Federal Election Now 44% Likely to Come in 2024, but 2023 is Not Off the Table

The next Federal Election in Canada could take as long as 2025 to come around but betting sites odds on offer suggest we could see things up for a vote sooner, with +125 odds on a 2024 election suggesting a 44% chance of an earlier schedule.

Next Federal Election Betting Odds

Key to the date of the next Federal Election is progress on key NDP priorities, including a federal dental care plan.

There was some consideration that current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might take advantage of a snap election before voters get to know the newly elected conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, but chances of a 2023 election are set at +300 according to betting odds right now.

More likely is that an election will be called late in 2024, ahead of the scheduled 2025 date of 20th October.

Record inflation levels have left the Liberal leader with a less secure position and delivery of the NDP priorities whilst on track need to be kept a close eye on, and perhaps it has been felt a little too insecure to chance anything earlier than 2024.

Ultimately there is a lot of indecision in the polls, with the Conservatives given a slender lead and disapproval ratings on Trudeau at all time highs.