Reality TV And Specials Betting Advice

Reality TV Betting

Reality TV betting, along with Special events betting, is a growing phenomenon with UK Bookmakers. Reality television first came to mainstream attention in the UK with Big Brother (2000) and since then the floodgates have been well and truly opened. 

Most of the big firms including Ladbrokes, William Hill, and Paddy Power have dedicated tabs on the apps and websites for this type of betting. By offering early odds, they can receive column inches from the tabloids and are then quoted by the TV News media, giving them valuable free publicity. 

Subsequently public interest grows in an event and the bookies can then create more markets around the series.  

Love Island, I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here, Big Brother, Eurovision, Strictly Come Dancing and many more have featured in a range of markets as the bookies look to enhance your interest and attract your cash. 

The OLBG Betting News section will bring you all the breaking reality tv stories along with the latest odds, eliminations, and anything else that will enable you to make good betting decisions.  

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Below are just some of the special betting events that the bookmakers have offered odds for over the last twenty years. 

Reality TV Bookmakers

Most of the bookies embrace reality TV however some do so with more enthusiasm than others, we suspect it comes down to how “bought in” specific bookmakers are. Historically Paddy Power with their unique marketing style have embraced reality tv as this type of show meshes perfectly with their fun approach. Betting Exchange Smarkets are currently our number 1 in the bookies entertainment betting sites table, if you are struggling to find odds on your favourite TV show then go to Smarkets and see if they have reality odds you are after. 

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Reality TV Betting

Does the betting market get it right for Reality TV Betting?

These short priced  reality favourites aren't always bombproof betting propositions. In Big Brother 2007 the twins, Amanda and Sam, were as short as 1/5 in the outright betting for the competition on the final day but were beaten by Brian, the second favourite. It is often best to wait to see if there is late money for an outcome as late money is often knowledgeable money.

In the 2006 X Factor competition, Ben was immediately made hot favourite when the finals began however he didn't even make the final show. Leona Lewis was an easy winner, initially she was third favourite with many. 

Image: SouthernDesign

In 2022 one of the most despised politicians Matt Hancock who had been Health Secretary during the COVID pandemic left the Government to become a contestant on I’m A Celebrity Get Me Out of Here.  His i’m a celeb odds of 33/1 reflected many viewers loathing of the man caught breaking the lockdown guidelines. However he survived the eliminations and ended up in 3rd place after his odds were cut on winning the ITV series  to as low as 3/1. 

Image: ITV

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Elimination Markets

Most reality TV shows have one of the contestants voted off each week or episode. This can often be straightforward as it's not hard to see who is least talented or most disliked. However, there are problems with betting on this market.

In Big Brother the rules are often changed and it is not uncommon for one or two contestants to pick the people up for eviction some weeks. Often, even the most hated housemate might escape nomination.

In X Factor 2006 it was clear that the McDonald Brothers were by far the worst act in the finals yet week after week they defied the odds and progressed to the next round. 

The British public often get behind an underdog. It appeared that most of Scotland were voting for the McDonald Brothers! It became a bit of a joke each week, but not for those who were backing them to be eliminated at short odds. 

Strictly Come Dancing often loses a talented dancer because the voting public do no take a shine to them, add in any tabloid gossip and it will not be long before they are hoofing it back home.

Awards Betting

Another specials market punters like to bet on is awards. Betting can be particularly intensive on the Oscars and the Sports Personality of the Year, but there is betting on many other awards:

• Mercury Music Prize.
• Emmys.
• Baftas.
• Brits.
• Turner Prize.
• Booker Prize.

Oscars

The Oscars are decided upon by a panel. The Oscars normally have some well touted favourites but it seems the Academy often likes to make a point in one or two of their decisions and shock results in some of the major categories are common.

Sports Personality of the Year

As the Sports Personality Award is (currently) decided by phone poll it would be thought not too hard to predict but unexpected results can happen. In 2006 Zara Phillips was a somewhat shock choice, beating hot favourite Darren Clarke. This award ceremony often produces a very short price favourite as one sportsman's achievements are normally head and shoulders above the rest. Common contenders are Captains and influential figures in football, cricket or rugby teams that perform above expectations that year.

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Political Betting

Politics and betting don't normally go hand in hand but there are betting opportunities on the major elections as well as next party leaders. As there are very few candidates in these events it is rare for a favourite not to be very short odds on.

In the General Election there will be odds available for all 650 constituencies but most betting interest will come from the seats that are too close to call or seats where Government Ministers may be in danger. 

Across the globe, an election usually occurs every month of the year. The bigger bookmakers, and we highlight the Betfair sportsbook in this, often have odds available.  

The odds compilers don't normally get these markets wrong so a decent return is only going to usually be made if a very large stake is wagered.

Dangers of Betting on Politics

• These events are often taking a place a few years from when the bet is placed, therefore:
• Money can be tied up for very long periods of time - sometimes a better return could be gained from a high interest savings account
• In the time lapse between bet placed and bet settled anything can happen - war and terrorism are two factors that can majorly influence political opinions and popularity.

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Golden Rules of Specials Betting

Only Bet If You Have an Edge

Specials markets are generally poor betting mediums because there is no form to follow, and punters are essentially guessing or going with gut instinct.

The bookmakers tend to offer large overrounds on specials markets. 

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Bets should only be made if you are able to gain an edge over the bookmaker. The most obvious edge to have would be inside information but that is a luxury very few people have.

Therefore it is important to stick to outcomes that look majorly overpriced. Not all of them are going to win but only one winner every so often should be profitable.

Remember Who Is Voting

Don't forget to view everything from the point of view of the voters or decision makers as this is the key to specials betting.

Many reality TV shows are voted on by teenage girls who send text messages, whereas the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts votes on the Oscars. Bookmakers sometimes underestimate this, and that is when you may be able to make it pay.

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Know The Rules

Unless you fully understand the rules then you cant hope to bet successfully on specials. 

FAQ

Responsible Gambling

If you are new to gambling or a seasoned pro you will need to make sure that you always gamble responsibly. We have a range of articles to assist you with this including the two below.

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Authors

OLBG Betting Experts Jake Ashton and Nigel Skinner created this reality TV and Specials betting article. Information was sourced from the best betting sites and the relevant reality, award and political websites.