Profitable Horse Racing Betting System - Using the VALUE CALCULATOR to Assess Handicap Chases

The purpose of this article is to provide readers with an update in respect of my ongoing investigations to develop a methodology to identify value Horse Racing wagers, which will hopefully enable users to achieve long term, sustainable profits when backing these value selections.For readers who have yet to encounter the VALUE CALCULATOR, or wish to refresh their understanding of the mechanics and early results for this methodology, I would recommend that they take a few minutes to review my initial article which can be accessed via the following link:Introducing the VALUE CALCULATOR Since writing the original article in early January, I have been using the VALUE CALCULATOR to assess subsequent races on a daily basis, the results of which have been very pleasing, albeit I have been working alone and therefore due to time constraints, it has been necessary to focus on specific types of races.This article will focus on Handicap Chases, but I intend to provide similar updates for both Handicap Hurdles and All Weather Flat Handicaps in the near future.

Criteria for Choosing Races to be Analysed and Selecting Value Wagers

I have focussed this analysis on handicap chases (excluding novice events) held in the UK between 7 January and 21 March 2017.All of the selected chases were of a relatively high standard (class 3, or higher).The reasons for selecting the above criteria were twofold, in that I wanted to ensure that most of the runners to be analysed would have sufficient experience over fences to facilitate a fairly accurate profile based on the Racing Post Postdata criteria, whilst also ensuring that the better quality horses were more likely to perform consistently and therefore run to form.With regard to the selection process for identifying potentially value wagers, more detailed analysis of the data that I collated during 2016, which was used to write the original article indicated that it was most profitable to concentrate on the two VALUE CALCULATOR qualifiers which were available to back at the shortest odds in each race.

Results Achieved

Armed with the above criteria, I undertook the VALUE CALCULATOR analysis of 58 races on the evening prior to each race and having identified the top 2 qualifiers in the betting market at around 9.00 pm each evening, I placed a small stake win bet on each at the best odds available with the appropriate bookmaker (as indicated on Oddschecker), ensuring that all of the bets were struck with the best odds guaranteed concession.The results achieved during this period were as follows:

RACES: 58
SELECTIONS: 106
WINNERS: 24
STRIKE RATE: 23%
STAKES: 106.00
RETURN: 207.12
PROFIT: 101.12
ROI: 95.40%

It should be noted that there was only one VALUE CALCULATOR qualifier in some races, whilst a few of my initial selections became non runners after my wager had been placed.The profit figure is based on the returns from the bookmakers after taking into account Rule 4 deductions in respect of non runners.

Conclusions

Although the sample size of 58 races is not massive and it could be argued that the profit figure may be the result of a few lucky wagers, rather than an indication that the VALUE CALCULATOR is an effective method for identifying value selections, I am reassured by the fact that these results were very much in line with the figures that I collated from the analysis of a further 48 races during last year.I am therefore fairly confident that the current version of the VALUE CALCULATOR provides an effective methodology for identifying value wagers in better quality handicap chases, although I will continue to monitor the situation closely, to ensure that the profits are maintained, especially as there may be a seasonal impact that I am currently not aware of.I would also mention that the application of one logical filter to the selection process mentioned above has produced an overall strike rate of 29% and an enhanced ROI of 156.24%, but I will not be sharing the details of this enhancement in this or future articles, as it is my ‘bonus' for having undertaken the analysis, although I am sure that any reader could identify the filter relatively quickly if they are prepared to use the VALUE CALCULATOR for analysing similar handicap chases, for a few months.

Further Activities

I intend to continue using the VALUE CALCULATOR to analyse better quality handicap chases over the next few months and have been posting my selections for these races in the OLBG tipping competition since the beginning of March.As mentioned earlier, I shall also post similar update articles in respect of the results of the VALUE CALCULATOR analysis for Handicap Hurdles and All Weather Flat Handicaps since I wrote the original blog.I also intend to test the effectiveness of VALUE CALCULATOR in relation to various types of flat races on turf during the forthcoming season and will provide updates, as and when appropriate.As mentioned in my initial article, there are so many potential uses of the VALUE CALCULATOR, many of which I shall probably never find the time to investigate, so if anyone feels that they have the time and enthusiasm to get involved in this project, then it would be great to hear from you, via a private message.I hope that readers have found this analysis of interest and as usual, I would welcome any comments and feedback, especially if readers have any similar ideas/methodologies for assessing value that they are happy to share.Also, if you have enjoyed this blog, please feel free to share the link on social media, with your friends and contacts who are interested in horse racing.Further articles relating to the VALUE CALCULATOR are easily accessible via the following link:VALUE CALCULATOR INDEX Finally, even if readers do not wish to undertake the VALUE CALCULATOR analysis on a regular basis, it may be worth the effort when considering maximum stakes bets, or for a bit of fun occasionally applying the process to the selections of OLBG members.Click here to view other free horse racing tips.