Recovery Staking To A Target Plan

Chasing Your Losses?

I could have titled this blog "Chasing Your Losses", because basically that is the aim of a recovery staking plan. 

But "chasing your losses" has negative connotations and is generally considered the quickest path to gambler's ruin.

There is a big difference between a disciplined, regimented, recovery staking plan, and a desperate haphazard attempt to chase losses.

I am writing this blog in an attempt to show that a well-executed recovery staking plan can be a profitable tool in a punter's kit.

I'm going to start a thread in the "Betting Blogs And Systems" forum on OLBG  where I'll keep a record of all bets that I have using a recovery staking plan, a

This blog is basically to introduce that and explain the thinking behind it.

A recovery staking plan (RSP from here on) is designed to recoup all past losses with each winning bet, and the best-designed plans will have a target profit included for each bet made.

So that rather than simply breaking even after a winning bet the bank will show a profit for each preceding loss (so a win after 10 losses will have an amount included for each of those 10 losses).

The first and most important point, and in fact the cornerstone, of a successful RSP, is discipline and It can't be stressed enough that self-discipline is the key to a successful plan. 

Further reading on this subject is available via the betting school article on staking plans. 

Losing Streaks

There will be losing streaks that will test the most iron-willed operator of a RSP. 

If discipline (and patience) aren't an issue for you then you have my admiration, and you are probably a successful gambler already, but don't kid yourself. If patience and discipline are issues you haven't dealt with then you will probably be wasting your time with a regimented staking plan.

 I've tried and failed many times myself to operate staking plans, and it has taken me quite a number of years to reach the point where I've got some kind of handle on the discipline aspect of gambling.

There will be losing streaks that will test the most iron-willed operator of a RSP. 

If discipline (and patience) aren't an issue for you then you have my admiration, and you are probably a successful gambler already, but don't kid yourself. If patience and discipline are issues you haven't dealt with then you will probably be wasting your time with a regimented staking plan.

 I've tried and failed many times myself to operate staking plans, and it has taken me quite a number of years to reach the point where I've got some kind of handle on the discipline aspect of gambling.

For me, it's been a bit like repeated failed attempts to give up smoking before finally succeeding and there have been some epic disasters along the way.

I'm not at all confident that I've mastered the art of self-discipline yet, but I am having some sort of success.

So, Discipline and Patience. I'll try not to mention them again.

Stress

The thing that I consider of second most importance in a successful RSP is to take the stress out of the whole exercise by only using money that isn't needed for anything else. 

There's always the possibility that the whole bank will be lost through an extended losing streak. 

A good staking plan will allow for a long run of outs but of course, there are no guarantees that the bank is rock-solid safe. A betting bank can be as large or as small as is comfortable, but the keyword there is "comfortable". 

I've reached a stage where I really don't like the stress of worrying whether my bet wins or loses, and I've found that the stress is related to the amount of money at risk. 

Of course, the idea of betting is to make money, and the only way to do that by gambling is to risk a certain amount, but a good staking plan relies on a slow and steady increase in the bank size, and this slow increase is fairly stress-free, up to a point, and as long as you have faith in your selection system.

There are other bloggers and forum posters on OLBG that have explained the power of compound increases in the betting bank, and that is the idea here. 

As a rough guide, a target of 0.4% of the bank will increase the bank by roughly 10% after 20 bets, and growing your bank by 10% each week will see the bank double in size within approximately 7 weeks.

Taking that further, after a year the bank would double more than 7 times over, and reach approximately 130 times it's starting size. 

That's all well and good and sounds lovely, but is it really possible? 

The staking plan that I'm going to explain on this blog will never actually allow the bank to increase in size by 130 times, because it has a withdrawal point, 

Yes it is possible that with a successful selection system a bank could increase by that amount.

Anyone with an appetite for risk and supreme discipline could feasibly achieve such a result with a selection system that showed a profit at level stakes.

Ok, we've got our bank ready and discipline sorted, so we now have to decide on the target amount for each bet.

It's important that this target is set at a level that is both realistic and safe, yet at the same time allows the bank to grow at a reasonable rate.

An ultra-conservative target can mean boredom sets in, and the amount of work required is more than the reward, while too high a target won't allow for a long enough run of outs. 

Set Targets

I've seen target amounts set as high as 5% of the bank per bet with these plans and this is way too high for mine.

I'm going to start with a target of just 0.4% of the bank with each bet, with a starting bank of 25,000 points. 

This might seem too low to people reading this, but as I showed before, when compounded that 0.4% should grow fairly steadily, and because this RSP is attempting to show a profit for losing bets as well as winning bets, the amounts wagered will rise quite quickly after a moderate run of losses.

25,000 points might seem an excessively high bank, but in fact each point can be as low as 0.01 of any currency, which can mean a starting bank of £250 ($.€). 

Another thing to consider is that it isn't necessarily imperative to have the total bank on hand at the start. 

As long as accurate records are kept I can't see why a staking plan couldn't be started with say 20% of the total bank, and added to when possible or when necessary.

Because I don't use a computer I have to manually calculate the size of each bet, however a lot of people these days use spreadsheets to record and calculate the bets and that would definitely simplify matters.

So what do we bet on? It doesn't matter two bits what we bet on as long as we're getting over the odds. 

Any selection system that shows a profit at level stakes will do, because if it is profitable at level stakes then that means the odds available are "overs". 

No staking system can be profitable over the long term if the selections are under the true odds. Finding selections to bet on is the quest, and this site is as good a place to start as anywhere. 

I've seen threads running on the Betting Systems forum that look promising, including thefivec's horse racing system selections (showing a healthy level stakes profit), the Basketball Points System (amazingly showing a level stakes profit after 40 odd bets at odds of around 1.80!), and I'm sure there are others. 

You could use favourite media tipsters that have a proven record (Hugh Taylor, Tom Segal), or maybe try  OLBG tipsters at the top of the table, or any other decent selection method.

I will be using a range of sources for the selections I back on the thread that I intend to start later today. 

They're fairly reliable selections and are as good as any. I also have a reasonable level of confidence in my own ability to find a value bet and at times my selections will be based on my own opinions.

It's important to have a fairly high strike rate. You don't want long losing runs if possible, although a long losing run can be accommodated if high enough odds are available. 

I like to look for selections that are around the 2/1 and higher mark. Most horse races are won by horses below about 5/1, and if longer odds are taken then impossibly long losing streaks occur.

The rule of thumb that I use for expected losing streaks is to multiply the average odds of my selections by 7. 

So if my average odds are 3.50 (or 5/2), then I would expect a losing streak of about 17-18 (2.5/1 x 7) at some stage. A losing run that long would probably break the bank at those odds and that's always a probability.

Because of the likelihood that a losing run will break the bank at some stage, I am going to add a withdrawal clause to this plan. 

When, or if, the bank reaches 250% of its starting balance I will withdraw the initial 25,000 points, leaving a new start bank of 37,500 points. When and if that bank reaches 250% I will do the same again, and so on.

I started this staking plan yesterday. The initial bet won, and I've shown below how I'll be working this on the other thread. I'll put each selection up before I actually place the bet in future (or immediately after I place the bet)..

This is how it looks at the moment. 

Apologies for the way this is set out. I think I've improved it on the actual thread.

• Starting Bank: 25,000
• Target: 100. (0.4% of Bank)
• Bet @ Odds: 25 @ 5.00
• Result (W/L): W
• New Bank Total: 25,100
• New Target: 101.

If the bet is a loss then the following bet will be of an amount sufficient to cover the previous loss amounts, plus the amount the last bet(s) would have won if successful, plus 0.4% of the bank.

So if the first bet had lost, the amount of the next bet would be enough to win 226 units. 

This will become clearer after a couple of losses and will be easier to explain in real-time as the losses occur.

Any questions, comments or criticism on this plan are welcome. I'll be showing the working of the staking plan on a public forum and putting up the selections before the results are known so it'll be a good way for critics of these plans to be proven correct (or hopefully incorrect). 

Or it may just prove that I need to keep looking for a better selection method because ultimately this will thrive or die on the selection's success rate.

Go to "Betting Blogs and Systems" in the Forum index and look for the thread with the title "Recovery Staking To A Target" for updates and progress.