Horse Racing stats man, Andy has contributed to OLBG for 18 years - An Ipswich fan and F1 fanatic, he also contributes EFL football and Motor Sport opinion.
The Fate of Favourites
Many punters think that most short-priced favourites are good things and a lot of odds-ons are near certainties.
Every punter has a different view on short-priced favourites and some rarely back short-priced favourites on their own but occasionally do them in doubles and/or trebles.
For many, it means they can find a better-priced horse that they think can pay the same odds for a place.
Looking back at the results from the Cheltenham Festival since 2015, the list below shows us how every short-priced favourite faired in their particular race.
When we talk about "Shorties" we are talking about those who were sent off as the outright favourite with an SP at under 2/1.
Essential Guide To The Cheltenham Festival 2025
The Overall Numbers
Looking back over the past ten festivals, the outright favourites have a strike rate of 31.40% with 81 winners out of 258 runners.
When looking at the 'shorties' priced under 2/1, that number increases to 50.52% with 49 winners from 97 runners.
Going one step further and looking at the odds-on favourites, the win rate doesn't go up much further, only to 54.35% (25-46) which isn't great.
2024 Favourite Results
Outright favourites had a 31% strike rate in 2024, from 26 races we saw a total of 8 of the favourites going to win.
It was a bumper year for odds-on shots, we saw 7 of them with 6 of those from the Willie Mullins yard, 5 of his went on to win, the only one defeated was another odds-on shot defeat in the Champion Chase.
| Champion Hurdle | State Man (FR) 1/8 (1.4) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
| Mares Hurdle | Lossiemouth (FR) 1/11 (1.62) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
| Gallagher Novices Hurdle | Ballyburn (IRE) 1/7 (1.5) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
| Brown Advisory Novices Chase | Fact To File (FR) 1/6 (1.62) | Mullins, W P Walsh, M P |
| Champion Chase | El Fabiolo (FR) PU/6 (1.22) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
| Mares Novices Hurdle | Brighterdaysahead (FR) 2/8 (1.83) | Elliott, Gordon Kennedy, J W |
| Cheltenham Gold Cup | Galopin Des Champs (FR) 1/11 (1.91) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
Cheltenham Festival Best Trainers
2023 Favourite Results
Two of the three odds-on favourites won in 2023 with both Gaillard Du Mesnil and Constitution Hill winning at odd-on however, Might Potter was a beaten favourite in the Turners' Novices Chase only finishing third.
Overall at the 2023 festival, the outright favourites won 7 of the 25 races in which there was an outright favourite, a strike rate of 28% and an LSP of -10.57.
| Turners Novices Chase | Mighty Potter (FR) 3/7 (1.67) | Elliott, Gordon Russell, D N |
| National Hunt Challenge Cup | Gaillard Du Mesnil (FR) 1/10 (1.91) | Mullins, W P Mullins, Mr P W |
| Champion Hurdle | Constitution Hill 1/7 (1.36) | Henderson, N J Boinville, Nico |
Cheltenham Festival Best Jockeys
2022 Favourite Results
Not the best of times in 2022 for the odds-on favourites with only three of the five being successful, both Galopin Des Champs and Shishkin failed to finish their races.
There were a total of 25 races which had an outright favourite, from those 11 (44%) went on to win their races for an LSP of +6.04.
| Ryanair Chase | Allaho (FR) 1/7 (1.57) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
| Turners Novices Chase | Galopin Des Champs (FR) F/4 (1.83) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
| Champion Chase | Shishkin (IRE) PU/7 (1.83) | Henderson, N J Boinville, Nico |
| Ballymore Novices Hurdle | Sir Gerhard (IRE) 1/9 (1.73) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
| Champion Hurdle | Honeysuckle 1/10 (1.73) | Bromhead, Henry De Blackmore, Rachael |
Cheltenham Festival Handicap Pointers
2021 Favourite Results
Plenty of odds-on shots in 2021, however, it wasn't a good year for them with more losing than winning! Envoi Allen, Kilcruit, Chacun Pour Soi & Concertista were all sent off at odds-on and all failed to win their races.
Favourites overall didn't have the best of times in 2021, all 28 races had an outright favourite but only 8 of those went on to win (29%) for an LSP of -7.73.
| Marsh Novices Chase | Envoi Allen (FR) F/8 (1.44) | Bromhead, Henry De Kennedy, J W |
| Champion Bumper | Kilcruit (IRE) 2/14 (1.91) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
| Champion Chase | Chacun Pour Soi (FR) 3/9 (1.62) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
| Brown Advisory Novices Chase | Monkfish (IRE) 1/6 (1.25) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
| Mares Hurdle | Concertista (FR) 2/10 (1.91) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
| Arkle Chase | Shishkin (IRE) 1/5 (1.44) | Henderson, N J Boinville, Nico |
| Supreme Novices Hurdle | Appreciate It (IRE) 1/8 (1.73) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
Cheltenham Novice Hurdlers Breeding & Pedigree Guide
2020 Favourite Results
The 2020 Cheltenham Festival was a year to forget for the odds-on favourites, it was a bookies festival so to speak with five of the six odds-on favourites beaten, the only success came from Envoi Allen.
23 of the 28 races so an outright favourite and 7 of those races were won by that runner, a 30% strike rate for an LSP of +7.23.
| Stayers Hurdle | Paisley Park (IRE) 7/15 (1.67) | Lavelle, Miss E C Coleman, A |
| Cross Country Chase | Tiger Roll (IRE) 2/14 (1.73) | Elliott, Gordon Donoghue, K M |
| Champion Chase | Defi Du Seuil (FR) 4/5 (1.40) | Hobbs, P J / White, J Geraghty, B J |
| Ballymore Novices Hurdle | Envoi Allen (FR) 1/12 (1.57) | Elliott, Gordon Russell, D N |
| National Hunt Challenge Cup | Carefully Selected (IRE) UR/14 (1.91) | Mullins, W P Mullins, Mr P W |
| Mares Hurdle | Benie Des Dieux (FR) 2/9 (1.67) | Mullins, W P Townend, P |
Lookout Cheltenham, the Irish are Coming!!
Schedule for Tuesday at the Cheltenham Festival
Prepare for the ROAR of the Cheltenham Festival on the opening day when the tape goes up for the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the feature on Tuesday is the Champion Hurdle.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:30 Cheltenham Supreme Novices Hurdle | Slade Steel (IRE) 6yo - 7/2 | Henry De Bromhead Rachael Blackmore |
| 14:10 Cheltenham Arkle Challenge Trophy | Gaelic Warrior (GER) 6yo - 2/1 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 14:50 Cheltenham Ultima Handicap Chase | Chianti Classico (IRE) 7yo - 6/1 | Kim Bailey David Bass |
| 15:30 Cheltenham Champion Hurdle | State Man (FR) 7yo - 2/5 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 16:10 Cheltenham Close Brothers Mares Hurdle | Lossiemouth (FR) 5yo - 8/13 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 16:50 Cheltenham Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle | Lark In The Mornin (GER) 4yo - 9/1 | Joseph Patrick O'Brien J J Slevin |
| 17:30 Cheltenham National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup | Corbetts Cross (IRE) 7yo - 15/8 | Emmet Mullins Mr Derek O'Connor |
Schedule for Wednesday at the Cheltenham Festival
The dust has settled on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival and now on to day two. The feature on the second day is the Queen Mother Champion Chase. We also have the cross country scheduled on Wednesday, a race like Marmite, some love it and some don't!
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:30 Cheltenham Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle | Ballyburn (IRE) 6yo - 1/2 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 14:10 Cheltenham Brown Advisory Novices Chase | Fact To File (FR) 7yo - 8/13 | W P Mullins Mark Walsh |
| 14:50 Cheltenham Coral Cup | Langer Dan (IRE) 8yo - 13/2 | Dan Skelton Harry Skelton |
| 15:30 Cheltenham Queen Mother Champion Chase | Captain Guinness (IRE) 9yo - 17/2 | Henry De Bromhead Rachael Blackmore |
| 16:10 Cheltenham Cross Country Chase | Delta Work (FR) 10yo - 11/10 | Gordon Elliott Keith Donoghue |
| 16:50 Cheltenham Johnny Henderson Grand Annual | Unexpected Party (FR) 9yo - 12/1 | Dan Skelton Harry Skelton |
| 17:30 Cheltenham Champion Bumper | Jasmin De Vaux (FR) 5yo - 9/2 | W P Mullins Mr P W Mullins |
Schedule for Thursday at the Cheltenham Festival
Halfway through the festival and onto day three where the Stayers Hurdle is the feature race. A hurdle race to test the stamina and see how can last best up the Cheltenham hill.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:30 Cheltenham Turners Novices Chase | Grey Dawning (IRE) 7yo - 5/2 | Dan Skelton Harry Skelton |
| 14:10 Cheltenham Pertemps Network Final | Monmiral (FR) 7yo - 25/1 | Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden |
| 14:50 Cheltenham Ryanair Chase | Protektorat (FR) 9yo - 17/2 | Dan Skelton Harry Skelton |
| 15:30 Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle | Teahupoo (FR) 7yo - 5/4 | Gordon Elliott Jack Kennedy |
| 16:10 Cheltenham Festival Plate | Shakem UpArry (IRE) 10yo - 8/1 | Ben Pauling Ben Jones |
| 16:50 Cheltenham Mares Novices Hurdle | Golden Ace (GB) 6yo - 10/1 | Jeremy Scott Lorcan Williams |
| 17:30 Cheltenham Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup | Inothewayurthinkin (IRE) 6yo - 13/8 | Gavin Cromwell Mr Derek O'Connor |
Schedule for Friday at the Cheltenham Festival
The final day of the festival and feature race that we have all been waiting for, the Cheltenham Gold Cup in which the Irish have been fairly dominant in recent years.
| Race | Last Winner | Info |
|---|---|---|
| 13:30 Cheltenham Triumph Hurdle | Majborough (FR) 4yo - 6/1 | W P Mullins Mark Walsh |
| 14:10 Cheltenham County Handicap Hurdle | Absurde (FR) 6yo - 12/1 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 14:50 Cheltenham Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle | Stellar Story (IRE) 7yo - 33/1 | Gordon Elliott Sam Ewing |
| 15:30 Cheltenham Cheltenham Gold Cup | Galopin Des Champs (FR) 8yo - 10/11 | W P Mullins Paul Townend |
| 16:10 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup | Sine Nomine (GB) 8yo - 8/1 | Fiona Needham Mr John Dawson |
| 16:50 Cheltenham Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase | Limerick Lace (IRE) 7yo - 3/1 | Gavin Cromwell Keith Donoghue |
| 17:30 Cheltenham Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle | Better Days Ahead (IRE) 6yo - 5/1 | Gordon Elliott Danny Gilligan |
Article Contributor Information
We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Cheltenham Festival - The Fate of Favourites are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for National Hunt Racing.
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