Premier League Average Positions - Who Are The Real Big 6

MANCHESTER IS RED

Especially when you consider that the Etihad outfit has spent time in the wilderness of the second and third tiers in the past three decades and while that was happening, their crosstown rivals were ruling the roost.

Not only that, but Manchester United is one of six teams that have never suffered relegation from the Premier League and when looking at the average finishing positions of each of these half dozen, here is how things shape up.

As you can see it is the Old Trafford outfit that has the best average finishing position in Premier League history, and this can largely be explained by the 13 titles that were won under the leadership of Sir Alex Ferguson. 

With an average finish of 2.45, they are more than one and a half positions better than Arsenal and with the North Londoners being one of three clubs that sit between fourth and fifth in terms of average finishes, the moniker of best of the rest is certainly up for grabs.

Although Arsenal earned three Premier League crowns in seven seasons between 1998 and 2004, they have been in the title wilderness since and with Liverpool and Chelsea not all that far behind, the current trajectory suggests a change in ranking is not all that far away.

With Liverpool and Chelsea also averaging a finishing position of less than fifth, they have managed to put some distance between themselves and Tottenham and although the white half of North London has done well to bring their average down, it is still five whole places more than Manchester United.

Because even Tottenham have had regular dalliances in the Champions League in recent times, their first 10 years in the Premier League were a decade to forget and only since the arrival of ENIC, have bottom-half finishes been a thing of the past.

Then again, Everton will be happy that their bottom half finish was not one that saw them in 18th just a few months ago and because of that previous terrible campaign at Goodison Park, their average finish has now increased to 10.61.

This now means after such a nervy showing during the 2022/23 season, Everton are now on average a bottom-half team and the prospect of breaking the Premier League’s proverbial glass ceiling now seems miles away.

THE DEFENDING CHAMPIONS

With us now getting an idea of what the average finishing positions look like for our group of ever-presents, here are the 10 lowest average finishes of all time.

Here the previous group of six are joined by the quintet of Manchester City, Newcastle, Blackburn, Leeds, and Aston Villa but there is one glaring omission and that comes in the shape of Everton who are now outside of the top 10.

Sean Dyche’s men may have stayed up on the final day of the season, but they have since been surpassed by an Aston Villa side who secured European football and have since improved their average finish to 10.43.

As for Manchester City, they have won five league titles in the past six years; they are only 0.29 better off than Tottenham in terms of overall average finishes. Then again, when you consider the ability of Pep Guardiola’s men, they will be more likely to eye up Chelsea in fourth. 

Of course, that arguably says more about City’s current dominance and with them playing five Premier League seasons less than their North London counterparts, they have certainly made up for lost time in recent years.

While one interesting parallel is that of Tottenham and Everton, many have believed that these two clubs have possessed a decent amount of symmetry in the Premier League era – if only because they have been in the shadow of their nearest neighbours for quite some time.

Tottenham are aiming to return to the ascendency under new manager Ange Postecoglou and any finish that is seventh or less will be heralded as success. The same when looking at the numbers 17 or above could be said for Everton at the end of this season. 

A SMALLER SAMPLE

Image: shutterstock

Another thing to consider is the fact that 30 years’ worth of data will tell one story but perhaps it does not tell you the correct one and therefore, a trimming of our statistical sample may stand us in good stead here.

Therefore, we will look at average finishing positions from 2010/11 onwards and see just what differences we can find to the tables above. 

As you can see things are now a lot different and whereas Manchester United were top of the pile previously, they have now been usurped by their neighbours in blue. While in addition to this, Manchester City’s average finishing position is less than 2.00.

1.77 to be exact and with so many Premier League titles coming their way in the past decade, it is obvious why Pep Guardiola’s men are currently head and shoulders above the rest of their top-flight counterparts.

While another interesting point here is the fact that Manchester United and Chelsea did have the exact same average finish of 3.75 since the 2010/11 season. Although with contrasting fortunes during the 2022/23 campaign, the Red Devils have now pulled clear in second.

Chelsea’s dreadful showing has only tightened the bunch between themselves in third and Tottenham in sixth. There is just 0.39 of a position’s difference between a group that also includes Liverpool and Arsenal, it just highlights how tight the race for a top four finish will always be.

Of course, Arsenal have managed to put some daylight between themselves and their North London rivals Tottenham. The situation would have been helped by finishing second in last season’s Premier League, continue that trajectory and both Chelsea and Liverpool will be there for the taking. 

Beyond the big six, it is all change and after Leicester’s incredible title-winning season of 2016, the Foxes now find themselves with an average finish of 9.00 since the end of the 2010/11 season. However, their average was only increased after suffering relegation to the Championship.

While Everton has made a slight improvement on their all-time offering at 9.62 but just like Leicester above, their average was actually increased due to such a poor showing during the duration of the 2022/23 campaign.

As for the rest of the top 10, Brentford’s two season’s in the Premier League have averaged out at an 11th place finish. While European qualifiers West Ham and Newcastle have to make sure with sharing 10th in this list with an average of 11.58.

ALL EYES ON AUGUST

Another way to provide further context to this data is by looking at the 20 Premier League clubs that are going to embark on the 2022/23 season and see how each of them currently performs from an average finish point of view.

The one outlier that we first need to point out, is that Luton enter the dataset with an average of 0.00. With no Premier League history to call upon just yet, the newly promoted side will be hoping that their first entry is not 18 or above.

While their two promotion counterparts would certainly be happy in maintaining the averages that they currently have Burnley and Sheffield United may be towards the bottom of the list, neither would have any arguments with a 15th and 16th place finish respectively. 

Burnley currently share their average of 15.00 with Nottingham Forest and after staying up at the end of the 2022/23 campaign, Steve Cooper’s men must be careful that they do not succumb to second syndrome season this time around.

The same will be said of both Fulham and Bournemouth. On average the are currently one and two positions better off than that of Forest and if they delivered 13th and 14th at the end of this upcoming season, the champagne corks will certainly be popping in West London and Dorset.

Brighton are another team that have an average finish of 13th, but you get that feeling that this number is soon going to lower and if the Seagulls make European expeditions a regular occurrence, expect their average finish to be a lot closer to 10.00

Whether there is a real correlation between 2023/24 finishes and previous average rankings remains to be seen. Then again, it is going to be a whole lot of fun analysing the fortunes of each of the 20 clubs involved.

Editorial Information

This article was researched and fact-checked by Dan Tracey who also then added the words - Dan is a multi-talented writer, data analyst and podcaster whose six-year career in the sports data sphere has seen incredible successes. From helping UEFA create their annual technical reports to writing articles for Sports Betting Websites, including sites like TheLinesUS and Goal 

Data correct as of 1st August 2023 – Source: Wikipedia.

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