Meet Europe’s Elite: The Top 10 xG Overperformers

Top 10 European xG Outperformers

Overperformance can be measured by the value of expected goals (xG) and how they correlate against the number of goals an individual player has scored. A striker may be red-hot in the final third but how clinical they are is arguably just as important.

Especially if you are someone who likes to place anytime goal accumulator bet before the weekend’s action and when looking at the current top 10 overperformers in Europe’s top five leagues, this may offer you the perfect insight before your next bet. 

Mateo Retegui - xG Profit 8.2

Top of the list is Mateo Retegui - the man who is currently the top scorer in Serie A for Atalanta and he has this mantle after already netting 23 goals since the start of the 2024/25 season. 

Retegui has created 28 shots on target this season, converting 23 giving him a 82% hit rate when he does take a chance and with a total xG of 14.8 since the start of the campaign, it means he has in profit of just over eight goals at present.

Chris Wood - xG Profit 7.0

Second in the charts is Chris Wood and although he has always been a steady hand for a number of clubs in the top two tiers of English football, it is fair to say that the Nottingham Forest forward is seemingly in the form of his life.

The New Zealand international has scored 18 goals in the Premier League as Forest have made a remarkable start to proceedings - especially after just avoiding relegation last time around and are now in the mix for the Champions League places. At a total xG of 11 for the season so far, it means Wood has a profit of 7.0 at present.

Matheus Cunha - xG Profit 6.7

Another Premier League player can be found in third place and this is the current standing for Matheus Cunha and although Wolves may be floundering towards the bottom of the Premier League table, the Brazilian has certainly been one of the club's leading lights since the start of the 2024/25 campaign.

The 25-year-old has scored 14 goals this season - including a recent strike at home to Aston Villa and with a total xG of 7.3 to date, it means the Brazilian has a profit of 6.7 goals.

Omar Marmoush – xG Profit 6.2

Sharing joint-fourth in the charts when it comes to overperformance is Omar Marmoush and although the Egyptian national team has its own king in Mohamed Salah, the now Manchester City forward is doing a great job as crown prince.

With 15 goals to his name this season, Marmoush's output at Eintracht Frankfurt xG was enough to secure him a January move to the Etihad.

Before making the switch to Germany, Marmoush scored 15 goals from just 34 shots on target and with a total xG of 8.8 it means a profit of 6.2.

Patrick Schick - xG Profit 6.2

Also sharing joint-fourth is Czech forward Patrick Schick and although he may be better known for his long range goal against Scotland at Euro 2020, the Bayer Leverkusen forward has also been a consistent thorn in Bundesliga defences throughout Germany.

The 29-year-old forward has scored 17 goals this season coming from 29 shots on target - a 58.6% strike rate and woth a total xG of 10.8, he also currently has a profit of 6.2 to his name.

Ousmane Dembele - xG Profit 6.1

Just outside of the top five is French forward Ousmane Dembele and his scoring exploits with PSG. The French giants will have been rather grateful for the 16 Ligue 1 goals that he has netted across 2024/25 and this contribution has helped Luis Enrique's men win another league crown.

The former Barcelona forward has registered a total xG of 14.9 and therefore, his current profit sits at 6.1 and with 21 goals from 43 shots on target, his strike rate is 48.83%.

Bryan Mbuemo - xG Profit 6.0

Seventh in the charts is the another Premier League represenative and it is not necessarily a name you would have predicted. The man in question is Bryan Mbuemo and he has once again been integral to Brentford's season.

The Cameroonian international has scored 16 goals in the 2024/25 campaign and is attracting the attention of clubs that find themselves higher up the Premier League food chain. 16 goals from a total of just 10.0 xG this season and an 57.14% hit rate when it comes to shots on targets versus goals.

ALSO READ

Expected Goals (xG) Betting Explained

Oihan Sancet - xG Profit 5.7

Eight in the list and highest-ranked pure midfielder is Oihan Sancet. The Athletic Club player has scored an impressive 15 goals across this season's La Liga and this comes from a total xG of 9.3, giving the 24-year-old a current profit of 5.7

Alexis Claude-Maurice - xG Profit 5.5

Sitting ninth in the list is Alexis Claude-Maurice. The 26 midfielder or forward is currently plying their trade for Augsburg and this season he has scored nine Bundesliga goals. Those nine goals have come from 18 shots on target and his 50% strike rate also goes alongside an xG profit of 5.5

Xavi Simons - xG Profit 5.1

Rounding out the top 10 is Xavi Simons and like Alexis-Claude Maurice, the RB Leipzig midfielder has also scored nine goals from 18 shots on target during this Bundesliga season. However, Simons' xG currently sits at 3.9 compared to 3.5, meaning his xG profit is at the lesser value of 5.1.