Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites
Filter Your Bets
In the previous blog, I pointed out the rather significant loss that would be made by backing every favourite, but said that certain filters could return a profit on the smaller frequency of bets if selected carefully.
So, what filters should be used - and most importantly WHY.
There must always be justification for filters rather than just because they make figures and the system look good on paper.
As with backing underdogs, in the long run money will not be made by backing the bigger priced selections due to the infrequent nature of winning bets.
Removing all matches with draw odds of greater than 5.00 reduces the number of bets by about 20-25%.
This season, there have been 71 such matches out of 350 at the time of writing.
Simply removing those turns a 10 pt loss into a 15 pt profit with the previous two seasons being very similar.
Earlier seasons followed the same pattern in general but to varying degrees.
That sounds like a massive success story but in reality, all it does in some seasons is to reduce the amount you would have lost, so further action must be taken.
Without wishing to state the obvious, draws are more likely between fairly evenly matched teams, but of course the odds reflect this fact so just backing the shortest priced draws is not the solution either.
In conjunction with the Poisson thread I have been running, there seems better value in matches where the home team is deemed superior but that is inconclusive due to the smaller sample size.
What is the best way to maximise profit and (if desired) minimise the bets?
Do I want a better LSP (level stake profit) or greater ROI ( return on investment)?
That can depend on whether you are looking for a few bets with a high ROI or more bets producing a better LSP with a reduced ROI.
One factor that I always take into consideration when applying filters is to keep results as consistent as possible from season to season as this helps to eliminate violent swings while ensuring the system is as robust as possible.
EPL Tables With Filters
The following three tables show the application of different filters.
With only 71 draws in 2018/19, any sort of profit would have been unlikely.
Previous lows for draws had been 78 in 2013/14 and 84 in 2015/16.
The other nine seasons had between 93 and 111.
This season has 85 from 350 matches, so is on course for the low 90’s again.
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ROI for table 1 is 3.66% over 2117 bets.
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ROI for table 2 is 6.38% over 729 bets.
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ROI for table 3 is 5.34% over 451 bets.
In theory, that makes table 2 the best option, but table 3 would return a greater profit if stakes were increased by about 50% to make an overall investment similar.
EPL Table 1 - Backing The Draw Where The Home and Away Team Are At Evens Or Above
ROI for table 1 is 3.66% over 2117 bets.
Table 1 shows matches where both teams are at evens or odds against.
This leads to a bet in around 50% of matches.
| Season | Returns | Bets | Wins | LSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/19 | £137.60 | 163 | 40 | (-25.40) |
| 17/18 | £189.44 | 163 | 57 | 26.44 |
| 16/17 | £155.46 | 157 | 46 | (-1.54) |
| 15/16 | £225.60 | 197 | 65 | 28.60 |
| 14/15 | £183.39 | 179 | 54 | 4.39 |
| 13/14 | £160.55 | 179 | 47 | (-18.45) |
| 12/13 | £234.88 | 190 | 68 | 44.88 |
| 11/12 | £182.25 | 180 | 53 | 2.25 |
| 10/11 | £193.83 | 183 | 57 | 10.83 |
| 09/10 | £180.56 | 169 | 54 | 11.56 |
| 08/09 | £172.99 | 190 | 52 | (-17.01) |
| 07/08 | £177.88 | 167 | 54 | 10.88 |
| Total | £2194.43 | 2117 | 647 | 77.43 |
| Average | £182.87 | 176.42 | 53.92 | 6.45 |
EPL Table 2 - Backing The Draw Where The Home and Away Team Are At Odds Between 2.50 & 3.50
ROI for table 2 is 6.38% over 729 bets.
Table 2 shows what happens when both teams are in the 2.50 to 3.50 odds range.
It will lead to bets in about 1 in 6 of the matches.
| Season | Returns | Bets | Wins | LSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/19 | £51.60 | 63 | 15 | (-11.40) |
| 17/18 | £72.30 | 65 | 22 | 7.30 |
| 16/17 | £68.93 | 58 | 21 | 10.93 |
| 15/16 | £92.45 | 77 | 27 | 15.45 |
| 14/15 | £76.68 | 68 | 23 | 8.68 |
| 13/14 | £61.10 | 55 | 18 | 6.10 |
| 12/13 | £77.88 | 59 | 23 | 18.88 |
| 11/12 | £56.75 | 63 | 17 | (-6.25) |
| 10/11 | £52.86 | 61 | 16 | (-8.14) |
| 09/10 | £36.60 | 47 | 11 | (10.40) |
| 08/09 | £69.50 | 62 | 21 | 7.50 |
| 07/08 | £58.83 | 51 | 18 | 7.83 |
| Total | £775.48 | 729 | 232 | 46.48 |
| Average | £64.63 | 60.75 | 19.33 | 3.87 |
EPL Table 3 - Backing The Draw Where The Home and Away Team Are At Odds Between 2.50 & 3.00
ROI for table 3 is 5.34% over 451 bets.
Table 3 covers an even more exclusive range of 2.50 to 3.00.
Bet frequency is now about 1 in 10.
Figures in both table 2 and table 3 show 6 seasons of profit prior to a loss when there was such a dearth of draws last season.
| Season | Returns | Bets | Wins | LSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/19 | £38.05 | 46 | 11 | 7.95 |
| 17/18 | £37.15 | 36 | 11 | 1.15 |
| 16/17 | £29.81 | 28 | 9 | 1.81 |
| 15/16 | £55.42 | 47 | 16 | 8.42 |
| 14/15 | £43.48 | 40 | 13 | 3.48 |
| 13/14 | £30.90 | 24 | 9 | 6.90 |
| 12/13 | £54.30 | 36 | 16 | 18.30 |
| 11/12 | £33.70 | 41 | 10 | (-7.30) |
| 10/11 | £33.36 | 35 | 10 | (-1.64) |
| 09/10 | £23.35 | 32 | 7 | (-8.65) |
| 08/09 | £56.35 | 49 | 17 | 7.35 |
| 07/08 | £38.23 | 37 | 12 | 2.23 |
| Total | 475.10 | 451 | 141 | 24.10 |
| Average | 39.59 | 37.58 | 11.75 | 2.01 |
EPL Blog Takeaway
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Use filters to concentrate on a specific set of data.
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Decide how many bets you want to make and what ROI suits your style.
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No system will make money backing draws when there are insufficient draws.
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Visit the OLBG betting school for more information on betting systems.
