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The chances of Chelsea and Liverpool winning the Champions League after their losing starts look very low according to new data.
OLBG has researched Champions League winners’ first game of the season since the reformation of the competition in 1992/1993 - and found that no team has won the competition after losing their first game.
Recent winners of the competition, Liverpool and Chelsea, both struggled in their first games, losing to Napoli and Dinamo Zagreb respectively, and history suggests they won't go on to win the title this season.
Liverpool has the fourth shortest odds to win the Champions League at 9/1, whilst Chelsea are 27/1. Guardiola's Manchester City are favourites to win the competition at 5/2, shortly followed by PSG at 6/1 and holders Real Madrid are 9/1.
Champions League Winners Odds
| Winners | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 5/2 | 28.57% |
| PSG | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| Bayern Munich | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| Real Madrid | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Liverpool | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Barcelona | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| Chelsea | 25/1 | 3.85% |
While most teams begin their run to winning the Champions League title with a win, some teams have drawn their first games of the European competition, including the 99’ treble United winning team who drew versus Barcelona 3-3.
Chelsea were the last team to draw their first game of the group stage and win the Champions League when they drew to Sevilla in 2020 before beating City in the final.
“Liverpool are fourth in the market to win the Champions League at 9/1 and Chelsea are 27/1, but history shows you need to be at your best from the start if you want a chance to win this elite trophy - which is not the case for these two English sides.”
UEFA Champions League Winners Opening Game Results
Not a single Champions League winner has ever lost the opening game of the campaign, signaling records required for either Liverpool or Chelsea to succeed in the competition in 22/23
| Year | Winners | First Game Result |
|---|---|---|
| 21/22 | Real Madrid | 1-0 v Inter |
| 20/21 | Chelsea | 0-0 v Sevilla |
| 19/20 | Bayern Munich | 3-0 v Red Star |
| 18/19 | Liverpool | 3-2 v PSG |
| 17/18 | Real Madrid | 3-0 v APOEL |
| 16/17 | Real Madrid | 2-1 v Sporting Lisbon |
| 15/16 | Real Madrid | 4-0 v Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 14/15 | Barcelona | 1-0 v APOEL |
| 13/14 | Real Madrid | 6-1 v Galatasaray |
| 12/13 | Bayern Munich | 2-1 v Valencia |
| 11/12 | Chelsea | 2-0 v Bayern Leverkusen |
| 10/11 | Barcelona | 5-1 v Panathinaikos |
| 09/10 | Inter Milan | 0-0 v Barcelona |
| 08/09 | Barcelona | 3-1 Sporting Lisbon |
| 07/08 | Manchester United | 1-0 v Sporting Lisbon |
| 06/07 | AC Milan | 3-0 v AEK Athens |
| 05/06 | Barcelona | 2-0 v Werder Bremen |
| 04/05 | Liverpool | 2-0 v Monaco |
| 03/04 | Porto | 1-1 v Partizan |
| 02/03 | AC Milan | 2-1 v Lens |
| 01/02 | Real Madrid | 2-1 v AS Roma |
| 00/01 | Bayern Munich | 3-1 v Helsingborg |
| 99/00 | Real Madrid | 3-3 v Olympiacos |
| 98/99 | Manchester United | 3-3 v Barcelona |
| 97/98 | Real Madrid | 4-1 v Rosenborg |
| 96/97 | Borussia Dortmund | 2-1 v Widzew Lodz |
| 95/96 | Juventus | 3-1 v Borussia Dortmund |
| 94/95 | Ajax | 2-0 v AC Milan |
| 93/94 | AC Milan | 1-0 v FC Aarau |
| 92/93 | Marseille | 5-0 v Glentoran |
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