Long Distance Hurdle Preview, Trends & Analysis

We look at the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle ahead of the next renewal, a race contested over 3m at Newbury to see which runners, trainers and jockeys have previously won the race and which trends can you use to find the winner of the Long Distance Hurdle.

Long Distance Hurdle Preview, Trends & Analysis

2023 Long Distance Hurdle Preview

A race that usually features runners who compete in the Stayers Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, scheduled to take place in November of each year at the Newbury racecourse is the Long Distance Hurdle. The runner will have a distance of three miles and a total of twelve hurdles between them and success in this race.

There has been no lack of back-to-back winners in the race, Deano's Beeno won it in both 1999 & 2000 for Pipe & McCoy, and the French raider Baracouda won it in 2003 & 2004 before Inglis Drever went one better with wins in 2005, 2006 & 2007. The legend that is Big Buck is the most successful horse in the race having won it four years on the bounce between 2009 & 2012, however, no runner has won back-to-back since, Unowhatimeanharry did win it twice but not consecutive years.

Long Distance Hurdle Content:

Our dedicated Newbury Betting Picks will not only bring you predictions from the OLBG racing tipsters for the upcoming card that includes the Long Distance Hurdle but will also have predictions for each meeting at Newbury throughout the season so be sure to head over there.

Over the last 20 renewals, it was the Paul Nicholls trained Celestial Halo ridden by Daryl Jacob who set the fastest winning time in the Long Distance Hurdle, the runner won the race in a time of 5:48.35 was set when winning the race in 2013. At the other end of the scale, it was the combination of trainer Howard Johnson and jockey Tony Dobbin with Inglis Drever who set the slowest winning time, the race-winning time was 6:38.50 in the 2006 renewal.

These are the top three quickest-run Long Distance Hurdle over the last 20 renewals:

  • 2013 - Celestial Halo (5:48.35)
  • 2005 - Inglis Drever (5:49.30)
  • 2022 - Champ (5:53.70)

How competitive is the Long Distance Hurdle market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2012 when the race had an over-round of 106%. The race in 2011 was a race that was most in the bookie's favour with an over-round of 120%, whilst on average over the last 20 renewals of the Long Distance Hurdle, the over-round has been 112%, which means the bookie expects to pay out £100 for every £112 which is bet.

Looking at the future form, is the winner worth following next time out? From the past 20 if you had followed the winner of the Long Distance Hurdle next time out then you would have backed a total of 9 winners. Backing all 19 runners who have been out since to win at SP next time out, would have returned an LSP of -2.89. Remember to bookmark the racing tips page so you can get easy access to the OLBG racing picks on a daily basis.

Long Distance Hurdle Past Winners

Here are the Long Distance Hurdle past winners for the last 10 renewals. Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse. The trainer of the horse at the time of winning the Long Distance Hurdle as well as the jockey is also displayed along with the starting price the horse was sent off.

Year Horse Info
2022
5:53.70
Champ (IRE)
10yo 11-8 11/8F
Jonjo O'Neill Jr
Nicky Henderson (GB)
2021
5:56.20
Thomas Darby (IRE)
8yo 11-0 7/1
Sean Bowen
Olly Murphy (GB)
2020
5:58.62
Thyme Hill (GB)
6yo 11-3 7/2
Richard Johnson
Philip Hobbs (GB)
2019
6:02.15
Paisley Park (IRE)
7yo 11-6 8/15F
Aidan Coleman
Emma Lavelle (GB)
2018
5:55.00
Unowhatimeanharry (GB)
10yo 11-0 11/4F
Barry Geraghty
Harry Fry (GB)
2017
6:02.90
Beer Goggles (IRE)
6yo 11-0 40/1
Richard Johnson
Richard Woollacott (GB)
2016
5:56.70
Unowhatimeanharry (GB)
8yo 11-4 7/2
Barry Geraghty
Harry Fry (GB)
2015
6:18.25
Thistlecrack (GB)
7yo 11-4 7/2
Tom Scudamore
Colin Tizzard (GB)
2014
6:13.80
Medinas (FR)
7yo 11-0 8/1
Richard Johnson
Alan King (GB)
2013
5:48.35
Celestial Halo (IRE)
9yo 11-8 7/2
Daryl Jacob
Paul Nicholls (GB)

Where have the winning runners come from?

Here are the countries where the winning trainers of the Long Distance Hurdle have been based:

  • GB: 18 winners with an additional 22 placings from 119 runners
  • FR: 2 winners with an additional 1 placing from 6 runners
  • IRE: 0 winners with an additional 0 placings from 3 runners

Long Distance Hurdle Trainer Statistics

The leading trainer in the Long Distance Hurdle over the last 20 renewals is Paul Nicholls who has won the race 5 times. Those 5 winners came from Big Bucks (2009), Big Bucks (2010), Big Bucks (2011), Big Bucks (2012) & Celestial Halo (2013). Other trainers who have recorded multiple wins in the Long Distance Hurdle are Nicky Henderson (2 wins) & Harry Fry (2 wins).

Here are some of the top Long Distance Hurdle trainer statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Runners, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Trainer R-W-P Win EW
Paul Nicholls 10-5-8 -0.60 +4.42
Nicky Henderson 6-2-4 +6.38 +5.45
Harry Fry 5-2-3 +3.25 +1.54
Alan King 8-1-3 +1.00 +0.57
Emma Lavelle 7-1-3 -5.47 -2.65
Colin Tizzard 4-1-2 +0.50 +0.25
Philip Hobbs 3-1-2 +1.50 +1.30
Olly Murphy 2-1-1 +6.00 +3.38
Nigel Twiston-Davies 7-0-2 -7.00 -5.35
Rebecca Curtis 5-0-0 -5.00 -5.00

Long Distance Hurdle Jockey Statistics

Here are some of the top Long Distance Hurdle jockey statistics over the last 20 renewals (R = Rides, W = Winners, P = Places including winners, Win LSP is based on 1pt Win and EW LSP is based on 0.5pt Win & 0.5pt Place):

Jockey R-W-P Win EW
Aidan Coleman 8-1-3 -6.47 -4.65
Daryl Jacob 6-1-1 -1.50 -1.81
Tom Scudamore 4-1-3 +0.50 +2.75
Denis O'Regan 4-1-1 -1.12 -1.82
Sean Bowen 3-1-1 +5.00 +2.38
Jonjo O'Neill Jr 1-1-1 +1.38 +0.86
Graham Lee 1-1-1 +0.62 +0.39
Paddy Brennan 4-0-1 -4.00 -3.10
Adam Wedge 2-0-1 -2.00 +0.25
Dougie Costello 2-0-0 -2.00 -1.00

2023 Long Distance Hurdle Trends

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, PU, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 3, 5, 2, 5, 1, 1, 3, 3, 1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

  • 20 / 20 (63%) - Achieved an RPR of 143+ (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (66%) - Achieved an RPR of 149+ (Last 3)
  • 20 / 20 (66%) - Highest Won is not G2/LST/Cl3/Cl4
  • 20 / 20 (72%) - Achieved a TS of 127+ (Last 5)
  • 20 / 20 (77%) - No bigger than 11/1 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (78%) - Achieved a TS of 133+ (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Achieved an RPR of 144+ (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Not in IRL/SCO/WAL (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Not in a LST/Cl3/Cl4/Cl5 (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (80%) - Not in a G3/LST/Cl3-5 (LTO)
  • 20 / 20 (82%) - Off a break of 17-333 days
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Had 1-7 wins (Going)
  • 20 / 20 (83%) - Beaten no more 17l (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (84%) - Not on HY/GF/STD (Debut)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Made 7-39 starts (Career)
  • 20 / 20 (86%) - Ran over 2m3½f - 3m2½f (Last Win)
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Within the first 6 of market
  • 20 / 20 (88%) - Highest Run is not G2/G3

Remember to use the trends listed above along with the Newbury racing predictions to see if you can find the winner of the Long Distance Hurdle. if you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.

Are you already a member? If not, then why not? With over £6,000 given away each month in the tipster competition, why not get involved? Remember, It is completely FREE! So, head over to the registration page to sign up today! If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Long Distance Hurdle by adding a tip on the race here.

Long Distance Hurdle Trend Analysis

The trend factor which has produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +27.82 is when runners ran on Soft ground on debut. The worst performing factor which has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had a highest class won of Class 1 (G2), when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-30.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Long Distance Hurdle is Aintree, there has been a total number of 8 winners of this race who ran at Aintree last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Cheltenham, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 20 winners from a total of 120 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 8 runners.

Looking over the past renewals, these are the stallions whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Long Distance Hurdle:

  • Cadoudal (4 Wins)
  • In The Wings (3 Wins)
  • Alesso (2 Wins)
  • Kayf Tara (2 Wins)
  • Oscar (2 Wins)
  • Sir Harry Lewis (2 Wins)

Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Beer Goggles in 2017, winning for Richard Woollacott at odds of 40/1 under the guidance of Richard Johnson. Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there has been a total of 12 winning favourites in the race. Remember to bookmark the best racing tipsters page so you can get easy access to the best OLBG racing tipsters.

Other Principal races at Newbury racecourse

Here are some other notable races at the Newbury racecourse throughout the racing season that you may be interested in.

Races in February

Races in March

Races in May

Races in July

Races in November

Races at the Spring Trials

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