Andy Powell Content Editor Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
The purpose of this article is to provide readers with an update in
respect of my ongoing investigations to develop a methodology to
identify value Horse Racing wagers, which will hopefully enable
users to achieve long term, sustainable profits when backing these
value selections.For readers who have yet to encounter the VALUE
CALCULATOR, or wish to refresh their understanding of the mechanics
and early results for this methodology, I would recommend that they
take a few minutes to review my initial article which can be
accessed via the following link:Introducing the
VALUE CALCULATOR Since writing the original article in early
January, I have been using the VALUE CALCULATOR to assess
subsequent races on a daily basis, the results of which have been
very pleasing, albeit I have been working alone and therefore due
to time constraints, it has been necessary to focus on specific
types of races.This article will focus on handicap flat races of
class 3, or higher on turf.
Criteria for Choosing Races to
be Analysed and Selecting Value Wagers
I have focussed this analysis on higher class turf flat races that
have no age restriction (excluding 2yo and 3yo only events) held in
the UK (excluding Ireland) between 1 May and 30 June 2017.The
reasons for selecting the above criteria were twofold, in that I
wanted to ensure that most of the runners to be analysed would have
sufficient experience to facilitate a fairly accurate profile based
on the Racing Post Postdata criteria, whilst also ensuring that the
better quality horses were more likely to perform consistently and
therefore run to form.With regard to the selection process for
identifying potentially value wagers, more detailed analysis of the
data that I collated during 2016, which was used to write the
original article indicated that it was most profitable to
concentrate on the two VALUE CALCULATOR qualifiers which were
available to back at the shortest odds in each race.
Results Achieved
Armed with the above criteria, I undertook the VALUE CALCULATOR
analysis of 85 handicap races on the evening prior to each race and
having identified the top 2 qualifiers in the betting market at
around 9.00 pm each evening, I placed a small stake win bet on each
at the best odds available with the appropriate bookmaker (as
indicated on Oddschecker), ensuring that all of the bets were
struck with the best odds guaranteed concession.The results
achieved during this period were as follows:
RACES: 85
SELECTIONS: 173
WINNERS: 22
STRIKE RATE: 13%
STAKES: 173.00
RETURN: 197.43
PROFIT: 24.43
ROI: 14.12%
It should be noted that there was only one VALUE CALCULATOR
qualifier in some races, whilst there were a handful of events with
joint second selections which has resulted in slightly more than 2
selections per race over the period.The profit figure is based on
the returns from the bookmakers after taking into account Rule 4
deductions in respect of non runners.I also undertook further
analysis in respect of the results for the top 2 VALUE CALCULATOR
qualifiers based on the following additional criteria:Number of
runners in each raceRace distanceClass of handicap race (3, 2, or
listed)The performance of the top rated VALUE CALCULATOR qualifier
compared with the other selections (next best and joint next best)
from each raceThe performance of the qualifier that appeared to
offer the most value when compared with the best early odds on
offerHowever, there were no conclusive results from any of the
above mentioned investigations.
Conclusions
Top quality flat handicaps which are run on turf are generally
highly competitive events which often attract large field sizes, so
it is pleasing to note that the top 2 VALUE CALCULATOR qualifiers
produced a reasonable profit during the initial analysis
period.Although it may appear at first sight that a strike rate of
slightly less than 13% based on total selections is disappointing,
it should be noted that the top 2 qualifiers were successful in
just over 25% of all the races that have been analysed, which is a
fair return in such competitive races.However, the overall profit
is relatively low and in reality would have been wiped out by the
loss of one of the successful selections at Royal Ascot which was
backed at best early odds of 28/1 (SP 25/1) in a 29 runner
event!!Despite undertaking further detailed analysis, as mentioned
above, I was unable to identify any suitable filters that could be
used to significantly improve the overall profitability of the
VALUE CALCULATOR during the analysis period.However, I did notice
that the best results were achieved with selections that were able
to race when the underfoot conditions were exactly in line with the
official going description used by the Racing Post to complete the
Postdata table on the day before the race was run.The upshot of
this situation provides me with a dilemma, as the fundamental
strength of the VALUE CALCULATOR is the fact that it identifies
selections that can be backed at early odds (with best odds
guaranteed) that are generous when compared with the chance of the
horses winning the race, at which time there is no guarantee, due
to the vagaries of the British summer weather, that the going will
remain constant until after the race has been run.Perhaps I need to
monitor the weather forecasts more closely and only back VALUE
CALCULATOR selections when there is little chance of a going change
prior to the race being run?
Further Activities
I intend to continue using the VALUE CALCULATOR to analyse better
class handicap flat races on turf over the next few months and will
post a further update around the beginning of September, when
hopefully the overall profit figures will have increased, or I will
have identified one, or two additional filters which will
significantly improve the ROI figure.In the meantime, I will try to
complete my initial work on handicap hurdles that I promised in my
first update on handicap chases, which was curtailed due to my ill
health earlier this year.As mentioned in my initial article, there
are so many potential uses of the VALUE CALCULATOR, many of which I
shall probably never find the time to investigate, so if anyone
feels that they have the time and enthusiasm to get involved in
this project, then it would be great to hear from you, via a
private message.I hope that readers have found this analysis of
interest and as usual, I would welcome any comments and feedback,
especially if readers have any similar ideas/methodologies for
assessing value that they are happy to share.Also, if you have
enjoyed this blog, please feel free to share the link on social
media, with your friends and contacts who are interested in horse
racing.Further articles relating to the VALUE CALCULATOR are easily
accessible via the following link:
VALUE CALCULATOR
INDEX Finally, even if readers do not wish to undertake the
VALUE CALCULATOR analysis on a regular basis, it may be
worth the effort when considering maximum stakes bets, or for a bit
of fun occasionally applying the process to the selections of OLBG
members.Click here to view other
free horse
racing tips. 
