Betting Approach - How far in advance should we place our bets on football ?

Football betting has developed and progressed massively over the last 10 years.

Punters have a seemingly ever-increasing array of betting options to choose from, along with a host of bookies all vying to be the best bookmaker for football.  

One of the massive ways football betting has changed is the choice punters now have in terms of when to place their bets.

Punters can now bet on events weeks and months in advance, bet a few days before the event, or even bet live while the event is in play.

You can read the OLBG take on in-running betting in this betting school article. 

I am going to do my best at answering the title of this blog as I find it a fascinatingly subjective question. 

Should we be betting 6 months, 6 weeks, 6 days before, or even 6 minutes after kick-off to get the best results?

It has to be stated that betting is about personal choice and clearly how far in advance you bet is a personal choice as individual punters we will all see things differently.

There is absolutely no definitive wrong or right way of doing things, but hopefully, you'll find this to be interesting and helpful in some way.

1. How far in advance should we place our bets on football? - Ante-Post perspective

Technically speaking an Ante-post bet is a bet struck before a stated event begins.

You can have an ante-post bet on an event 3 months or 3 minutes before it kicks off 

Ante-post bets for me are specifically about long-range bets 

E.G Backing a team to win the Premier League in July when it won't be decided until April or May.

I've been placing ante-post bets on football for at least the last 10 years and it's something I've always enjoyed 

Building an ante-post betting portfolio is something I greatly look forward to doing pre-season.

Football managers and football players go through their pre-season routines and as a punter, I look forward to doing my own pre-season punting preparations 

I just love the challenge of working through the now truly massive range of ante-post markets to find bets that I believe will give me added interest in the football for the entire season.

When we bet we, of course, all want to win, we wouldn't bet otherwise.

However, I also have a bet to add interest and value to a particular event. I've always found that ante-post betting does that for me.

I enjoy the challenge of testing my judgement, to see if I can evaluate scenarios accurately at the time, and then evaluate how those particular scenarios will work out.

Of course with the motivation of looking for both betting value and added interest. 

One particular ante-post project I look forward to doing, indeed I'll be starting this season version very soon, is to find an ante-post bet for every Premier League team.

That's 20 ante-post bets, and doing that gives me an interest in every team, and therefore every match throughout the season.

The ante-post markets I cover include 

• Outright league winner.
• Top London club.
• Backing a team to reach the top 4.
• Backing a team to achieve a particular points total.
• Top goalscorer 

So whether it be Liverpool vs Manchester United or Leicester City vs Watford, each game means something to me, and I find it improves my combined viewing and punting experience.

The positives of doing ante-post football bets for the entire season from a purely betting perspective are to try and find that betting edge, 

Find that value where you believe a team or player is too big a price 

If you hold that belief that once the season starts and hopefully that the prices will drop.

This particularly applies pre-season.

A modern way of looking at ante-post betting is to adopt a betting in-play type strategy via taking a position ie Manchester United to win the league at 5/1 in the belief they will invest and will be stronger, start the season well and then lay them at shorter odds to cover your original stake meaning you can make a profit whatever happens.

Suggestion

 I certainly recommend you look into the possibility of having small stakes ante-post bets for added interest and betting value,

As stated punters now have the option to either let the bet simply ride or adopt a bet in-play policy.

2. How far in advance should we place our bets on football? - Short term perspective

As stated, a bet struck before the actual event begins is technically an ante-post bet.

But I've explained how I see ante-post bets to be bets struck weeks and months ahead of the kickoff.

Betting on a match from a week before right up until kick-off is a short term perspective and involves different aspects to consider. 

Of course, the actual live Bet In-Play markets can also impact on your betting strategy.

In today's world with internet betting leading the way, odds are available for most individual matches a week in advance and that means punters can make judgements on those games as soon as those odds appear.

Has the value gone by the time the teams are announced or are you just betting blind without team news? 

A week ahead of the match it's next to impossible to be confident about final team news, likely tactics, and match strategy 

If you are a relatively big stakes punter it makes more sense to wait until as late as possible, perhaps even In-Play before you make your move in the market.

However, like all markets and betting scenarios, there is definite merit in looking at the early odds and taking a punt if you believe a team is a bigger price at that point than they are likely to become

If you so wish you now have the facility to take the odds at a certain stake and then lay off again.

My experience working in bookmakers for 4 years showed me that the vast majority of punters start looking at football match markets from a few days before the kick-off. 

That's when any potential market moves are likely to start as the betting volumes increase.

Of course, today's 24/7 news means there is relentless updates of team news, manager and player interviews, availability of statistics

Punters and bookmakers can react faster, basically instantaneously and what used to be known as 'fixed odds' on football don't really exist now, the markets are live 24/7, 

You could go to bed see a team priced 2/1 and then wake up to see they are now only 6/4, that's the way of today's football betting world.

3. How far in advance should we place our bets on football? - Bet In-Play perspective

Betting In-Play has been a monumental development in football betting in the last 5 years.

I can remember working for a bookmaker and when it first became a regular feature within the betting shops.

The majority of the shop punters then were not online punters so had never heard of betting in play.

Betting In-Play means you are betting once the match has kicked off. 

when you are fully aware of all the team news and likely tactics, you can react to what's happening within the match and react to all the live statistics.

With Betting In-Play you are betting on live events, the next card, next goal, next goalscorer, which team will win 2nd half, the betting options are seemingly endless.

An ever-increasing army of punters believe betting in play is definitely the right punting path to follow and that betting before the game actually starts is a disadvantage.

Feel free to add your views on this, all thoughts welcome, post them on here or contact me on twitter @tbuckleythinks