Writer, analyst, podcaster, Spurs fan. Three out of four is not bad. If there is a data angle, I will find it.
THE GOLD BALL
The Ballon d'Or, initiated by "France Football" in the 1950s, annually recognizes Europe's finest footballer. After merging with FIFA from 2010 to 2015, the award reverted to its original form post-2016. Crafted by Mellerio dits Meller, it symbolizes football’s highest honour.
In this article, we have employed AI, loaded it with data and asked for predictions for the next Ballon d'Or winner!
THE AWARD WINNERS
Lionel Messi // Photo: YES Market Media/shutterstock
To date and before the 2024 recipient gets his hand on the award, a total of 45 players have finished somewhere within the top three since the inception of the prize
| Player | Winner | Second place | Third place |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 8 (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019, 2021, 2023) | 5 (2008, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017) | 1 (2007) |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 5 (2008, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017) | 6 (2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2018) | 1 (2019) |
| Michel Platini | 3 (1983, 1984, 1985) | 2 (1977, 1980) | |
| Johan Cruyff | 3 (1971, 1973, 1974) | 1 (1975) | |
| Marco van Basten | 3 (1988, 1989, 1992) | ||
| Franz Beckenbauer | 2 (1972, 1976) | 2 (1974, 1975) | 1 (1966) |
| Ronaldo | 2 (1997, 2002) | 1 (1996) | 1 (1998) |
| Alfredo Di Stéfano | 2 (1957, 1959) | 1 (1956) | |
| Kevin Keegan | 2 (1978, 1979) | 1 (1977) | |
| Karl-Heinz Rummenigge | 2 (1980, 1981) | 1 (1979) | |
| Luis Suárez | 1 (1960) | 2 (1961, 1964) | 1 (1965) |
| Eusébio | 1 (1965) | 2 (1962, 1966) | |
| Bobby Charlton | 1 (1966) | 2 (1967, 1968) | |
| Raymond Kopa | 1 (1958) | 1 (1959) | 2 (1956, 1957) |
| Gerd Müller | 1 (1970) | 1 (1972) | 2 (1969, 1973) |
| Zinedine Zidane | 1 (1998) | 1 (2000) | 1 (1997) |
| Gianni Rivera | 1 (1969) | 1 (1963) | |
| Ruud Gullit | 1 (1987) | 1 (1988) | |
| Lothar Matthäus | 1 (1990) | 1 (1991) | |
| Roberto Baggio | 1 (1993) | 1 (1994) | |
| Hristo Stoichkov | 1 (1994) | 1 (1992) | |
| Andriy Shevchenko | 1 (2004) | 2 (1999, 2000) | |
| George Best | 1 (1968) | 1 (1971) | |
| Allan Simonsen | 1 (1977) | 1 (1983) | |
| Ronaldinho | 1 (2005) | 1 (2004) | |
| Stanley Matthews | 1 (1956) | ||
| Omar Sivori | 1 (1961) | ||
| Josef Masopust | 1 (1962) | ||
| Lev Yashin | 1 (1963) | ||
| Denis Law | 1 (1964) | ||
| Flórián Albert | 1 (1967) | ||
| Oleg Blokhin | 1 (1975) | ||
| Paolo Rossi | 1 (1982) | ||
| Igor Belanov | 1 (1986) | ||
| Jean-Pierre Papin | 1 (1991) | ||
| George Weah | 1 (1995) | ||
| Matthias Sammer | 1 (1996) | ||
| Rivaldo | 1 (1999) | ||
| Luís Figo | 1 (2000) | ||
| Michael Owen | 1 (2001) | ||
| Pavel Nedvěd | 1 (2003) | ||
| Fabio Cannavaro | 1 (2006) | ||
| Kaká | 1 (2007) | ||
| Luka Modrić | 1 (2018) | ||
| Karim Benzema | 1 (2022) |
Of those 45 that have made it to one step of the podium since, it is Lionel Messi who has been on the top step the most number of times.
Eight at the time of writing and a number that looks unlikely to be exceeded now that he is in the latter stage of his phemonenal football career.
Of course, you could say that same about his nemesis Cristiano Ronaldo and with he and his Argentinian arch-rival swapping Ballon d'Or wins across the course of a decade and more, he ranks second on the list with five wins.
Five wins but six second place berths to go with that quartet of wins and one more than Messi himself has picked up.
Each of the two in question have also finished third, Messi in 2007 and Cristiano Ronaldo as recently as 2019 and this means they have sat on the award podium 14 and 12 times respectively.
Those two icons make up a list of 10 players who have won the award more than once with five players in total winning the award on more than two occasions.
Three other players apart from the two rivals of the current millennium and also in the Ballon d'Or Hall of Fame are Michel Platini's three successive wins between 1983 to 1985, Johan Cruyff who won three awards between 1971 and 1974 and fellow Dutchman Marco Van Bastern who scooped the prize on three occasions between 1988 and 1992.
Of those five who have won the prize twice, Franz Beckenbauer, Ronaldo, Alfredo Di Stefano, Kevin Keegan and Karl-Heinz Rummenigge find themselves within esteemed company.
THE GOLDEN NATIONS
Now that we know which individual players have been the best of the best on most occasions, it is time to look at which nation has served up the most winners of the Ballon d'Or
| Country | Players | Wins |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 1 | 8 |
| France | 5 | 7 |
| Germany | 5 | 7 |
| Netherlands | 3 | 7 |
| Portugal | 3 | 7 |
| Italy | 5 | 5 |
| Brazil | 4 | 5 |
| England | 4 | 5 |
| Soviet Union | 3 | 3 |
| Spain | 2 | 3 |
| Bulgaria | 1 | 1 |
| Croatia | 1 | 1 |
| Czech Republic | 1 | 1 |
| Czechoslovakia | 1 | 1 |
| Denmark | 1 | 1 |
| Hungary | 1 | 1 |
| Liberia | 1 | 1 |
| Northern Ireland | 1 | 1 |
| Scotland | 1 | 1 |
| Ukraine | 1 | 1 |
Argentina sits at the top of this particular table, and they do so with eight overall wins. This is impressive in itself, but it is even more so when you consider that they have all come from one player.
Lionel Messi is responsible for all eight awards that can be attributed to Argentina; not even fellow great and compatriot Diego Maradona ever got his hands on this award—although previous criteria would have stopped him from doing so.
With the award previously awarded to European players only, it will be no surprise that four European nations are tied in second with seven wins each.
The awesome foursome currently consists of France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Portugal. Whereas Messi was doing the heavy lifting for Argentina, the workload is spread out elsewhere.
France's seven wins are courtesy of five separate players, the same figure as Germany. This is two more than the Netherlands and Portugal, which required three players to reach their total of seven.
The next bracket of success sees three nations with five wins apiece, and England is situated next to Italy and Brazil in this bracket.
The Three Lions have put forward four individual winners of the Ballon d'Or, but there has been no winner since Michael Owen in 2001, the same number as Brazil and both one fewer than their Italian counterparts.
In total, 20 separate nations have submitted a Ballon d'Or—a list that also includes Scotland and Denis Law's win in 1964.
REPRESENTING YOUR CLUB
Barcelona vs Real Madrid // Photo: oasisamuel/shutterstock
With the breakdown of the award winners by nationality being revealed, we can also look at the winners and the club that were representing at the time of award success:
| Club | Players | Wins |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 8 | 12 |
| Barcelona | 6 | 12 |
| Juventus | 6 | 8 |
| Milan | 6 | 8 |
| Bayern Munich | 3 | 5 |
| Manchester United | 4 | 4 |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 2 |
| Inter Milan | 2 | 2 |
| Hamburger SV | 1 | 2 |
| Ajax | 1 | 1 |
| Benfica | 1 | 1 |
| Blackpool | 1 | 1 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 1 |
| Dukla Prague | 1 | 1 |
| Dynamo Moscow | 1 | 1 |
| Ferencváros | 1 | 1 |
| Inter Miami | 1 | 1 |
| Liverpool | 1 | 1 |
| Marseille | 1 | 1 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 1 |
With Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo scooping up everything between 2008 and 2017, it will be no surprise that La Liga giants Real Madrid and Barcelona are ranked one and two in the table.
Each of the Spanish giants has won the award on 12 separate occasions, although Real Madrid is likely to nudge ahead to 13 should Vinicius Jr. win the 2024 award as expected.
For now, their Catalan rivals can claim some form of moral victory, one that comes in the form of requiring just six players to win those 12 awards rather than the eight that Real Madrid has required to date.
At the time of writing, 24 of the 67 award wins, or 35.8%, have come from the two clubs that contest the El Clasico. They are the only two clubs to have put forward at least ten winners.
However, the efforts of Juventus and Milan should not be overlooked. The two Italian giants have been represented eight times in terms of wins, with both clubs requiring six players to get there.
To date, 21 clubs have been represented by an award winner, and although there are the usual glamour names such as Barcelona or Real Madrid, there is also Blackpool thanks to Stanley Matthews' win in the 1950s.
Blackpool is one of three English clubs to be represented alongside Premier League heavyweights Liverpool and Manchester United.
LOOK TO THE FUTURE
With Vinicius Junior expected to lift the 2024 award, it is time to look to the future and for this, we have dusted off OLBGPT and asked it a very important question.
Who from 2025 will be the next five winners of the award?
The answers are as follows:
| Year | 1st Place | 2nd Place | 3rd Place |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Kylian Mbappé | Erling Haaland | Vinícius Júnior |
| 2026 | Jude Bellingham | Pedri | Kylian Mbappé |
| 2027 | Pedri | Jude Bellingham | Vinícius Júnior |
| 2028 | Vinícius Júnior | Erling Haaland | Gavi |
| 2029 | Gavi | Vinícius Júnior | Jamal Musiala |
More importantly, here is the reasoning that OLBGPT put forward for each:
- Kylian Mbappé remains a dynamic force in football and will look to flourish at Real Madrid.
- Jude Bellingham emerges as one of the dominant midfielders, potentially becoming a key figure for Real Madrid and England.
- Vinícius Júnior solidifies his standing as one of the most explosive forwards, particularly with Real Madrid’s continued success.
- Pedri and Gavi form the core of a resurgent Barcelona and the Spanish national team, representing the next generation of top-tier playmakers.
- Jamal Musiala, an exciting young player for Bayern Munich and Germany, is rising in prominence and starting to challenge for top honours.
Of course, a lot can change in the next five years. Form, injury, and transfers will all play their part, but when it comes to award time in 2025, it will be interesting to see if our first prediction comes true.
