ARQ007
Travelled Man of Kent. Likes: cars, sport, eating out, working out, conversation, travel, gambling, short-sleeve shirts. All teeth my own.
0
Estimated Prizes
this month
£0
Estimated Prize money
this month
ARQ007's Tips History
02 May 2024
18:35 6:35 Punchestown
Da Capo Glory
Daily Racing
25 EW
@26.00
Lose
-50
I just feel Padraig Butler’s 7yo Fame And Glory gelding is over-priced here given there's 6 places on offer. He's kept good company throughout his career - third to El Fabiolo in a novices’ hurdle over 2m at this meeting in 2022, second to Grangeclare West here 12 months ago over 2m 4f then beating Ash Tree Meadow over that C&D the following month. Also a good fifth to Fils D’oudairies in the Grimes Hurdle over 2m in July then decent efforts this side of Christmas. Steps up to this trip for the first time, which his running style suggests will suit. Being out of an Oscar mare also bodes well for him on better ground. Has a solid record at the track, having run well here at this festival the last three years in a meeting connections seem to target, so worth a small each-way punt.
18:00 6:00 Punchestown
Lantry Lady
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
Interesting that Rachael Blackmore picks this 6yo mare who’s had just the 3 runs (2 wins and she acquitted herself well in the last run when 4th in the Mares at the Cheltenham festival) and steps up in trip here. That shouldn’t be an issue given she’s from the Annie Power family and in receipt of weight, could be a threat on suitable ground.
Teahupoo
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
45
Difficult to oppose Gordon Elliott’s Masked Marvel gelding here on these terms, the 7yo rated some 9 pounds above his nearest rival and in superb form this season having won the Hatton Grace and at the Cheltenham festival. He’d prefer some more juice in the ground but should still get the job done here.
16:50 4:50 Punchestown
Birchdale
Daily Racing
25 EW
@6.50
Lose
-50
Enda Bolger’s 10yo son of Jeremy is pretty consistent and usually a solid jumper, his only mishap of late caused when he was hampered. Has won at this track over 3m so the step up to 4m is rather new territory but the same could be said for several here. I think he has the class to be competitive.
Coko Beach
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.38
Lose
-50
Gordon Elliott’s likeable grey is a very consistent performer and very versatile. He’s looked in good heart this campaign and ran well in the Cross Country to score here in February and one can forgive his run in the Aintree Grand National LTO. Top rated here by some margin and whilst that comes with a burden, he’ll stay longer than the In-Laws so with Jack Kennedy aboard and his class I feel he’s the one to beat.
16:15 4:15 Punchestown
Blood Destiny
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-50
The Mullins juggernaut continues and this 5yo No Risk At All gelding ??" who was a smart hurdler ??" has 2 wins from his 4 runs over fences, both defeats to Spillanes Tower (whom he’s also beaten once). Won the Flyingbolt at Navan (16f) in March and wasn’t at his best at Fairyhouse over a longer trip since but steps backdown to 2m here on handicap bow with what looks a workable mark, Paul Townend aboard
Enniskerry
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Win
45
Taking a chance with Barry Connell’s son of Jeremy who’s not had much racing for a 10yo. But what he’s done has been of a very decent calibre and reads well in the light of a handicap like this one, with 2 wins from 4 starts, one PU and a respectable performance over an unsuitable trip when last seen in a Grade 3. Clearly a few risks involved given the 274 days absence and his lack of mileage but that’s factored into the price & trainer is a shrewd placer of his horses.
15:00 Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys
Madison Keys 6.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-50
So this has not been a great match-up for keys (ranked 20), but the 29yo American seems to have hit a patch of form here in Madrid and whilst clay wouldn’t be her “favourite” she has racked up some decent results in Charleston and at Roland Garros in her career and faster conditions here (600m+ of altitude) help her “power” game. The best way to trouble world #1 Swiatek is to rush her (as Keys did in her only win against the 22yo Pole, in Cincy on fast outdoor hard 2 years ago) and that’s possible here, as Haddad Maia did in Set 1 of their match LTO. Swiatek has such a great record in SFs (19-9 since 2022, 6-1 on clay) but Rybakina beat her on clay in also-quick conditions indoors in Stuttgart last month. If Keys is on her game she can make this a test. But clearly a risk given the number!
14:00 Alize Cornet vs Fiona Ferro
Fiona Ferro
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.62
Lose
-50
It’s never a great idea to put too much store into a H2H, especially of just 2 matches, but the fact that Ferro (ranked 154) has won both her career match-ups with compatriot Cornet (ranked 107) swayed me. Ferro has by far better numbers on clay (as here in St. Malo) having gone 36-27 on dirt since 2022, 32-15 vs opponents ranked 100+. The 27yo French woman grabbed an excellent win in her first match here vs a decent yardstick in Lauren Davis, Former world #11 Cornet is on her farewell tour, the 37yo veteran announcing she’ll retire after Roland Garros. Her game relies on tenacity and mobility and the latter just isn’t there anymore. She’d lost 8 straight until beating a qualifier ranked #621 LTO here and I think she’ll struggle today.
09:30 Lea Boskovic vs Magdalena Frech
Magdalena Frech
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.22
Win
11
Frech (ranked 51) is pretty decent on clay, the 26yo from Poland is 22-19 on the dirt since 2022, but 14-4 in that span vs opponents ranked outside the top 100. Boskovic (ranked 216) is 1-4 career vs top 100 ranked opposition, and has never played a top 100 player on clay before. Her win here LTO vs #366 ranked Siskova was her first match on clay at "main" WTA tour level (this is just a 125 ranked event).
Subtotal-249
01 May 2024
20:30 Taylor Fritz vs Francisco Cerundolo
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.85
Win
43
These two have played just once before and that was also on clay, at Roland garros last year, when world #13 Fritz won teh first set but ultimately Cerundolo (ranked 22) triumphed. But it was a close match, as i'd expect this to be, and with both players serving well here in Madrid (with it's 600m+ of altitude) and both in decent form - taking out some stiff opposition on Tuesday - I'd expect this to go Over.
16:50 4:50 Punchestown
William Munny
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 7.00 used instead of 5.00 takenBOG
@7.00
Win
5
Barry Connell's 6yo Westerner gelding is very well-bred and is two from two in impressive fashion. He beat a Mullns prospect FTO then showed very useful turn of foot to win on second run, quickening clear in ready style at Naas a couple of months ago. Definite player upped in grade.
16:45 4:45 Wolverhampton
Spanish Angel
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 4.50 on 30/04 at 22:540.20 deduction for Howzak@5.00 withdrawn at 16:49R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 3.50 x (1-0.20) = 3.80Best Odds Guaranteed SP 5.00 used instead of 3.80 BOG
@5.00
Win
125
Ruth Carr's 7yo Gutaifan gelding is a C&D winner (had 3 wins from 18 runs last year) and has performed with credit on his three runs so far since his return from a break, despite some poor luck in running/some interference. Was a decent third of 10 in a handicap over C&D 27 days ago and is dropped another pound here so now 5 pounds below his LWM.
15:40 3:40 Punchestown
No Flies On Him
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.00
Lose
-50
This 5yo Westerner gelding won his sole start in PtPs and then made a winning debut for his new connections at Leopardstown on St Stephen's Day. Just didn't get home when a distant seventh of 11 to Captain Cody in the Easter Festival Novices' Hurdle at Fairyhouse (20f, heavy) 31 days ago but that was after finishing second to Tullyhill here over 2m in a Listed heat. This is a drop in level and he should be bang there.
15:05 3:05 Punchestown
Answer To Kayf
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 3.75 used instead of 3.25 takenBOG
@3.75
Lose
-12
It's not often one stands in front of the Willie Mullins juggernaut but I will here with this 8yo Kayf Tara gelding who made the most of a drop to a lower grade when doubling his tally over hurdles at Naas (19.1f) in February then improved again when fourth in the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival. Still looks fairly treated, a decent 7 pound claimer aboard (who has ridden him on his last 6 runs) and should be bang there.
14:30 Clara Burel vs Zeynep Sonmez
Clara Burel
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Burel (ranked 44) was picked for the French BJK Cup team recently because of her prowess on clay (they chose to play the tie vs GB on the red stuff - which backfired!). The 23yo is 19-11 on dirt since last year. She beat Sonmez (ranked 161) in Brisbane (outdoor hard) earlier this year and on home "ground" here in St.Malo I'd expect her to win again.
12:00 Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Mayar Sherif
Mayar Sherif
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.44
Win
22
This tip to me simply comes down to the fact that Sherif (ranked 72) is - I believe - a far better clay court player than Sasnovich (ranked 109). The 27yo Egyptian bases her season around the clay courts and in 2023 she went 24-10 ion the dirt. By contrast her 30yo Belarussian oponent was just 3-5 on the red stuff.
12:00 Nuria Parrizas Diaz vs Ana Bogdan
Over 20.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.87
Lose
-50
I just feel that this total is too low. Parrizas-Diaz (ranked 133) is a really decent clay courter and although the 32yo Spaniard isn't in great form, her performances have been better than the bare results would suggest. Bogdan (ranked 64) is also a solid clay court player but is also not in great form at present.
Nuria Parrizas Diaz 4.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-50
I just feel that this is too many games to give a head start. Parrizas-Diaz (ranked 133) is a really decent clay courter and although the 32yo Spaniard isn't in great form, her performances have been better than the bare results would suggest. Bogdan (ranked 64) is also a solid clay court player but is also not in great form at present.
08:00 Camila Osorio vs Mirjam Bjorklund
Camila Osorio
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.44
Void
0
Bjorklund is a decent enough player on clay but the 25yo Swede is playing just her fifth match after 8 months away from tennis, recovering from a foot injury and neck surgery. Now ranked #280 (her career high is #123), she has "won" 2 of her matches, but both were against teenagers (one unranked) and one opponent retired. Against WTA veteran pro Hercog (ranked 177) she lost 1-6,1-6 in a similar Portuguese clay ITF event. In Osorio (ranked 63) won her home event in Bogota at ths atart of the month and the 22yo Colombian kept it close vs Danilovic in Madrid Qualies recently, the latter went on to win 2 more matches vs decent yardsticks (Burel, Niemeier) before taking world #15 and winner in Miami + Charleston Colins to a decider. Osorio (12-4 on clay in the past 12 months vs players ranked 50+) really should win this one.
Subtotal53
30 April 2024
17:00 Felix Auger Aliassime vs Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
A look at just a couple of stats here should tell you where this is going. Since 2022, Auger Aliassime (ranked 35) is 5-7 on clay vs opponents inside the top 50. In that same time period, world #6 Ruud is 33-11 on clay vs top 50 ranked opponents, 4-5 vs top 10 opposition. The 25yo from Norway made the final in Monte Carlo then beat his vanquisher there, Tsitsipas, to take the Barcelona title. He’s won both matches here in Madrid in straight sets and the level of opposition that FAA has beaten to get here doesn’t suggest he’s really raised his level in what’s been a mediocre season so far for the 23yo Canadian.
14:25 2:25 Brighton
Poetic Force
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
A small risk on Tony Carroll's 10yo Lope de Vega gelding who's not getting any younger but likes it here at Brighton (a former C&D winner and his last 4 runs here read 30123). He had 4 wins from 18 runs last year and ran into a decent fourth of 10 in a handicap at Lingfield (8f, AW) 39 days agoHe runs off a 4 lb lower mark on turf and has a 7 pound claimer in teh sadlle.
11:30 Hubert Hurkacz vs Taylor Fritz
Over 25.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
A huge number but I’ll chance the Overs here as the last three sets that these two big servers have played in their H2Hs have been TBs, and the one prior to that was 7-5. Both have served well here in Madrid, no surprise given the 600m+ of altitude. It’s a daytime match so conditions will increase speed, and I think breaks will be tough to find.
11:30 Iga Swiatek vs Beatriz Haddad Maia
Iga Swiatek to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
95 WIN
@1.29
Lose
-95
Although I feel Haddad Maia (ranked 14) can test world #1 Swiatek here (see my Games Total and Games Won tips write ups), the fact is that clay is Swiatek’s domain. The 20yo Pole is an astounding 42-4 on clay since 2022 and 37 of her wins were in straight sets and she’s 14-3 vs top 20 opponents.
Over 18.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.20
Win
60
Haddad Maia (ranked 14) has had a pretty average season so far but the 27yo Brazilian has looked good here in Madrid and the altitude gives her shots a bit of extra zip. This is a day match so conditions will help her there too and the only way to really pressure world #1 Swiatek is to rush her ??" and faster conditions help. Their only 2 meetings in WTA tour matches have seen Haddad Maia take the total beyond this number, incl. at Roland Garros last year in conditions that favour Swiatek, when they played a second set TB, so I like Overs here.
Beatriz Haddad Maia 6.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
As per my Games Total tip (see separate write up), I think conditions are in favour of Haddad Maia (ranked 14) here in Madrid (day match, sunny, 600m+ of altitude) and she’s caused world #1 Swiatek some issues in the past ??" in fact she beat her in their first ever encounter on outdoor hard in Toronto in 2022. I think she keeps this close.
Subtotal-235
29 April 2024
18:00 Flavio Cobolli vs Karen Khachanov
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Cobolli (ranked 64) didn’t start his clay season especially well but 2 decent wins here in Madrid and the 21yo Italian has served pretty well in these quick conditions (for clay) in Madrid (where we have 600m+ of altitude, which gives the ball some zip!). Both his wins here thus far took a deciding set, as it did for Khachanov (ranked 17) in his match vs Bautista-Agut. Both men won over 74% of first serve points LTO and they’ve never played one another before, which always makes me lean to Overs.
13:30 Mirra Andreeva vs Jasmine Paolini
Jasmine Paolini
Win Match
50 WIN
@2.05
Lose
-50
I understand that Andreva (ranked 43) is a very good up-and-coming talent but the 17yo Russian is still pretty green in some regards and although she’s 7-6 career vs top 20 players, she’s been a little flattered in some of those matches by her opponents really not playing their best. And it’s notable that she’s just 2-7 at the R16 stage of events in her career (0-2 in QFs) with her 2 wins vs lower ranked opposition. Understandable given her age and associated pressures. Paolini (ranked 13) is having her best ever season and the 28yo Italian looking like she’s enjoying life. She’s 16-8 this season, with a Masters 1000 title in Dubai and her only clay loss so far in a decider vs eventual winner Rybakina in Stuttgart. She pretty much dismantled Garcia in straight sets here LTO and is 17-5 on clay in the past 12 months vs players ranked 20+. I just think she’s a better chance to win here than the odds suggest.
Over 21.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.85
Win
43
Andreva (ranked 43) is a very good up-and-coming talent and the 17yo Russian is playing well here but she’s still green in some regards and although she’s 7-6 career vs top 20 players, she’s just 2-7 at R16 stage of events in her career (0-2 in QFs), both wins vs lower ranked opponents - understandable given her youth and associated pressures. And she’s gone over this number in 6 of those 9 matches, playing a decider 4 times. Paolini (ranked 13) is having her best ever season, the 28yo Italian is 16-8 with a Masters 1000 title in Dubai, her only clay loss so far in a decider vs eventual winner Rybakina in Stuttgart. She is 7-2 on clay at R16 stage since 2022, but 7 of those matches went over this number (6 went to a decider, 3 included a TB set). I think this will be tight and like Overs.
Subtotal-57
28 April 2024
16:30 Tommy Paul vs Francisco Cerundolo
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.80
Win
40
I Have to take a shot at this line because all 4 prior matches between Paul (ranked 16) and Cerundolo (ranked 22) have gone to a decider and they've played 4 TB sets in those 12 sets of tennis. Admittedly all 4 H2Hs have been played on grass or hard courts but it's pretty quick conditions here in Madrid on clay (600m+ of altitude) and it loosk a bit sunnier today which will speed things up.
Subtotal40
27 April 2024
19:00 Coco Gauff vs Dayana Yastremska
Over 18.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
I just feel that this line is an over-reaction to world #3 Gauff's 6-0,6-0 win over Rus here LTO. I just think Rus got caught in the headlights and it's worth noting the 20yo American doesn't have the best pedigree here in Madrid where the ball flies pretty fast. That will help Yastremska (ranked 34) and whilstthe 23yo Ukrainian can be a bit wild (see her 0-6 first set loss LTO), now she's acclimatised to the conditions here I think she'll make this a test.
Dayana Yastremska 6.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.73
Lose
-50
I just feel that this line is an over-reaction to world #3 Gauff's 6-0,6-0 win over Rus here LTO. I just think Rus got caught in the headlights and it's worth noting the 20yo American doesn't have the best pedigree here in Madrid where the ball flies pretty fast. That will help Yastremska (ranked 34) and whilstthe 23yo Ukrainian can be a bit wild (see her 0-6 first set loss LTO), now she's acclimatised to the conditions here I think she'll keep this close.
15:00 Bradford v Newport County
Bradford
50 WIN
@1.33
Win
17
Ninth placed Bradford have been in electric form of late, and they know that a win here - and other results going their way - could sneak them into the play offs. The Bantams have won 5 of their last 6 games and face a Newport side in 17th place who have nothing to play for - which is lucky because they have lost their last 6 games!
12:30 Derby v Carlisle
Derby
76 WIN
@1.22
Win
17
A win here for second placed Derby seals automatic promotion back to the Championship and against a Carlisle team that's bottom of the league and already relegated, that's surely going to happen in front of an expectant home crowd. The Rams have won 14 of 22 at home this season (W14,D4,L4) whilst the visitors have teh worst away record in the division, just 4 wins on the road this term (W4,D3,L15).
Subtotal-66
26 April 2024
20:30 Danielle Collins vs Olga Danilovic
Danielle Collins
Win Match
93 WIN
@1.20
Win
19
It wasn't a great clay swing for Collins (ranked 15) last year but the 30yo American - on her farewell tour - was in poor form last season in general due to the health issues that have led her to retire. But she won the tournament in Charleston when last seen and whilst that's teh US version of the dirt, she does have a decent pedigree on the European red version. She's 20-9 on clay since 2022, 13-4 vs players ranked 50+. She's npt got a great record here in Madrid but her 2 defeats were to former world #4 Andreescu and to Ash Barty (then world #9). Danilovic (ranked 122) is probably at her best on clay (41-22 on dirt since 2022) but the 23yo Serbian has made it out of Qualies here first time in her career. Whilst she does have clay titles at lower level events, she's played just 2 matches in her career on clay vs top 20 opposition. But Collins - especially her in the thin air of Madrid - should have too many weapons for her opponent here.
19:00 Borna Coric vs Alexander Zverev
Alexander Zverev
Win Match
70 WIN
@1.22
Win
15
Although I think Coric (ranked 34) can give World #5 Zverev problems (see separate Games Total and Games Won write ups) - the career H2H is 3-3 and only two of those have been decided in straight sets - the fact is that Zverev always doed well here in Madrid. It's an event he's won twice and also lost in a final. And he's 17-2 in the past 12 months vs players ranked outside the top 20.
Over 21.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-50
Coric (ranked 34) has given World #5 Zverev issues over the years, as is reflected in the 3-3 career H2H (and only 2 of those have been decided in straight sets, one on grass which Zverev - who lost - doesn't do well on). I like Zverev to do well here in Madrid - an event he's won twice and lost in a final - but he's a notoriously slow starter in tournaments whilst Coric has a match under his belt.
Borna Coric 4.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.67
Lose
-50
As per my Games Total tip (see separare write up) we know that Coric (ranked 34) has given World #5 Zverev problems over the years, the career H2H is 3-3 and only two of those have been decided in straight sets (one on grass which Zverev - who lost - doesn't like). I like Zverev to do well here in Madrid - an event he's won twice and lost in a final - but he's a notoriously slow starter in tournaments whilst Coric has a match under his belt.
18:00 Jaume Munar vs Jan Lennard Struff
Jan Lennard Struff
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.53
Win
26
The issue for Munar (ranked 73) here is that the 26yo Spaniard just doesn’t break serve often enough, even on clay, and now in Struff (ranked 24) he faces a player in form with a big serve. The 34yo German has just won his first main level ATP event at home in Munich so will be on a high and he made the final here in Madrid last season, where the 600m+ of altitude gives his serve a bit more zip. He saved 10 of 14 BPs faced in Munich where it was cold and damp, that will be tougher for Munar to deal with here. Munar is just 2-5 vs top 50 opponents in the last 12 months on clay and I’ll go Struff here.
17:05 5:05 Cork
Stromberg
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
Joseph O’Brien’s 104 rated 3yo Ifraaj colt has 2 wins from 4 runs last year and was certainly not disgraced in his final run when a 3.75 lengths fifth in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh (8f, soft). First run back after 7 months and up in trip but that should suit, yard in good form and this a drop in grade
17:00 Mariano Navone vs Holger Rune
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.10
Win
55
Another match where I've missed the best line (21.5) but I'll take a shot at this number at Odds Against. I think world #12 Rune is being given too much credit here, the 20yo Dane has rather struggled of late and is certainly not winning-easy very often. He's also only played 2 matches here in his career, both last season (he got a bye to R2), and both of those went to a decider (and saw 3 TBs and a 7-5 set). Navone (ranked 41) is having a good season, the 23yo Argentine is 20-7 on clay already and practically dismantled Popyrin here in R1. He shpuld make this a test.
14:40 2:40 Perth
Stoke The Fire
Daily Racing
90 WINNAP
@1.22
Win
19
Hard to oppose the Mullins juggernaut at present and he’s clearly sent this well bred Flat maiden over to continue his tilt at the UK Trainer’s championship. Won a maiden hurdle at Tramore and not disgraced in decent heats the last twice, and should be too good for the rivals here
Tommys Law
Daily Racing
25 EW
@5.00
Lose
-5
Lucinda Russell’s 5yo Kingston Hill gelding shaped like a stayer when filling the runner-up spot in both his Irish PtPs and showed an action which lends itself to nicer conditions. He stepped up on previous Rules efforts when failing by a whisker in an Ayr maiden hurdle (2m, good to soft) last month. Should be thereabouts.
13:00 Hubert Hurkacz vs Jack Draper
Over 24.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
I'm not over the moon about this number (I missed 23.5) but at Evens it's the value option and likely reflects the scheduling for this match, on Stadium 3 at La Caja Mágica. That's pretty much an indoor arena so with the altitude in Madrid (600m+) it's fast for a clay event. We have 2 big servers. World #9 Hurkacz has a masive serve, the tall 27yo Pole renowned for his big delivery and even on clay he uses that weapon effectively. He's equally not great at returning and in his last 11 matches on dirt he's played, 6 have seen a TB and 3 have seen a TB. One of those matches that saw a TB was earlier this month in Monte Carlo when he beat Draper (ranked 43) in a decidng set TB, a match that mirrored their meeting at the same venue last year, which Hurkcz won 6-3,6-7,7-5. The 22yo Brit also has a big serve and faced just 3 BPs in his opening match here vs Kokkinakis, and he saved 2 of those. In his 2 prior matches on clay (Munich) he faced just 3 BPs in total.
11:30 Daniel Altmaier vs Arthur Fils
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.85
Lose
-50
As per my Games Won tip, a small risk on teh Overs here as I can't see Fils having this all his own way, nor either player winning easily. Altmaier (ranked 61) likes these conditions in Madrid (pretty quick with 600m of altitude, high bouncing) and the 25yo German made the QFs (via Qualies) in his only prior visit last year. He lost to Fils (ranked 32) in Barcelona last week but it's very different conditions here and the 19yo Frenchman can be so up and down in his level, as you'd expect from one so young. Plus he's yet to play a match here this year (and has played just 2 in his career, both in Qualies last season), so it could take a while for the "better" player to acclimatise.
Daniel Altmaier
1st Set Winner
50 WIN
@2.30
Win
65
Altmaier (ranked 61) likes these conditions in Madrid (pretty quick with 600m of altitude, high bouncing) and the 25yo German made the QFs (via Qualies) in his only prior visit last year. He lost to Fils (ranked 32) in Barcelona last week but it's very different conditions here and the 19yo Frenchman can be so up and down in his level, as you'd expect from one so young. Plus he's yet to play a match here this year (and has played just 2 in his career, both in Qualies last season), so it could take a while for him to get acclimatised to conditions. Altmaier has a win here already and has played more matches here so I'm hoping he can put that to good use early.
Daniel Altmaier 2.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.87
Win
44
I'll take Altmaier (ranked 61) here with a head start as the 25yo German likes these conditions in Madrid (pretty quick with 600m of altitude, high bouncing) and he made the QFs (via Qualies) in his only prior visit last year. He lost to Fils (ranked 320 in Barcelona but it's very different conditions here and he's quoted as saying "I lost to Fils last week but I'm really looking forward to playing him in these conditions". The 19yo Frenchman can be so up and down in his level, as you'd expect from one so young, and he's yet to play a match here this year (and has played just 2 in his career, both in Qualies last season). So I'll take Altmaier, who came good for me in R1, to beat this number.
Subtotal-12
25 April 2024
20:00 Go Ahead Eagles v Feyenoord
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
Second placed Feyenoord have scored 77 goals goals in their 30 Eredivisie matches so far this season, averaging well over 2 per game (and they've scored 35 in their 15 away games). Hosts GAE have scored 30 and conceded 17 goals in their 15 home games so far and I think we'll see goals here.
17:45 Heerenveen v PSV
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.36
Win
18
Table-toppers PSV have netted an incredible 95 goals in their 30 Eredivisie matches so far this season, averaging over 3 per game and have actually scored more on their travels than at home (48 to 47). Hosts Heerenveen have conceded 25 goals in their 15 home games so far (and have scored 29) so it looks like an Overs deal to me here!
16:00 Alex Michelsen vs Joao Fonseca
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
Michelsen (ranked 70) may not have much of a clay pedigree, the 19yo American is just 5-6 on the dirt since January last year, and his experience on European red clay is pretty limited at this level. That said he took a set off of Garin in Munich (in a TB) last week in slower conditions than here in Madrid, where thanks to the altitude it's fairly quick. The Michelsen serve is a huge weapon and I doubt Fonseca (ranked 242) has faced many like it, especially in these faster conditions. The 17yo Brazilian is a talent but has limited experience at this level and is very hit-and-miss (as you may expect from a 17yo!), This match could swing several times so i like Overs here.
15:45 3:45 Warwick
Omaha Wish
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Win
30
Unusual to see (certainly at present) a Skelton horse at double figure odds, given the yard is in good form and the Trainer is still (wistfully, perhaps) chasing the trainers crown, but this one is making his chase debut here. However, that's clearly factored into the price. But this 6yo Night Wish mare won her only Irish PtP and has made the frame in a trio of hurdles this term (third of 7 on handicap debut at Fakenham, 16f) earlier this month). It's interesting she's put into a handicap on chase debut, so taking a punt with 4 places on offer.
15:35 3:35 Perth
Rambo T
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.00 used instead of 3.75 takenBOG
@4.00
Win
90
Olly Murphy's 7yo Ocovango gelding nabbed his second success of the season when seeing off Irish Hill at Newbury (20.5f, soft) over Christmas in a Class 2 event off of a 23 pound higher mark than today (he runs off 130 today). Two decent runs since, incl. in the Class 1 Coral Cup at the Festival (eighth), and back down in grade has a big shout on suitable ground.
13:00 Coco Gauff vs Arantxa Rus
Coco Gauff to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Whilst I do feel Rus (ranked 47) will make this a test for world #3 Gauff (as per my Games Won and Totals tips, see separate write ups), Gauff is 16-6 on clay since 2022 vs players ranked outside the top 20, with 12 such wins in straight sets, and she will try to get over her disappointing exit in Stuttgart LTO.
Over 18.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
As per my Games Won tip (see separate write up) I do feel Rus (ranked 47) can make this a test for World #3 Gauff, especially as the 33yo Dutch player has a win under her belt already in Madrid and her 20yo American opponent is playing her first match here. It’s quick in Madrid (altitude) and that means Gauff can be rushed, so this looks a low number.
Arantxa Rus 6.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.73
Lose
-50
I maybe way off here but a head start of 6.5 games for a player who’s very much at home on the clay seems generous, especially as Rus (ranked 47) took out the likes of Anisimova and played Sakkari close here last year. The 33yo Dutch player beat teen Czech prodigy Fruhvirtova (who’s great on clay) in R1 and took out Pavlyuchenkova (former Roland Garros finalist) in Rouen last week. And world #3 Gauff doesn’t have a great record here in Madrid, the 20yo American perhaps finding conditions too quick. With a match under her belt already I feel Rus can keep this close.
11:30 Christopher OConnell vs Matteo Arnaldi
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
I think O'Connell (ranked 67) is often under rated and the 29yo Aussie tested Taylor Fritz last year here in Madrid in his only prior visit to this event. He's already beaten Arnaldi (ranked 36) on clay in 2022 in the SFs of the Split challenger in straight sets. Now, Arnaldi is clearly better now (he was ranked #347 then) but it's not that long ago and we know the O'Connell serve is a huge threat - one of the top 50 in the men's game, according to ATP stats. It's fast here in Madrid (altitude) and we know that O'Connell has played a TB in 14 of his 25 matches vs top 50 opponents in the last year. Arnaldi has played just once here in Madrid, last year and the 23yo Italian played 3 deciding sets in his 5 matches (2 in Qualies) and a TB set.
10:00 Alejandro Tabilo vs Flavio Cobolli
Alejandro Tabilo
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.67
Lose
-50
I just feel Tabilo (ranked 38) is teh better player in better form right now. The 26yo Chilean is 7-5 on clay this season with a Final appearance at hoem in Santiago, Chile (which is at 570m of altitude, so similar to the 600m here in Madrid) and he's 36-14 on clay in the past 12 months vs players ranked 50+. Cobolli (ranked 64) is just 1-3 on teh dirt so far in 2024, the 21yo Italian is also 0-4 in his career on clay vs top 50 opposition.
10:00 Alexandra Eala vs Lesia Tsurenko
Lesia Tsurenko
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.25
Lose
-50
I'm honestly a little surprised that the odds for Tsurenko (ranked 41) are this big, as the 34yo from Ukraine is not bad on clay (16-9 since 2022, 12-2 vs players ranked 50+ in that span). Although her record here in Madrid isn't great (4-8) she's had some tough assignments - Kerber, Kvitova, Pliskova (in their heydays). Eala (ranked 170) is not a player I know much about but the 18yo from the Philippines is just 1-8 in her career so far vs top 100 opponents, that win vs Errani on a fast-ish hard court in Miami (the Italian veteran's worst nightmare!). With her experience I would expect Tsurenko to take this one.
10:00 Lauren Davis vs Mayar Sherif
Mayar Sherif
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.36
Win
18
Despite the fact that Madrid is at a bit of altitude (657m) and thus conditions can be faster here, it's still a clay event and in her 6 attempts at this tournament Davis (ranked 168) has a rather poor 2-6 record. The 30yo American's 2 wins have come vs a player ranked 113, and vs Puig who had a patchy record on clay herself. Sherif (ranked 72) is a thorough clay courter, the 27yo Egyptian took 2 WTA 125 titles on teh dirt last season, made the SFs in Palermo and teh QFs here, losing to eventual winner Sabalenka.
10:00 Pedro Cachin vs Sebastian Ofner
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
These two have played just twice before, both on clay, but crucially the last time was here in Madrid in the Challenger event just last year when Cachn (ranked 91) won in a decider in a tight match. The 29yo Argentine is in poor form (winless in 2024 - 0-11, 0-6 on clay) but he clearly likes conditions here (he made the R16 in this event, losing in 3 tight sets to eventual finalist Struff, last year). Ofner (ranked 45) is also not exactly in great form, just 2-6 on clay in '24 and hasn't strung more than 1 win together since the first week January. But the 27yo Austrian has shown glimpses and will feel he has a chance here with Cachin in such poor form. With neither player convincing right now this could easily see-saw, so I like Overs.
Pedro Cachin
1st Set Winner
50 WIN
@2.40
Win
70
Taking a shot on Cachn (ranked 91) here who's won the first set in both the prior H2Hs with Ofner (ranked 45) including in teh Challenger event here last year. The 29yo Argentine is in poor form but I think he knows this is the point he needs to turn that around.
Pedro Cachin 2.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
At Evens I'll take Cachn (ranked 91) with a head start here as the 29yo Argentine is surely going to hit some form soon on the red-clay. To say he's in poor form is an understatement, he's winless in 2024 (0-11, 0-6 on clay) but he clearly likes conditions here in Madrid as he won the Challenger event here last year and made R16 in this event, losing in 3 tight sets to eventual finalist Struff. He beat Ofner (ranked 45) en route to that Challenger title here last year and the 27yo Austrian is not exactly in great form, just 2-6 on clay in '24 and hasn't strung more than 1 win together since the first week January.
10:00 Richard Gasquet vs Lorenzo Sonego
Lorenzo Sonego
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.36
Win
18
I just don't see Gasquet (now ranked 116) as viable on clay any more, not that the 37yo Frenchman ever really was tbh. The legs are just not there any more and despite Sonego (ranked 52) not being in the greatest form, the 28yo Italian really should have too much for "the Gas man" here.
10:00 Sloane Stephens vs Martina Trevisan
Sloane Stephens
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.36
Win
18
Not an easy bet for me to make as I often find Stephens (ranked 33) lets me down when least expected but the 31yo American is fresh from her triumph in Rouen on Sunday - a second clay title in the past 12 months - the run to which saw her claimn 3 top 50 opponents en route. And she beat a couple of decent yardsticks in Charleston prior to that. She's won her last 6 matches on clay vs lefties so no issue there in facing Southpaw Trevisan (ranked 76) and whilst she beat Osaka in Rouen, that's not a huge plus given the latter's poor pedigree on clay. The 30yo Italian lost NTO rather easily to Kalinina and whilst she's a proper clay-courter and is 24-16 on dirt since 2022, sje's just 3-6 vs top 50 players in that span, and the form of a couple of the wins is not great. It's usually pretty quick here in Maderid due to the altitude and that will suit Stephens big-hitting more so she should take this one.
10:00 Tomas Machac vs Emil Ruusuvuori
Tomas Machac
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.53
Win
26
Machac (ranked 50) has been in decent form this season and the 23yo Czech has a decent record on clay (22-13 since Jan 2022, 3-3 vs top 100 players) and beat promising newcomer Shang in Barcelona before having to retire due to an illnes. He's had a week to recover and in Ruusuvuori (ranked 70) faces an opponent in less than stellar form (he's lost 3 straight matches) and who lost to Machac in their only prior H2H, last year indoors in Vienna (in what would have been favoured conditions for the 25yo Finn).
10:00 Yoshihito Nishioka vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Over 21.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
At Evens I have to shoot at teh Overs here, largely because Auger Aliassime (ranked 35) is seemingly unable to "win easy" against better opposition. Against top 100 opponents in the last 12 months, the 23yo Canadian has won just 6 of 30 such matches in Under 21.5 games. Nishioka (ranked 78) is not in great form and the 28yo from Japan is not known for his clay prowess but if he's going to go well it'll be in fast conditions (600m+ of altitude) here in Madrid and in his 5 matches vs FAA (he leads 3-2) they've played 3 TBs and one 7-5 set. His awkward looping leftie shots clearly cause FAA issues and I can see this being a tough one for teh favourite to close.
Yoshihito Nishioka 4.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
With this many games I'll have a go with Nishioka (ranked 78), largely because - as per my Games Total tip (see separate write up) - Auger Aliassime (ranked 35) is seemingly unable to "win easy" against better opponents. When playing top 100 opponents in the last 12 months, the 23yo Canadian has won just 6 of 30 such matches in Under 21.5 games. His 28yo Japanese opponent isn't in the best form and is not known for his clay prowess but if he's going to go well it'll be in fast conditions (600m+ of altitude) here in Madrid and he leads the career H2H vs FAA 3-2. His awkward looping leftie shots clearly cause FAA issues and he won their only prior meeting on clay at Roland Garros in 2020 in straight sets.
Subtotal133
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
