Experienced journalist and editor covering the sports and betting industry. A football, NFL and rugby specialist, he is a FWA member and judge at the Football Content Awards.
NFL Defense Update
This time last year, I wrote a blog looking at recent defensive trends in the NFL and whether these carried through into the postseason.
2023 Update
I took a look at recent years NFL statistics as wanted to see if things had remained the same in relation to teams winning championships because of defense.
The (CC) teams made the Conference Championship Games that year.
The stats show 29 teams from a possible 120 positions.
Yards Allowed
| Year | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Cleveland Browns | NY Jets | Carolina Panthers | Baltimore Ravens (CC) | Kansas City Chiefs (CC) |
| 2022 | Philadelphia Eagles (CC) | San Francisco 49's (CC) | Washington Redskins | NY Jets | New Orleans Saints |
| 2021 | Buffalo Bills | Carolina Panthers | Cleveland Browns | San Francisco 49's (CC) | Chicago Bears |
| 2020 | LA Rams | New Orleans Saints | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Francisco 49's | Washington Redskins |
| 2019 | New England Patriots | San Francisco 49's (CC) | Buffalo Bills | Baltimore Ravens | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2018 | Baltimore Ravens | Buffalo Bills | Chicago Bears | Minnesota Vikings | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2017 | Minnesota Vikings (CC) | Jacksonville Jaguars (CC) | Denver Broncos | Philadelphia Eagles (CC) | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2016 | Houston Texans | Arizona Cardinals | Minnesota Vikings | Denver Broncos | Seattle Seahawks |
Points Allowed
| Year | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Baltimore Ravens (CC) | Kansas City Chiefs | Buffalo Bills | San Francisco 49's (CC) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2022 | San Francisco 49's (CC) | NY Jets | Baltimore Ravens | Buffalo Bills | Cincinnati Bengals (CC) |
| 2021 | Buffalo Bills | Denver Broncos | New England Patriots | New Orleans Saints | San Francisco 49's (CC) |
| 2020 | Baltimore Ravens | LA Rams | New Orleans Saints | Miami Dolphins | Washington Redskins |
| 2019 | New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills | Baltimore Ravens | Chicago Bears | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2018 | Chicago Bears | Baltimore Ravens | Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2017 | Minnesota Vikings (CC) | Jacksonville Jaguars (CC) | Los Angeles Chargers | Philadelphia Eagles (CC) | New England Patriots (CC) |
| 2016 | New England Patriots (CC) | New York Giants | Seattle Seahawks | Denver Broncos | Dallas Cowboys |
Turnovers Differential
| Year | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Baltimore Ravens (CC) | New York Giants | New Orleans Saints | Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2022 | San Francisco 49's (CC) | Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles (CC) | Detroit Lions | New England Patriots |
| 2021 | Dallas Cowboys | Indianapolis Colts | Green Bay Packers | Arizona Cardinals | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2020 | Tennessee Titans | Indianapolis Colts | Miami Dolphins | New Orleans Saints | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2019 | New England Patriots | New Orleans Saints | Green Bay Packers (CC) | Seattle Seahawks | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2018 | Seattle Seahawks | Houston Texans | Chicago Bears | Los Angeles Rams (CC) | New England Patriots (CC) |
| 2017 | Baltimore Ravens | Kansas City Chiefs | Los Angeles Chargers | Philadelphia Eagles (CC) | Detroit Lions |
| 2016 | Kansas City Chiefs | Las Vegas Raiders | New England Patriots (CC) | Atlanta Falcons (CC) | Minnesota Vikings |
2010- 2015
Although the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS pick didn't work out, the blog also identified the DENVER BRONCOS as potential Superbowl winners based on their strong defensive play and they duly delivered with 7/2 (AFC Champions) and 7/1 (Superbowl) winners.
So what about 2016?
Are there any strong defenses in the NFL postseason and do they match up with recent trends to offer us one or two picks to keep us interested over the next month?
Yards Allowed
| Year | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Denver | Seattle | Houston | New York Jets | Arizona |
| 2014 | Seattle | Kansas City | Buffalo | San Diego | San Francisco |
| 2013 | Seattle | New Orleans | Houston | Buffalo | Cincinnati |
| 2012 | Pittsburgh | New York Jets | Denver | San Francisco | Arizona |
| 2011 | Pittsburgh | Cleveland | Houston | Baltimore | New York Jets |
| 2010 | San Diego | Oakland | Buffalo | New Orleans | Green Bay |
In 2015, four of the top five teams reached the playoffs. Houston were eliminated in the wildcard round, Seattle were eliminated in the divisional round, Arizona reached the NFC conference game whilst Denver won the Superbowl.
In 2014, only one of the five teams (Seattle) ranked inside in the top five made it into the postseason although the Seahawks made it all the way to the Superbowl. Seattle also made it all the way to the Superbowl in 2013, winning it, whilst two other teams in the top five also made it into the postseason, with New Orleans losing to Seattle and Cincinnati lasting just one game
In 2012, only Denver and San Francisco made it into the postseason although the 49ers went all the way to the Superbowl. 2011 saw three teams make the postseason but recorded only two wins.
2010 saw just two teams reach the postseason but whilst New Orleans lost their first game, Green Bay won the Superbowl.
Points Allowed
| Year | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Seattle | Cincinnati | Kansas City | Denver | Minnesota |
| 2014 | Seattle | Detroit | Denver | Buffalo | San Francisco |
| 2013 | Seattle | Carolina | Cincinnati | New Orleans | San Francisco |
| 2012 | Pittsburgh | Denver | San Francisco | Seattle | Chicago |
| 2011 | Pittsburgh | Houston | Baltimore | San Francisco | New York Jets |
| 2010 | San Diego | Pittsburgh | New York Jets | New Orleans | Green Bay |
In 2015, all the top five teams in terms of points allowed made it into the playoffs. Minnesota and Cincinnati didn't make it past the wildcard round whilst Kansas City and Seattle were eliminated in the divisional round. However, Denver went onto win the Superbowl.
The top three teams in 2014 all made it into the postseason but only Seattle made it past one game, reaching the Superbowl. Seattle also made it all the way to the Superbowl in 2013, winning it, whilst two other teams in the top five also made it into the postseason, with New Orleans losing to Seattle and Cincinnati lasting just one game
Three teams in 2012 went to the postseason but only Superbowl runners-up San Francisco made it past their first game. In 2011, Four teams made it into the postseason with three teams winning one round.
2010 was the most successful season for the top five in this category with four of the teams making the postseason and Green Bay winning it all whilst Pittsburgh and the Jets faced off in the AFC title game
Turnovers
| Year | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Carolina | Arizona | New York Jets | Pittsburgh | Kansas City |
| 2014 | Houston | Dallas | Buffalo | Cleveland | San Francisco |
| 2013 | Seattle | Kansas City | Cincinnati | Philadelphia | Tampa Bay |
| 2012 | Chicago | New England | New York Giants | Arizona | Seattle |
| 2011 | San Francisco | Green Bay | New England | Detroit | Seattle |
| 2010 | New York Giants | New England | Pittsburgh | Chicago | Philadelphia |
In 2015, four of the top five teams made it into the playoffs with Kansas City and Pittsburgh losing in the divisional round and Carolina defeating Arizona in the NFC Championship game before losing the Superbowl to Denver.
In 2014, only Dallas made it into the postseason, winning one round before being eliminated. The top four teams all reached the postseason in 2013 but only Seattle, who won the Superbowl, made it past their first match.
Two teams made it into the postseason in 2012 with both New England and Seattle making it through one round. Four teams made it into the postseason in 2011 including Superbowl runners-up New England
Four teams made it to the postseason in 2010 with two teams losing their first game
Possibilities for 2016?
In the last six seasons, three Superbowl winners and one Superbowl runner-up have finished inside the top five in both yards allowed and points allowed.
Two teams achieved that feat in 2016 and they were the same two teams as last season. Denver failed to make the playoffs this season but the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS did, and they finished fifth in yards allowed and third in points allowed.
Seeded third, they'll host the Detroit Lions in the wildcard round before a road trip to Atlanta should they beat Detroit. They've already beaten Atlanta at home this season and although they ended the season 3-3, including a heavy road defeat at Green Bay (38-10), they handed New England one of their two defeats earlier this year.
New England allowed the fewest points this season and I wouldn't put anyone off backing them. However, at a best priced 15/8 for the Superbowl, and just 4/6 for the AFC, they're a touch too short for me. Instead, I have my eyes on the team that forced the most turnovers this season. The KANSAS CITY CHIEFS forced 33 turnovers this season, three more than the next best team, and four of the last six Superbowls have seen a team ranked inside the top five in turnovers take part. After a 2-2 start, the Chiefs ended with 10 wins from their last 12 games to take the second seed from under the nose of their divisional rivals Oakland.
Seattle are 5/1 with bet365 for the NFC and 11/1 for the Superbowl.
Kansas City are 4/1 for the AFC and 10/1 for the Superbowl.
For those more adventurous, the above two teams in the Name the Finalists market are 33/1 with Ladbrokes.
Check out the American Football forum for more discussion and picks during the Playoffs
All my previous blogs can be viewed here To see a wide range of fantastic blogs from the rest of the OLBG bloggers, click hereYou can also follow me on twitter @UTR_83
Contributor Information
We are spoiled with our Expert team at OLBG with our Commercial Content manager Luke Bradshaw-Lee being a keen UK-based NFL fan attending London games and burning the midnight oil to catch all the weekend action, He is ably assisted with inside info from, Michael Calabrese [@EastBreese] ; an Action Network correspondent and College sports podcaster in the US with the deepest football knowledge we have ever come across. They combine to create the best American Football content on OLBG which assists our tipsters in making their NFL predictions in the tipping competition.
Michael Calabrese
US Content Manager
Luke Bradshaw Lee
Senior Sports Betting Editor
The data in this article is maintained and updated regularly by Andy Powell and James Banting from our Tipster Competition team who settle and manage all the tips in that seection
