Betting Insights on Over/Under Rounds in World Title Boxing

Over or Under Rounds at World Title Level

Professional boxing ranks amongst the most popular sports to bet on, which is no surprise to followers of the noble art. The heavyweight division, in particular, is competitive, unpredictable, and fast-paced, making it perfect for making predictions and getting on with your bookmaker. 

Like all sports betting, the more research you do, the greater your chance of finding a winner. Dozens of pre-fight and in-play markets are attached to the top bouts and fighters, including Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk. Often there are very short odds in choosing an outright winner so punters will look to other available markets, one of the most appealing being the over/under rounds. The traders will choose a round or a spread of rounds, and you’re tasked with predicting if the fight will last fewer or more than the quoted rounds. 

The most likely over-under figures you will find will be Over/Under 6.5, 7.5 or 8.5 rounds

How does Under/Over betting work in Boxing?

You have to call whether the fight will finish before (under) or after (over) a certain round. You can choose which round you are betting on, if you choose an earlier or later round the odds on offer will have a greater difference between the outcomes as one bet will include far more rounds and one bet will include far fewer rounds. If you pick a round nearer the middle of the fight (should it go the distance) the odds on either side of the bet will be more even.

ALSO READ

Master the Art of Boxing Betting: Expert Advice and Strategies

Most Recent Heavyweight Title Fights and Outcome

So let's take a quick look in table form of four heavyweight champs and the round in which their last five title fights finished - Now of course, we have results here which pertain to each other with these fighters, but you get the sense anyway.

As you can see, with the exception of two outcomes in the table all fights went over 7 rounds. The exceptions are Wilder's 1st Round win against Dominic Breazeale in New York and Tysons' 6th round TKO over Dillian Whyte.

Fury's last five title fights

Tyson Fury is the most popular of the recent world heavyweight champions. He has endured a challenging career, with call-offs and fights not going through as planned. But does a fighter change his approach as he ages, or becomes more defensive-minded when his hard-earned title is on the line? 

Let’s look back at Fury’s last five title fights, looking for a pattern or trend in the results.

🥊 Fury v Chisora 03.12.2022

Another domestic dust-up ended in a stoppage win for the champion, with Fury scoring a TKO in round 10. The Gypsy King dominated before putting WAR Chisora out of his misery near the end.

🥊 Fury v Whyte 23.04.2022

An all-British contest at Wembley Stadium was cut short when Fury scored a stunning sixth-round stoppage. That was the earliest Fury had beaten an opponent since the summer of 2019, but he made light work of the Body Snatcher.

🥊 Fury v Wilder 09.10.2021

The third and final installment of the trilogy helped put the rivalry to bed, with Fury winning again, claiming an 11th-round stoppage. There were five knockdowns for both fighters, but the bout almost went the distance.

🥊 Fury v Wilder 22.02.2020

The hotly anticipated rematch saw Fury continue winning and capture the WBC championship. The Englishman won that fight in round seven after dropping his opponent in the earlier rounds. It was a dominant display from the Gypsy King, without rushing his work.

🥊 Fury v Wilder 01.12.2018

Fury fought Deontay Wilder first in Los Angeles in a bout that ended level after 12 rounds. It was a highly controversial split decision, but only after Fury had been knocked to the canvas twice in the later rounds to help level the scores. A 12-round contest that swung back and forth at the Staples Center.

In the 33 wins that Fury has recorded to date, nine of them have gone the distance - 27.27% 

In each of the 33 wins, a total of 328 rounds were scheduled. The current WBC heavyweight champion needed 208 to record all those wins - an efficiency rating of 63.41% 

ALSO READ

Heavyweight Boxing Betting Picks & Strategies

Usyk’s heavyweight title fights

Oleksandr Usyk is a dominant heavyweight champion, taking the belt from Anthony Joshua. He is a former cruiserweight world champion and hasn’t been around the top division too long. Let’s look at the results of his heavyweight title fights.

🥊 Usyk v Joshua 20.08.2022

The rematch went as expected, with Usyk defending his titles in Saudi Arabia, again on the scorecards. That was a split-decision win, but that seemed rather kind on AJ. Usyk is a punch-perfect fighter, and we expect him to bide his time at championship level, knowing how dangerous heavyweight boxing can be.

🥊 Usyk v Joshua 25.09.2021

Ukrainian fighter Oleksandr Usyk won the heavyweight title at Wembley by beating AJ on points. The fight went all 12 rounds but was a one-sided contest. Usyk is a man that likes to take his time.

🥊 Usyk v Derek Chisora 31.10.2020

Not a world title fight on this occasion but inter-continental, he couldn't dispatch Chisor, with the fight going the full distance with a unanimous decision in Usyk's favour

🥊 Usyk v Tony Bellew 10.11.2018

We dive back to 2018 and a cruiserweight retention against Tony Bellew here where Usyk still required the eighth round to KO the brit in Manchester, another fight going over the half way stage

🥊 Usyk v Murat Gassiev 21.7.2018

And another fight going all the way at cruiserweight for the future heavyweight champ Usyk ans he was taken the distance by the Russian-Armenian

Across all fights, Usyk has a record of 20-0. Perfection in the ring and of those 20 wins, no less than seven have gone the distance (35%). Those 20 fights have a scheduled total of 214 rounds, the Ukrainian has needed 168 to get the job done - an efficiency rating of 78.50%

When making predictions on Usyk’s future bouts, remember he hasn’t scored an early knockout since 2015.

ALSO READ

A Betting Guide to the Boxing Heavyweight Division

Anthony Joshua last three

As we see above AJ lost his titles to Usyk, and despite a near-80% knockout ratio, the Londoner hasn’t scored an early knockout since December 2016. Before running into Usyk and losing his belts, AJ was knocked out in seven rounds by Andy Ruiz Jr, scored a revenge points win over The Destroyer, and stopped Kubrat Pulev in round nine. 

Previous to those fights we can see

🥊 Joshua v Kubrat Pulev 12.12.2020

A 9th round KO was way past the halfway mark in under/over betting as the Londoner went 24 -1 with his record

🥊 Joshua v Andy Ruiz Jr. 7.12.2019

The rematch with Ruiz went the full distance with Joshua unable to return the favour of the previous fight when he lost the belt. a 12 round UD was enough to get his belt back

🥊 Joshua v Andy Ruiz Jr. 1.6.2019

The first fight with Ruiz and the [some might say] shock 7th round defeat was still a fight that went beyond the half way stage, rewarding those punters sticking with the overs bet - Thos looking for wider marks in the bet could have got good value for under 8.5 here.

Joshua is a big hitter, but he’s another name in the heavyweight division that values patience. We were reminded of that when he recently beat Robert Helenius in round seven at the O2 Arena.

ALSO READ

Boxing Promoters of the UK: Inspired by Legendary Champions

Deontay Wilder last three

The Bronze Bomber Deontay Wilder held the WBC strap until losing twice to Fury. In his three most recent title fights not involving the Gypsy King, Wilder beat Luis Ortiz in seven, Dominic Breazeale inside a round, and Ortiz in round 10. 

Wilder boasts a 91% KO average, but three of his last four have lasted at least seven rounds. If he comes back into the picture and is determined to be a force in the heavyweight division again, don’t be surprised to see Deontay use his skills, ringcraft, and almighty power. He still has plenty to offer.

Contenders

It’s not only the heavyweight champions adopting a more tactical approach to fights and to prove that we scan the recent results of upcoming contenders and future challengers.

Andy Ruiz’s last three fights have all been decided on the scorecards. Croatian Filip Hrgovic is approaching a title shot, and his last two wins have been on points. Joe Parker needs an impressive win to throw his name back into the mix. The New Zealander won a non-title fight in round one last time, but the five fights before went to points.

When betting on the next big heavyweight contest, the stats suggest ignoring the hype and sticking to the trends. Don’t get sucked in by the drama of the press conferences when both fighters promise to score huge KO wins. The numbers show the top fighters don’t rush in.

And to add a bit more context to that point, we can list the current top 10 heavyweights in terms of their finishing efficiency (lowest = best) 

As you can see, it is Daniel Dubois who is wasting no time at all. A 19-1 record has seen a total of 186 scheduled rounds from those 20 fights. He only needed 53 rounds to pick up each of his victories - only 28.49% of all rounds scheduled.

Hot on his heels is Deontay Wilder. Bruised and battered after the Tyson Fury trilogy, a total of 46 career fights have seen a very impressive 43 wins. 360 fight rounds scheduled. 133 required - an efficiency of 36.94%. 

Anthony Joshua was mentioned before and now it is time to take a look at his numbers. The 2012 Olympic winner had contested 28 fights at the time of data collection (Robert Helenius win not included) and 25 were victories. 240 rounds on the board, 117 needed at 48.75% efficiency.

Four of the top-10 ranked heavyweights needed less than 50% of their rounds to get the wins recorded, the fourth of this hard hitting quartet is none other than Luis Ortiz. His 300 scheduled rounds were whittled down to 148 and an efficiency rating of 49.33%

Compare these four to the other end of the scale and Oleksandr Usyk certainly takes his time with an efficiency rating of 78.50%. With that said, he is unbeaten and maybe it does pay to take your time. 

Methodology

Win data recorded from individual fight records on Wikipedia

Top 10 heavyweights taken from boxrec.com

About the Author

Our Data Scientist Dan Tracey collected the stats and data for this article, and Frank Monkhouse our In-house Boxing expert and former professional boxer fighting at middleweight now turned sports betting writer supplying content for a range of outlets including Betfair, Coral, William Hill, World Sports Network and The Racing Post, wrote the words. All images are credited to sources and no copyright infringement is intended.

We are proud to have Frank Monkhouse on our expert teams at OLBG, maintaining our relationship since sponsoring him when he was fighting professionally, and now he delivers us top-notch boxing and fighting sport content for the OLBG pages.

Frank Monkhouse

Boxing editor

Frank Monkhouse is a former professional boxer fighting at middleweight now turned sports betting writer supplying content from knockout-content for a range of outlets including Betfair, Coral, William Hill, World Sports Network and The Racing Post and proudly as the Boxing Betting Expert on OLBG. 

👨‍🏫 Specialist Subjects🔬📚

It is no surprise to find Frankie is our Boxing expert, although he has a deep catalogue of work in regards to football previews as Rangers fan. Frankie has written preview for boxing events as well as working on some deep data driven boxing content for us too.

OLBG Boxing Interviews

ALSO READ

Tom Aspinall Exclusive Interviews with OLBG

ALSO READ

Carl Froch - Exclusive Interview with OLBG

ALSO READ

Anthony Taylor - Exclusive Interview with OLBG

ALSO READ

Zab Judah - Explosive Interview with OLBG