Profitable Horse Racing Betting System - Using The VALUE CALCULATOR To Assess All Weather Flat Handicaps

The purpose of this article is to provide readers with an update in respect of my ongoing investigations to develop a methodology to identify value Horse Racing wagers, which will hopefully enable users to achieve long term, sustainable profits when backing these value selections.For readers who have yet to encounter the VALUE CALCULATOR, or wish to refresh their understanding of the mechanics and early results for this methodology, I would recommend that they take a few minutes to review my initial article which can be accessed via the following link:Introducing the VALUE CALCULATOR Since writing the original article in early January, I have been using the VALUE CALCULATOR to assess subsequent races on a daily basis, the results of which have been very pleasing, albeit I have been working alone and therefore due to time constraints, it has been necessary to focus on specific types of races.This article will focus on handicap flat races at all weather tracks, but I intend to provide similar update for handicap flat races on turf in the near future.

Criteria for Choosing Races to be Analysed and Selecting Value Wagers

I have initially focussed this analysis on class 2 and 3 flat handicap races on the all weather that have no age restriction (thus excluding 2yo and 3yo only events) held in the UK (excluding Ireland) between 24 January and 23 June 2017.The reasons for selecting the above criteria were twofold, in that I wanted to ensure that most of the runners to be analysed would have sufficient experience to facilitate a fairly accurate profile based on the Racing Post Postdata criteria, whilst also ensuring that the better quality horses were more likely to perform consistently and therefore run to form.With regard to the selection process for identifying potentially value wagers, more detailed analysis of the data that I collated during 2016, which was used to write the original article indicated that it was most profitable to concentrate on the two VALUE CALCULATOR qualifiers which were available to back at the shortest odds in each race.

Results Achieved

Armed with the above criteria, I initially undertook the VALUE CALCULATOR analysis of 52 class 2 and 3 handicap races on the evening prior to each race and having identified the top 2 qualifiers in the betting market at around 9.00 pm each evening, I placed a small stake win bet on each at the best odds available with the appropriate bookmaker (as indicated on Oddschecker), ensuring that all of the bets were struck with the best odds guaranteed concession.The results achieved during this period were as follows:

RACES: 52
SELECTIONS: 102
WINNERS: 9
STRIKE RATE: 9%
STAKES: 102.00
RETURN: 122.75
PROFIT: 20.75
ROI: 20.34%

It should be noted that there was only one VALUE CALCULATOR qualifier in some races, whilst there were a handful of events with joint second selections which has resulted in slightly more than 2 selections per race over the period.The profit figure is based on the returns from the bookmakers after taking into account Rule 4 deductions in respect of non runners.Although the return on investment was perfectly acceptable, I was not overly impressed with the strike rate of just 9%, which equated to achieving a return in just 9 of the 52 races despite backing 2 selections in the vast majority of the events that were analysed.Further analysis revealed that a further 9 value based selections that were ranked lower in the betting market (positions 3 to 5 in the overall list of VALUE CALCULATOR qualifiers) had been successful, often at huge odds and if these additional selections had been added to the above table, the results would have been as follows:

RACES: 52
SELECTIONS: 176
WINNERS: 18
STRIKE RATE: 10%
STAKES: 176.00
RETURN: 286.00
PROFIT: 110.00
ROI: 62.50%

These results provided a bit of a shock to me, as this is the first time that I have encountered a race type where the lesser fancied VALUE CALCULATOR qualifiers have outperformed the top 2 selections in the market.However, as I stumbled upon this revelation at the beginning of May, I have found the time during the last couple of months to undertake similar analysis on a sample of class 4 and 5 handicaps on the all weather to ascertain whether a similar pattern emerged which would at least provide some level of vindication to my main finding.It is pleasing to note that the further analysis of the lower class handicaps since the start of May has produced a similar set of results, when comparing the performance of the top 2 selections, as follows:

RACES: 32
SELECTIONS: 64
WINNERS: 8
STRIKE RATE: 13%
STAKES: 64.00
RETURN: 65.75
PROFIT: 1.75
ROI: 2.73%

And more importantly when taking into account up to the top 5 VALUE CALCULATOR qualifier, as follows:

RACES: 32
SELECTIONS: 116
WINNERS: 16
STRIKE RATE: 14%
STAKES: 116.00
RETURN: 182.25
PROFIT: 66.25
ROI: 57.11%

Conclusions

Although the sample size for class 2 and 3 handicaps of 52 races is not massive and it could be argued that the profit figure may be the result of a few lucky wagers, rather than an indication that the VALUE CALCULATOR is an effective method for identifying value selections, I am reassured by the fact that these results were closely mirrored for the smaller sample of class 4 and 5 handicaps, which were analysed after the initial pattern had emerged.I am therefore fairly confident that the current version of the VALUE CALCULATOR provides an effective methodology for identifying value wagers in flat handicaps on the all weather, although having to back 3, 4 or even 5 selections in a race in order to maximise the profit potential appears to be a very inelegant solution.Personally, I have no problems with adopting this type of strategy if the profits warrant the effort, however for anyone who is uncomfortable with placing win bets on up to 5 selections in what could be an 8 runner race, it may be worth considering covering the appropriate number of qualifiers for each race in a permutation of reversed forecasts.I tend to use 1/10th of my unit stake for a win bet as my outlay for each forecast wager, so covering 4 qualifiers would require 12 bets of 0.1 units, making a total outlay of 1.2 units.Had I adopted this approach on the sample of class 2 and 3 handicaps, I would have collected a return in 7 of the 50 races where there was more than 1 VALUE CALCULATOR qualifier, which would have provided a overall return of 1027.30 micro units on an outlay of 468 micro units for a profit of 559.30 micro units which equates to a ROI of almost 120%.In light of the fact that significant profits appear to be achievable in relation to backing multiple selections to win and also covering them in reversed forecasts, I intend to implement 2 new MILLIONAIRE PLANS, as per the following strategy:How To Become A Sports Betting Millionaire (A Low Risk Strategy)

Further Activities

I intend to continue using the VALUE CALCULATOR to analyse flat handicap races on the all weather over the next few months and will post a further update towards the end of this year.In the meantime, I will also shortly post a separate articles covering the results of my analysis on both Group and Listed races and better quality flat handicaps on turf which I have been undertaking since the start of May, plus I will try to complete my initial work on handicap hurdles which I promised in my first update on handicap chases, which was curtailed due to my ill health earlier this year.As mentioned in my initial article, there are so many potential uses of the VALUE CALCULATOR, many of which I shall probably never find the time to investigate, so if anyone feels that they have the time and enthusiasm to get involved in this project, then it would be great to hear from you, via a private message.I hope that readers have found this analysis of interest and as usual, I would welcome any comments and feedback, especially if readers have any similar ideas/methodologies for assessing value that they are happy to share.Also, if you have enjoyed this blog, please feel free to share the link on social media, with your friends and contacts who are interested in horse racing.Further articles relating to the VALUE CALCULATOR are easily accessible via the following link:
VALUE CALCULATOR INDEX Finally, even if readers do not wish to undertake the VALUE CALCULATOR analysis on a regular basis, it may be worth the effort when considering maximum stakes bets, or for a bit of fun occasionally applying the process to the selections of OLBG members.Click here to view other free horse racing tips.