were available to back at the shortest odds in each race.
Results Achieved
Armed with the above criteria, I undertook the VALUE CALCULATOR analysis of 60 races on the evening prior to each race and having identified the top 2 qualifiers in the betting market at around 9.00 pm each evening, I placed a small stake win bet on each at the best odds available with the appropriate bookmaker (as indicated on Oddschecker), ensuring that all of the bets were struck with the best odds guaranteed concession.
The results achieved during this period were as follows:
| Criteria | Results |
|---|---|
| Races | 60 |
| Selections | 114 |
| Winners | 19 |
| Strike Rate | 17% |
| Stakes | £114.00 |
| Return | £146.12 |
| Profit | £32.12 |
| Return On Investment | 28.17% |
It should be noted that there was only one VALUE CALCULATOR qualifier in some races, whilst a few of my initial selections became nonrunners after my wager had been placed.
The profit figure is based on the returns from the bookmakers after taking into account Rule 4 deductions in respect of nonrunners.
However, whilst completing the above analysis, I noticed that all of the 19 winners had been successful in races with no more than 11 runners, so I, therefore, stripped out the results for races with 12 runners or more which produced the following results:
| Criteria | Results |
|---|---|
| Races | 46 |
| Selections | 88 |
| Winners | 19 |
| Strike Rate | 22% |
| Stakes | £88.00 |
| Return | £146.12 |
| Profit | £58.12 |
| Return On Investment | 66.04% |
Conclusions
Although the sample size of 60 races is not massive and it could be argued that the profit figure may be the result of a few lucky wagers, rather than an indication that the VALUE CALCULATOR is an effective method for identifying value selections,
I am reassured by the fact that these results were very much in line with the figures that I collated from the analysis of a further 55 races during last year.
I am therefore fairly confident that the current version of the VALUE CALCULATOR provides an effective methodology for identifying value wagers in better quality handicap hurdles.
However I must admit to being both surprised and a little concerned that not a single winner was achieved in the 14 handicap hurdles with more than 11 runners.
Perhaps it is just a statistical anomaly due to the small sample size?
Although it is also worth noting that only 3 of the 28 VALUE CALCULATOR selections managed to be placed in these handicap hurdle races, so there may be an underlying issue that will need to be addressed.
Future Analysis
Further analysis of handicap hurdle races has been placed on the back burner since I completed the above analysis, as once I recovered from illness, I wanted to concentrate on flat races on turf during the summer months.
However, I will refocus my attention on both hurdle races and chases, including Graded events, around mid to late October, with the aim of providing further updates in 2018.
As mentioned in my initial article, there are so many potential uses of the VALUE CALCULATOR, many of which I shall probably never find the time to investigate.
If anyone feels that they have the time and enthusiasm to get involved in this project, then it would be great to hear from you, via a private message.
I hope that readers have found this analysis of interest and as usual, I would welcome any comments and feedback, especially if readers have any similar ideas/methodologies/systems for assessing value that they are happy to share.
Also, if you have enjoyed this blog, please feel free to share the link on social media, with your friends and contacts.
Further articles relating to the VALUE CALCULATOR are easily accessible via the following VALUE CALCULATOR INDEX.
Finally, even if readers do not wish to undertake the VALUE CALCULATOR analysis on a regular basis, it may be worth the effort when considering maximum stakes bets, or just for a bit of fun.
If you are interested in creating a horse racing betting system this can be tested out using the free horse racing tips competition on OLBG.
