Euro 2020 The Road To The Final

My Road Map To The Euro 2020 Final

Many of you know that OLBG member Davidg3907 is a statistics guru and puts this knowledge to use to find winning football bets.

He has looked at Euro 2020 and set out a road map for the tournament.  

The objective is to trace the progress of the tournament, taking into account some of the possible upsets.

Euro 2020 Qualification

Qualification.

1.       The Group stage often throws up draws in the first round of matches as it is deemed difficult to recover from defeat in the first match. With four of the third-placed teams going through to the knockout stage, this may not be as relevant here.

2.       There is occasionally the prospect that it may be better to qualify from the group in second (even third) place rather than as the winner.

Initially, the so-called ‘Group of death’ appears to be Group F which contains Germany, France, and Portugal, along with outsiders, Hungary. 

However, on closer inspection, Group D does not have much good news in store for the winner. 

They would play the runner-up in Group F with Spain as the likely reward in the last eight. Installed as favourites to win the tournament, 

England face Croatia in their opening game. On their day, Croatia are capable of beating England, certainly able to get a draw and appear reasonable value to top this group on the basis that England may prefer to finish second.

Other groups look more straightforward with one team big favourites to get through to the knock-out stage.

Euro 2020 - The Group Stages

Group A.

• Italy should top this group but their first game is against Turkey who will not be wanting to lose. 
• Whatever the outcome, I expect Turkey to get into the last 16 as runners-up or one of the best third-place teams. 

Group B.

• It is impossible to oppose Belgium at this stage even if their record in the later stages of tournaments leaves a bit to be desired. 
• Finland lost 4 games in qualifying, two close games against Italy, and a dead rubber against Greece. 
• I feel they could spring a surprise here and at about 3.50, they may be good value in the to qualify market.

Group C.

• The Netherlands look a banker to top this group, and although North Macedonia recently beat Germany in a World Cup qualifier, that is surely not representative of a side that struggled in their group and only made it through the playoffs to get here.
• Austria tend to self-destruct, so I fancy Ukraine to make it as runners-up.

Group D

• Initially, the so-called ‘Group of death’ appears to be Group F which contains Germany, France, and Portugal, along with outsiders, Hungary. 
• However, on closer inspection, Group D does not have much good news in store for the winner. 
• They would play the runner-up in Group F with Spain as the likely reward in the last eight.
• Installed as favourites to win the tournament, England face Croatia in their opening game. 
• On their day, Croatia are capable of beating England, certainly able to get a draw and appear reasonable value to top this group on the basis that England may prefer to finish second.

Group E

• Spain can’t really afford a slow start against Sweden, but would probably get a couple of wins later if required. 
• It may be closer than expected between Spain, Sweden, and Poland. 
• I fancy all three to survive.

Group F.

• Another group where 3 teams qualifying seems the most likely outcome, with Hungary falling by the wayside.
• By now, teams in this group will know where they would prefer to finish, with avoiding England and a last 8 meeting with Spain high on the list.

Euro 2020 Round of 16

Assuming all goes to plan as far as here (he says hopefully), the draw for the last 16 may look like this.

• Turkey v Finland
• Italy v Ukraine
• Netherlands v Portugal
• Belgium v Poland
• England v Sweden
• Germany v Switzerland
• Croatia v France
• Spain v Russia

This would of course be subject to a lot of changes should England top Group D.

Euro 2020 Quarter Finals

From the above scenario, we could be looking at these quarter-finals.

• Germany v England
• Belgium v Italy
• Netherlands v Turkey
• Spain v France

Sticking my neck on the block, it appears likely that England would cross swords with Germany in either the last 16 or last 8.

Euro 2020 Semi Finals & Winner

• Belgium v Germany
• France v Netherlands

Would France retain the crown in the final against Belgium, or would the Belgians finally come good? 

A France v Belgium final has pre-tournament odds of around 25/1. 

That is my opinion I am sure you have your own.

Hopefully, we are in for a great tournament. 

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