Comparing Premier League Ticket Prices to Stadium Attendance

EPL Attendances

Let's look at the average Premier League attendance data from the 1992/93 season to the 2023/24 campaign. We can see a marked increase from the first to the last markers in the data set and although there are peaks and troughs along the way, the jump in attendance cannot be ignored.

If you take the start point of the data (1992/93) to the current endpoint (2023/24), you will see that the average attendance has leapt from 21,125 to 39,600 – an increase of 82.5% when comparing these two figures.

Attendance, on average, has jumped more than 80% in that time. Although larger stadiums can be attributed to the rise – for example, Arsenal’s move from Highbury to the Emirates, it also shows that the product on the field of play is seemingly in high demand.

Demand increased year on year from the 1992/93 season to a whole decade later, and during that period of time, the average attendance would increase annually to generate a 67.87% leap in the space of 10 years.

While after any period of sustained increase, you are always going to find dips or the odd plateau, and this was certainly the case from 2003/04 onwards as although the general trend in attendance was pointing upwards, there were seasons where a small downturn had to be factored in.

Size of Support

Just like where stadium changes or works can help increase capacities, you have also to remember that the 20 teams in the Premier League are never the same each season. Therefore, the fluctuation of clubs in the top tier and the size of their ground/support can have a knock-on effect: 

By mapping out the data like this, we can get a better of where the increases and decreases happened season on season, and with there being 29 seasons where a direct comparison could be made, we can also tally up how frequent each outcome was:

Excluding three seasons:

• 1992/93 – First Premier League Season
• 2020/21 – Covid Season
• 2021/22 – No previous data to compare against

We can see that in 19 of the 29 comparative seasons, there was an increase in average attendance from one season to the next. Of the seasons that were counted in terms of comparison, this accounts for 65.52% – nearly two-thirds of the sample.

This highlights that, more often than not, the Premier League would see even more fans go through the turnstile in the following campaign, and on only 10 out of a possible 29 occasions, the reverse happened.

Tickets at the Ready

That in itself can be considered a good news story for the Premier League and even more so when you consider this data against the average ticket price per season:

Despite the peaks and troughs in Premier League average attendance, the same cannot be said for ticket prices. As club chairmen attempt to squeeze more and more out of supporters, this seemingly does little to turn fans away.

Of course, there is an argument to be made in regard to his being turned away or perhaps deciding to vote with their feet and although domestic supporters may have said enough is enough, the international supporters have been more than willing in terms of taking their place.

Because the ticket prices have gone up each year, there has not been a point where supporters have said enough is enough. Yes, there is the odd season-on-season decrease in average attendance, but this goes back to differing clubs and size of support.

For example, if you look at the three-season period from 2021/22 to 2023/24, you will see that the average attendance climbed from 39,600 to 40,236 between 2021/22 and 2022/23 – an increase that was recorded even though the average ticket price increased by £3.50.

Fast forward to the comparison between 2022/23 and 2023/24, and the average attendance has dropped from 40,236 to 38,562, but the average ticket price has jumped up another £3 from £80 to £83.

With Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton replacing Leicester, Leeds and Southampton last season, three sizeable fanbases were replaced by three smaller support bases, which was an important reason for an average attendance decrease of 4.16%.

The Elastic Snaps

At the same time, it could also be argued that this is where price elasticity is starting to stretch and with another ticket price anticipated across the 2024/25 season, it will be interesting to see what effect this has on the league attendance considering a near exact swap of the six teams above.

Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton, now being replaced by Leicester, Ipswich, and Southampton, suggest that the average attendance could be back towards the 40,000 mark regardless of whether the average ticket price increases again to £85 or more.

But at what stage is enough finally enough for even those who save every penny in their bid to watch Premier League football when we measure the average attendance increase against the ticket price increase from 1992 to 2024, there is a remarkable difference

Whereas the average attendance has increased by 82.5%, the cost of an average ticket has increased by 514.8% - more than a five-fold rise since Brian Deane scored the competition’s first-ever goal in 1992 at Bramall Lane.

If you were to apply the 82.5% rise to ticket prices from 1992 to 2024, an average ticket price for the 2023/24 season would have been £24.64 rather than £83. Although inflation does have to be considered during this period, the inflation of ticket price has outstripped attendance.

This also begs the question of the maximum price elasticity when it comes to Premier League tickets. Using historical data, we calculated that if ticket prices rise from £83 (2023/24) to £85, this represents a 2.41% increase.

Then when using this average price rise, we must also assuming attendance drops from 38,562 to 37,500 in response to this, this is a 2.75% decrease – even with ‘bigger’ teams back in the Premier League.

The resulting price elasticity of demand (PED) is approximately -1.14, indicating demand is slightly elastic in this price range. This means that a 1% increase in ticket prices could lead to a greater than 1% decrease in attendance.

The elasticity suggests that further price hikes might significantly impact attendance, especially with higher prices. Contributing factors include affordability constraints, such as ticket costs continuing to outpace income growth.

Not only that, but the availability of substitutes in the form of televised matches may hamper average attendance as broadcasters have to balance televisual demands against matchday attendees, and a potential saturation point could also see casual fans opt out of attending.

They often say the Premier League bubble will burst. Still, it has defied any financial logic across the 32 years as it goes from strength to strength in terms of its viewing appeal but you do have to wonder just how much longer fans can keep paying over the odds before they decide to stay home.

SOURCES

https://www.european-football-statistics.co.uk/attn/nav/attnengleague.htm        

https://www.sportcal.com/analyst-comment/the-rising-cost-of-premier-league-fandom-as-shirt-and-ticket-prices-continue-to-soar/?cf-view                                                            

https://ticket-compare.com/premier-league-ticket-prices-by-club/