Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites
Euro 2020 Betting
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In the last 3 European Championships favourites won just under 50% of all games.
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Draws accounted for a quarter of all games in 2008, 2012, and 2016.
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Backing the underdog would have seen you win 28 of 113 matches.
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6 of the 15 finals have gone to extra time.
On OLBG.com the members aim to place value winning football bets and tips.
These days many bets and football tips are based on statistics and data.
With this in mind, we looked at the last three UEFA Euro Football tournaments looking for surprises where the bookmakers ultimately had the wrong favourites.
- Where surprises happened.
- What bookmaker match odds were on offer.
- Which countries caused these surprises.
- Which Euro football results were a surprise.
- How many odds on teams did not win their games.
- The biggest prices on offer.
The tables show how many games were won by the favourites or underdog, and which games ended in draws.
As an example, you can see that over the three tournaments the draw accounted for a quarter of all games.
The 3/1 Odds = Percentages show that 25% is the equivalent of a price of 3/1.
If a bookmaker was to offer 10/1 for a draw then that 10/1 could be a value bet based on previous Euro football tournament results.
We also broke down the group phase results and the knockout phase results.
In the group phase sometimes not being defeated is a good result.
In the Knockout phase there is extra time and then penalties this can affect the teams willingness to go for the win in 90 minutes.
| Result | Euro 2016 | Euro 2012 | Euro 2008 | Total | Percentage Total | Odds = Percentages |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourites | 21 | 18 | 17 | 56 | 49.55% | 1/1 |
| Draw | 16 | 7 | 6 | 29 | 25.66% | 3/1 |
| Underdogs | 14 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 24.77% | 3/1 |
| Number Of Games | 51 | 31 | 31 | 113 | 100% |
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| Group Phase Result | Euro 2016 | Euro 2012 | Euro 2008 | Total | Percentage Total | Odds = Percentages |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourites | 14 | 14 | 14 | 42 | 50% | 1/1 |
| Draw | 11 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 22.61% | 7/2 |
| Underdogs | 11 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 27.38% | 5/2 |
| Number of Games | 36 | 24 | 24 | 84 | 100% |
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| Knockout Phase Results | Euro 2016 | Euro 2012 | Euro 2008 | Total | Percentage Total | Odds = Percentages |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourites | 7 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 48.27% | 11/10 |
| Draw | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 34.48% | 37/20 |
| Underdogs | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 17.24% | 5/1 |
| Number Of Games | 15 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 100% |
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Euro 2020 Bookmakers
Bookmakers price up events based on probability and the amount of money they expect to be placed on a selection.
For example, the current best football odds across a range of online bookmakers for England v Croatia at the 2020 Euros are as follows
- England 1.86 (53.76%)
- Croatia 4.75 (27.03)
- Draw 3.7 (21.05)
This equates to a book of 101.84%, remember these are cherry-picking the best footy odds, most bookmakers will be betting to between 104% and 110%.
By offering these odds the bookies will make a profit if they attract the right amount of money on all three options.
They adjust the odds as information comes into them, all the time looking to make money whatever the outcome of the match.
If Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, and Marcus Rashford are all injured you may see England become a bigger price and Croatia shorten in the betting.
That news is likely to see punters supporting Croatia in more numbers therefore the bookmaker will need to adjust his odds.
Remember bookmakers are looking to make a profit WHATEVER the outcome.
Our job as bettors is to look for Euro 2020 betting odds where the odds are more generous than the probability of that result.
Imagine in the above game if the odds looked like this.
- England 1.86 (53.76%)
- Croatia 7.0 (14.29%)
- Draw 3.7 (21.05%)
The odds indicate that the bookies feel that Croatia only has a 15% chance of winning the game, you may consider that Croatia are a much better team than the odds on offer, and you place your bet.
Ultimately win, lose or draw you have placed what you consider a value bet, if you place enough bets where the true odds are out of kilter on an event happening then your betting should become more profitable.
In the examples from the Euro Championship, we can see this in action.
In tight games, the underdog, draw, and the favourite can have very close odds, but in most cases, there is a definitive fav and underdog.
Euro Tournament Shock Results
2016
Here we look at the games in the last 3 tournaments where the underdog won the game.
| Winning Outsider | Result | Opponent | Pre Match Best Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wales | Beat | Belgium | 4.94 |
| Iceland | Beat | England | 9.1 |
| Ireland | Beat | Italy | 3.7 |
| Italy | Beat | Spain | 4.5 |
| Iceland | Beat | Austria | 3.65 |
| Croatia | Beat | Spain | 5.35 |
| Turkey | Beat | Czech Republic | 3.0 |
| Wales | Beat | Russia | 3.1 |
| Albania | Beat | Rumania | 3.85 |
| Northern Ireland | Beat | Ukraine | 6.1 |
| Slovakia | Beat | Russia | 3.35 |
| Hungary | Beat | Austria | 6.2 |
| Italy | Beat | Belgium | 3.05 |
| Wales | Beat | Slovakia | 3.1 |
2012
Fewer surprise results than in 2016 or 2008, Greece who beat Russia in the final group game eventually went on to the Quarter Finals, where they lost to Germany.
Italy beat the Germans in the Semi-Final thanks to Mario Ballotelli who scored a couple.
| Wining Outsider | Result | Opponent | Pre Match Best Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | Beat | Germany | 4.6 |
| Sweden | Beat | France | 5.1 |
| Portugal | Beat | Netherlands | 2.66 |
| Czech Republic | Beat | Poland | 3.2 |
| Greece | Beat | Russia | 4.95 |
| Denmark | Beat | Netherlands | 5.35 |
2008
8 outsiders did the business although prices were a bit skinny.
Of the three tournaments we looked at the average odds of the winning outsiders was only 3.4 or around 5/2.
| Winning Outsider | Result | Opponent | Pre Match Best Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Beat | Portugal | 3.3 |
| Netherlands | Beat | Romania | 2.8 |
| Croatia | Beat | Poland | 2.67 |
| Switzerland | Beat | Portugal | 3.25 |
| Turkey | Beat | Czech Republic | 3.4 |
| Croatia | Beat | Germany | 5.29 |
| Turkey | Beat | Switzerland | 3.3 |
| Netherlands | Beat | Italy | 3.15 |
Odds On Favourites
How did the odds on favourites perform at the Euros?
You would expect that most won their games but that is not the case.
Of the 51 games at Euro 2016 26 had odds on favourites and 12 of those did not win the game
2016
| Won | Drew | Lost |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 7 | 5 |
Of the 31 games at Euro 2012 5 odds on fav did not win the game.
2012
| Won | Drew | Lost |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | 2 | 3 |
Of the 31 games in 2008 4 odds on favs did not win.
2008
| Won | Drew | Lost |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | 3 | 1 |
Taking on an odds favourite either by backing the draw/win double chance for the underdog, or by laying the odds on fav on a betting exchange can offer excellent value.
For a complete list of bookmakers and betting exchanges check out the OLBG best-betting sites article.
