MLB Preview & Betting Guide

2024 MLB Season Preview

The 2024 MLB regular season will start on Thursday the 28th of March 2024 and run through to the 29th of September, this season will include the 94th All-Star Game which this year will take place at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, home of the Texas Rangers and is scheduled to take place on the 16th of July.

After a host of changes last season, there are no significant changes planned for 2024. This season looks set to be the last season of the Oakland Athletics with plans to move the franchise to Las Vegas pending approval from other MLB owners.

Significant anniversaries this season include the 70th season of the Baltimore Orioles, the 20th anniversary of the Phillies playing at Citizens Bank Park and the 20th anniversary of the Padres playing at Petco Park.

MLB General Manager Changes for 2024

• Chris Getz replaces Rick Hahn (White Sox)
• Peter Bendix replaces Kim Ng (Marlins)
• Craig Breslow replaces Brian O'Halloran (Red Sox)
• David Stearns replaces Billy Eppler (Mets)
• Vacant (Rays)

MLB Field Manager Changes for 2024

• Bob Melvin replaces Gabe Kapler (Giants)
• Carlos Mendoza replaces Buck Showalter (Mets)
• Ron Washington replaces Phil Nevin (Angels)
• Stephen Vogt replaces Terry Francona (Guardians)
• Craig Counsell replaces David Ross (Cubs)
• Mike Shildt replaces Bob Melvin (Padres)
• Joe Espada replaces Dusty Baker (Astros)
• Pat Murphy replaces Craig Counsell (Brewers)

Why not head over to the dedicated MLB predictions page to see which team the OLBG tipsters are tipping to win the World Series? Bookmark that page for tips on the MLB all season long too or head over to the best baseball tipsters to see what the profitable tipsters are backing each week.

MLB World Series 2024 11 Apr @ 12:06 - Win Tournament
LA Dodgers	4.20
ATL Braves	5.50
NY Yankees	9.00
HOU Astros	12.00
TEX Rangers	12.00
BAL Orioles	15.00
PHI Phillies	15.00
TOR Blue Jays	23.00
TB Rays	31.00
STL Cardinals	31.00

Where is the MLB All-Star Game 2024? The 2024 MLB All-Star game has been given a date of July 18th for the 2024 season, this will be the 94th All-Star game, a game where the best of the best from the American League (AL) take on the best of the best from the National League (NL), the game will take place at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, the home of the Texas Rangers.

When does the 2024 World Series Start? The World Series is scheduled to start after the regular season is completed on the 1st of October 2024.

2023 World Series Recap

Who Won the World Series? The Texas Rangers went into the postseason in 2023 a team in form, they finished the regular season by winning eight of their final twelve games and finished with an identical 90-72 record as the Astros with the Astros clinching the AL West due to their head-to-head record over the Rangers during the season. They headed into the postseason as the fifth seed which set up a wild card series with the fourth seed Rays and despite having to play on the road they won both games (4-0 & 7-1) to advance to the division series.

There they came up against the number one seed, the Orioles who had had a fantastic season, the only team in the American League to record 100+ regular season wins (101-61), however, in a best-of-five series, the Rangers made easy work of them, winning both games in Baltimore (3-2 & 11-8) before sealing a whitewash at home with a 7-1 victory to wrap up the series 3-0.

They went into the ALCS on the back of a 5-0 record in the postseason and would face the Astros, they went to Houston to win the opening two games (2-0 & 5-4) to open up a 2-0 series lead and make it 7-0 in post-season! However, they were brought back to earth with the Astros winning the next three all in Texas but this seemed to be a series for the road team as returning to Houston, the Rangers won both games (9-2 & 11-4) to wrap the series 4-3 and head to their first World Series since 2011.

In the World Series, they came up against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the sixth-seed team from the National League who like the Rangers had probably been overachieving. The Rangers got off to a good start with a 6-5 win at home but a day later, still in Texas, the D-Backs tied the series up with a 9-1 victory. The teams headed to Arizona all tied up but this remarkable road form continued, the Ranger won three on the bounce (3-1, 11-7 & 5-0) to win the series 4-1 and win their first-ever World Series and the road form was the reason why, they went 11-0 on the road in post-season!

Past World Series Winners

Below are the last ten winners of the World Series:

Which League has produced the most World Series Wins?

Since 1903, there has been a total of one hundred and nineteen world series, there was no World Series in 1904 and again due to players striking nothing in 1994 and it is the American League who holds the upper hand with sixty-eight World Series wins compared to the fifty-one from the National League.

In more recent times it has been much closer, since 2000, twelve of the twenty-four have gone to National League sides with the other twelve going to the American League side so there has not been a great deal between them in recent years.

Who are the most successful team in the World Series?

The New York Yankees have made a total of forty World Series appearances, their first coming in 1921 when they lost 5-3 to the Giants, a year later it was much of the same, being beaten 4-0 by the Giants in the world series but they got their revenge a year later when winning their maiden title in 1923 beating the Giants 4-2. They have now notched up a total of twenty-seven World Series wins, which is sixteen more than anyone else, they have also lost thirteen times meaning they have a  67.5% win rate when making the World Series but their last success was in 2009 and that is the only world series they have made since 2004.

The St. Louis Cardinals are next on the list but that is still some sixteen wins less than the Yankees, they have picked up a total of eleven wins from nineteen World Series appearances, and they have placed in four since 2004, they lost in 2004 but won it in both 2006 & 2011 but were again beaten in 2013 so in terms of win percentage in the world series, despite winning eleven their win percentage of .57.9% is the worst of the top four teams to win the world series as the Athletics are 64.3% (9 wins & 5 defeats) and the Red Sox are 69.2% (9 wins & 4 defeats).

At the other end of the spectrum, the 2020 winners, the LA Dodgers are one of the unluckiest when it comes to the World Series, they have appeared in twenty-one, and their 2020 success with the seventh World Series win means they have lost fourteen times, their win percentage, therefore, is only 33.3%!

How to Be Successful at MLB Betting

One way is to follow the statistics, Long-term term statistics can be great guidance when picking out your MLB bets, however, statistics can only tell you one thing so it is also always worth considering factors like which Umpires are taking charge of the game. If you are looking to back the game totals then always look at the Weather, the strength of the wind can play a big factor for this market, look for the wind strength and if it is anything over 4 mph then the under total would be more preferable is blowing towards home base if it is blowing away from the home base then overs would certainly come into play.

When it comes to statistics, you can look at things like teams who perform at home, for the five seasons between 2019-23 there are a total of seventeen teams who have a win percentage of under 60% when a home favourite, ideally, you would want a better outcome than that, the best-performing team at home are the 2020 World Series winners, the LA Dodgers who have a record of 247-101 which is a win percentage of 71.0% and the shorter priced they go, the higher the percentage rise which is what you would expect. It's all about finding the right balance between success bets and value odds, backing them each time they were 1.80 or shorter over the five seasons would have seen a 71.1% success rate, however backing them at 1.50 or shorter that rises to 75.5% and as you would expect as the odds get shorter and shorter the success rate rises.

• Los Angeles Dodgers at home @ 1.8 or shorter 243-99 (.711)
• Los Angeles Dodgers at home @ 1.7 or shorter 232-90 (.720)
• Los Angeles Dodgers at home @ 1.6 or shorter 187-71 (.725)
• Los Angeles Dodgers at home @ 1.5 or shorter 142-46 (.755)
• Los Angeles Dodgers at home @ 1.4 or shorter 82-29 (.739)

Another couple of teams with a good set of figures over the timespan are the Tampa Bay Ray, who have a home record of 199-102 (.661) when favourites and also the Houston Astros whose record is 216-117 (.649), those two teams along with the Dodgers are the only three teams over the last five years to have a success rate of 64.9% or better when favourites at home.

There are only two teams who when on the road when favourites have a win rate of 67.5% or better which when you consider they are on the road is a very good return, those teams are the Pittsburgh Pirates who rank best with their 11-4 (.733) record and the Detroit Tigers who are 19-9 (.67.9) whilst the team to avoid on the road when favourites are the surprisingly the 2023 World Series champions, the Texas Rangers who have a poor 37-42 (.468) record.

Backing the Underdog

If you can find yourself an underdog angle to bet on which is successful then that is one of the most profitable ways to go about things, an underdog is a team that is the bigger of the odds, meaning they are not favourites to win the game so finding an angle is difficult because they are not fancied to win. The value is mostly going to come when teams are playing away from home, however, the Braves at home are worth a mention, between 2019 and 2023 they were underdogs in 33 games at home, and their record was 17-16 (.515) so a winning percentage, there were only two other teams with a winning percentage at home as underdogs over the same period, the Cardinals (.514) and the Rays (.510) being the other two. Also worth noting are the Rockies who show a profit of +19.37 when underdog at home despite a losing record (102-117).

There is not a single winning team when it comes to underdogs being away from home, the closest is the Bewers with their 81-81 (.500) record, they show a profit with an ROI of 9.96% which is one of the better records of the teams, there are in total nine teams who show a profit over the past five seasons when they have been underdogs on the road.

Here are the profitable teams on the road when underdogs based on ROI:

• 9.96% - Milwaukee Brewers
• 5.88% - Tampa Bay Rays
• 5.46% - San Francisco Giants
• 5.25% - Baltimore Orioles
• 4.18% - Washington Nationals
• 2.97% - Cleveland Guardians
• 2.59% - Cincinnati Reds
• 1.19% - New York Yankees
• 0.24% - Seattle Mariners

Are teams successful by Month?

The question here is, Can teams be more successful at certain times of the season compared to others? The simple answer is yes based on statistics but we also have to remember there are other factors, did a team have a top player on the injured list during certain months, did they spend more time on the road in one month compared to another, did that team get horrible weather and so on meaning whilst the statistics offer one angle, we have to remember the other factors.

For example, the Pirates tend to start the season well with a .526 win record in April over the past five seasons, however, they seem to struggle to retain their form into May as their win rate drops dramatically to .391 and doesn't go back above 0.500 for the remainder of the regular season.

Both the Astros and Yankees have consistent records, the lowest that the Astros drop to is .554 in September whilst the Yankees do tend to have a stronger first half of the season compared to the second half, however, their lowest is still only .524 which is in July.

The Royals don't tend to have great seasons but are worth watching late in the regular season as their best win rate comes in the final month of September.

Below is a table of the best-performing and worst-performing teams for each month of the season, what will be interesting is how the OLBG baseball tipsters support or oppose these teams during those months mentioned, remember to head over to the baseball picks to see those predictions.

Teams to follow and oppose each month based on ROI

*Statistics used in this blog are based on game results and odds history available on BetExplorer.