Pierre Poilievre now 95% sure of becoming new Conservative Leader with betting odds of just -2000

Updated: 313 Politics & Current Affairs

Pierre Poilievre now 95% sure of becoming new Conservative Leader with betting odds of just -2000
Steve Madgwick Editor-In-Chief

Editor-In-Chief with 20 years experience covering the betting angles to breaking news stories. Daily slots player, Portsmouth fan and League Snooker Player

  • The New Conservative leader will be announced on September 10th
  • Betting sites have Pierre Poilievre as the short-priced favorite in betting markets
  • Jean Charest is the only other possible candidate according to bookmakers

It has been a long wait to find the replacement for removed Erin O'Toole at the head of the Conservative party, but the leadership election is now just a few weeks away and Pierre Poilievre is the shortest possible price with betting sites to win.

With odds of just -2000 representing a 95% chance of victory according to betting sites, it would seem the leadership race is a forgone conclusion.

Next Conservative Leader Betting Odds

Candidate Moneyline Decimal Probability
Pierre Poilievre -2000 1.05 95.2%
Jean Charest 2400 25 4%
Leslyn Lewis 10000 100 1%
Patrick Brown 10000 100 1%
Roman Baber 10000 100 1%


As we can see from the betting odds above, outside of Poilievre, just Jean Charest would have any kind chance according to betting sites with odds of +2400, whilst the remainder of the candidates can be bet at odds of 10000 or greater.

As far as the betting is concerned, there is only one player in the race for conservative party leadership in the election and according to betting odds, there is a 95% chance that Pierre Poilievre will be installed.

Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert - OLBG.com

When is the Conservative Leadership Election?

The Conservative Leadership election is due to take place on September 10th, when the replacement for interim leader, Candice Bergen, will be elected.

The Conservative party remain the opposition since the 2021 Federal elections.

Former leader Erin O'Toole was removed as the leader in February this year after initially taking up the post in August 2020, failure to win the Federal election resulted in O'Toole announcing he intended to remain leader, but in November 2021, moves began to be made to challenge his leadership.

The ballots need to be completed and returned by 5 pm EST on September 6th before the official election results are announced on September 10th

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