Writer, analyst, podcaster, Spurs fan. Three out of four is not bad. If there is a data angle, I will find it.
EPL Points Totals
Manchester City points total predictions sees them winning the EPL again.
The three promoted teams Bournemouth, Fulham and Nottingham Forest to achieve the fewest points.
North London odds have Tottenham finishing above Arsenal.
EPL Spread Betting Predictions
Below are the points total predictions quoted by a leading spread betting firm.
These points totals will be updated as the season progresses, you can buy and sell at any time throughout the season.
Obviously, it is wise to follow the team you have bought and sold and take note especially if there are a run of easier or hard games.
A team taking on Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool in the same month may see their Buy and Sell price fluctuate heavily.
If you Buy you are hoping the team gets more points than the BUY price.
If you sell you are hoping that the team gets fewer points than the SELL Price.
Spread Betting Example
- Let us say you decided to BUY Chelsea at the pre-season price of 71 to £2 a point.
- If they ended the season with 77 points you would win 77 - 71 x £2 = + £12.
- However, if Chelsea had a poor season and only got 60 points you would lose 71- 60 x £2 = (-£22)
Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel
For a list of Spread Betting companies please use the filters on the best betting sites page.
If you wish to discover the advantages and pitfalls of spread betting please visit the advanced Spread Betting Guide at the OLBG betting school.
Spread Betting Pre-Season Points Market
| Team | Sell | Buy | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 89.5 | 91 | 1 |
| Liverpool | 85 | 86.5 | 2 |
| Tottenham | 71.5 | 73 | 3 |
| Chelsea | 69.5 | 71 | 4 |
| Man Utd | 65.5 | 67 | 5 |
| Arsenal | 64 | 65.5 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 56 | 57.5 | 7 |
| Aston Villa | 50.5 | 52 | 8 |
| Leicester City | 50 | 51.5 | 9 |
| West Ham United | 50 | 51.5 | 10 |
| Brighton | 47 | 48.5 | 11 |
| Crystal Palace | 45 | 46.5 | 12 |
| Everton | 44 | 45.5 | 13 |
| Wolves | 43 | 44.5 | 14 |
| Leeds | 40.5 | 42 | 15 |
| Brentford | 38 | 39.5 | 16 |
| Southampton | 38 | 39.5 | 17 |
| Fulham | 36.5 | 38 | 18 |
| Nottingham Forest | 33 | 34.5 | 19 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 32.5 | 34 | 20 |
Our EPL Spread Betting Predictions
OLBG member Davidg3907 has been running the numbers on the EPL for the last 20 years.
Each season he buys and sells teams weekly hoping to be in a position ahead of the end of the season to have made a profit from this buying and selling.
You can see how his predictions compare to the Spreads.
My EPL Format
Forecasting the results of 380 matches is impossible, so another method must be found.
Creating pre season tissues is a viable alternative.
Once fixtures are announced, I tissue (create odds for) each of the 380 matches.
Although this can be done by programming of some sort, it still requires ‘seeding’ or ‘ratings’. Even then, it can not take into account local derbies/rivalries without more effort.
So, although it appears daunting, I do it all manually.
The practice may not make perfect, but does make it quicker as matches will fall into different types.
For instance, the odds for Man City v Fulham can be treated as about the same as Liverpool v Fulham.
Likely mid-table battles will either have the home side as favourite with the degree of anticipated supremacy governing the odds, or a relatively short-priced outsider.
There has been a tendency for fewer draws in recent seasons, so I am extending the draw odds for many games.
There are 380 matches with 3 points on offer, a total of 1140.
Every draw reduces the total by 1 as only 2 points are awarded. Therefore, 80 draws will mean the total points gained will be 1060, 100 draws reduce that figure to 1040.
My initial tissues are primarily based on a judgment of last season’s performances.
Trying to second guess transfers, managerial changes, injuries etc more than two months ahead is far from an exact science so I will leave things till the season is almost upon us and do a quick re-appraisal of teams that I deem to have benefitted (or otherwise).
It is important not to have access to a running total while entering the tissues. That is to prevent being influenced by outside factors. Each match must be treated on its merit.
I set all matches to a band of betting over-rounds between 101.15 and 101.49. This step is not vital but can be of interest to see how your odds compare with bookmakers’ odds.
The first international break (or about 8-10 matches with transfers completed) is a convenient time at which further small adjustments can be made.
Whether setting a range or not, adjusting to 100% ensures all matches are treated equally (i.e., one match does not have 2.80 pts on offer and another has 3.20). This process can be repeated at any time during the season.
I often use the updated table in conjunction with my relegation blog to search for a set of easier or more difficult fixtures for any team.
Home and Away Points Total Predictions
| Team | Home | Away | Points Total | Finishing Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manch City | 46.09 | 43.13 | 89.22 | 1 |
| Liverpool | 44.11 | 40.55 | 84.65 | 2 |
| Manch Utd | 35.85 | 30.32 | 66.17 | 3 |
| Chelsea | 36.18 | 29.68 | 65.86 | 4 |
| Tottenham | 35.78 | 29.68 | 65.46 | 5 |
| Arsenal | 34.03 | 28.84 | 62.87 | 6 |
| Leicester | 30.45 | 24.72 | 55.18 | 7 |
| West Ham | 29.38 | 23.67 | 53.05 | 8 |
| Newcastle | 26.96 | 20.26 | 47.22 | 9 |
| Brighton | 26.71 | 20.66 | 47.36 | 10 |
| Aston Villa | 26.33 | 19.71 | 46.04 | 11 |
| Wolves | 25.75 | 18.76 | 44.51 | 12 |
| Crystal Palace | 25.51 | 18.94 | 44.46 | 13 |
| Everton | 24.75 | 18.75 | 43.5 | 14 |
| Brentford | 23.79 | 17.7 | 41.49 | 15 |
| Southampton | 24.68 | 16.48 | 41.16 | 16 |
| Leeds | 23.98 | 16.3 | 40.28 | 17 |
| Bournemouth | 22 | 15.18 | 37.17 | 18 |
| Fulham | 21.3 | 15.1 | 36.4 | 19 |
| Nottm Forest | 21.01 | 13.83 | 34.84 | 20 |
You can follow the discussion on the OLBG football forum, here I will be updating my points and relegation bets as the season progresses.
