Alternative Value in the NHL

The use of stats in American sports is rife and the NHL is no different. The traditional betting markets are the moneyline (who will win including OT), the puck line (the favourite has to cover a 1.5 goal spread whilst the underdog gets a 1.5 goal head start) and the total goals.

But with all the stats available to us, we can try and get a step ahead of the bookmakers in some of the less traditional markets such as the 3-way moneyline (or the 60 minute win-draw-win market) and the in-play moneyline if the game goes to overtime,

3-way moneyline

For those who bet on Football (or soccer) this is a familiar market and is just the 60 minute result which means we also have the draw as an option.

The draw in the NHL is generally available between 5/2 and 3/1 for most games but trying to predict a draw in the NHL is a lot tougher than in football. Quite often in football, we see teams trying to play for a draw with the way that they set up their formation but that doesn't happen in the NHL.

But that doesn't mean we can't use the stats to our advantage as some teams will develop a habit during the season of going into overtime.

Teams worth looking at the 60 minute draw

Philadelphia Flyers :- 25 of 77 games level after 60 minutes (32.5%)

Boston Bruins - 25 of 78 games level after 60 minutes (32.1%)

Florida Panthers - 24 of 78 games level after 60 minutes (30.8%)

Teams worth avoiding when looking to back the draw)

Tampa Bay Lightning - 13 of 79 games level after 60 minutes (16.5%)

Toronto Maple Leafs - 13 of 78 games level after 60 minutes (16.7%)

Vancouver Canucks - 15 of 78 games level after 60 minutes (19.2%)

But it's not just the draw that we can look at in this market. When the top teams play some of the bottom feeders, the odds can be so short on the moneyline that it puts bettors off. By backing a team to win in 60 minutes, it increases the potential payout (although you also lose the buffer of overtime).

A quick look through the standings shows that if you think a team will lose a particular game, then you may as well take the 60 minute line as a high proportion of their losses come inside regulation

Teams to back against inside 60 minutes (if you think they'll lose)

Columbus Blue Jackets - 35 of 39 losses inside regulation (89.7%)

Buffalo Sabres :- 47 of 55 losses inside regulation (85.5%)

Arizona Coyotes - 46 of 54 losses inside regulation (85.2%)

Vancouver Canucks :- 28 of 33 losses inside regulation (84.8%)

Overtime betting In-Play

Most bookmakers now offer in-play betting on the NHL and when a game ends level after 60 minutes, the moneyline (a team to win in either overtime or a shootout) generally moves to 10/11 on both teams. The theory being that a 5 minute 4-on-4 period followed by a shootout is pretty much a lottery.

However, the stats show something completely different and just like certain teams are better on the powerplay etc., there are teams who play a 4-on-4 situation better than others whilst some teams carry more prolific shootout scorers than others.

Teams to back in-play after 60 minutes

Columbus Blue Jackets - Won 13 of 17 games after 60 minutes (76.5%)

Anaheim Ducks - Won 16 of 23 games after 60 minutes (69.6%)

New York Islanders - Won 13 of 19 games after 60 minutes (68.4%)

Teams to back against in-play after 60 minutes

Los Angeles Kings - Lost 14 of 17 games after 60 minutes (82.4%)

New Jersey Devils - Lost 13 of 18 games after 60 minutes (72.2%)

Carolina Hurricanes - Lost 11 of 16 games after 60 minutes (68.8%)

Philadelphia Flyers - Lost 17 of 25 games after 60 minutes (68.0%)

*All Stats up to date for games completed up to April 2nd Visit Ice Hockey Forum All my previous blogs can be viewed here To see a wide range of fantastic blogs from the rest of the OLBG bloggers, click here Follow me on twitter @UTR_83