Exploring the Goals to Points Ratio in Premier League - What It Reveals About Team Efficiency

For as long as league football has existed, points have always meant prizes and although the collection of these has been the truest metric in terms of annual success, points alone do not tell the full story.

Because at its most basic form, football matches need goals to find a winner and the more that are won, the greater chance that progress up the table continues. While with goals in mind, that is going to be the topic of our latest data-driven article for consideration as to how to approach your bets with bookmakers.

With goals scored or goal difference being a constant talking point when discussing the league tables and consideration for many football tipsters, there is one factor that rarely gets a mention and although it has no overall bearing on positions up and down the ladder, it is still worth highlighting all the same.

If only because, we can then start to get a better idea of a team’s effectiveness in front of goal and to do that, we can look at the goals to points ratio of each Premier League outfit – a metric that is simple as dividing the former over the latter.

A simple equation but a whole lot of complex findings to follow and by carrying out this calculation, we can now look at the current goals to points ratio at the end of the 2023/24 season

One thing that first springs to mind here, is that there is a very strong correlation between one goal and one point and when you consider that the average goals per game for this season is 2.85 (the highest average of all time), this insight stands to reason.

This means we now also have a benchmark to work towards and if a ratio of 1.00 is the line in the sand, we can highlight which of the current Premier League crops operate above or below this particular number.

Here we will see that of the teams that finished in the top six of the table, four finished with a ratio of 1.00 or more. The only two teams that did not hit this benchmark were Liverpool and Aston Villa who finished in third and fourth respectively.

Of course, the variance away from 1.00 is not substantial in terms of the top six, but it is still interesting to see that points are accrued at a slightly faster rate than they are goals. This means the volume of goals is not necessarily the difference-maker.

When we look at the bottom end of the Premier League table, it is interesting to see that the goals to points ratio of four of the five lowest-finishing teams all ended with a ratio of more than 1.00 – something that can be explained by goals being slightly easier to find then points.

SOME ADDITIONAL CONTEXT

Even though the calculation of goals to points will offer some significant insight, listing these in the current order of the Premier League table will muddy the picture slightly and the best way to clear this up, is to rank the ratios from highest to lowest.

In addition to this, we could also offer a hypothesis: “Do clubs towards the top of the Premier League, have the highest goals to points ratio?”

This means if we aim to answer the above hypothesis, you can see that is clearly not the case and the three teams with the highest ratios also find themselves preparing for life in the EFL Championship’s 2024/25 edition.

Again, this can be explained by teams scoring a goal when they lose or less than three goals when they win. Whatever they are doing in terms of scoring output, it is not at the same pace as their collection of points.

While the highest of the big six clubs is Chelsea and with them currently possessing the seventh highest goals to points ratio, they are the only team that can point to regularly winning but also scoring three goals in the process – albeit only just when looking at their ill-fated spell under Mauricio Pochettino.

You need to go to sixteenth in the list to find champions Manchester City, with a goals to points ratio of 1.05 and just as they pipped Arsenal to the title in the end, they also pip the Gunners in terms of ratio, as they are only at 1.02 by comparison.

At the very end of the spectrum, Manchester United’s season was relatively successful with the FA Cup once again in their possession, but they also possessed a goals to points ratio of 0.95 and that is something that Erik ten Hag may need to improve next time around.

ON THE FLIPSIDE

Which is also something to take into consideration when you look at the other teams in the bottom eight of the ratio rank and here is the ideal opportunity to ask ourselves another hypothesis: “Do clubs towards the top of the Premier League have the lowest goals-against to point ratio?”

Here if we were to answer the second hypothesis, it is clear to see that defence arguably has more value than attack and the top five finishing teams in the Premier League, also have the five lowest goals-against to points ratios this season.

Not only that but the three teams that found themselves relegated from the division, also have the highest goals against to points ratio. Each of the trio have a ratio of 3.00 or more and that is always a number that indicates a visit to the second tier, while things are even worse when you look at Sheffield United and their eye-watering ratio of 6.50.

Another thing to consider here is that there is a far greater correlation between the current league position and goals against ratio rank. Here we can see that the top five find themselves in the top five positions and were it not for Manchester City and Arsenal being swapped around there would be a direct match, while the bottom three are in the relegation places of the table above.

Therefore, we can say with confidence, that a strong defence will go a long way to helping clubs move up the table and of course, the opposite can be said for those outfits that have been rather porous at the back.

Not to mention, there is a far greater variance in the actual ratios themselves and when looking at goals scored above. the benchmark was either side of 1.00. Now though, we can see that if you are not in the top ten, you have an average of more than two goal against per point.

How can we explain this? Quite simply actually and if you consider that teams outside the top ten will lose more often than those inside it, you must always concede at least one goal before you are denied victory.

CONCLUSION

Although goals have an incredible amount of value every week, a solid defence will push you toward winning the league title. While if you concede too many, relegation will be ready to stare you in the face.

There may be little in the way of correlation when it comes to goals versus points, but the same cannot be said for goals against and with defence being the best form of attack at times, it is also a shortcut to success at the end of the season.