ARQ007

Cerezo sit atop the J-League and are undefeated in their 5 home games so far (W3,D2,L0). They have scored in all of their 10 matches this term. Visitors Sapporo are bottom of the table and have yet to win in the road this term (W0,D2,L2) and crucially they've scored just twice on the road but conceded 11. They have just 1 win in their 10 games so far (W1,D4,L5).

Charlie Appleby's 6yo Dubawi gelding has won his last 2 starts here at HQ (over this 7f trip and over a mile). He won 3 of his 4 starts in 2022 and wasn't disgraced after 16 months off when 1.5 lengths fifth of 16 to Fort Payne in the Group 3 Ras Al Khor at Meydan (7f, good) in March. Should strip fitter for that outing and expected to be bang there with Buick aboard.

Alec Voikansky is very good value for his 3lbs claim and teams up again with Paul and Oliver Cole’s 4yo Night Of Thunder gelding here. The 7f trip is maybe a furlong short for him but he's been running well in top mile handicaps and warrants each-way support.

Facile odds of course but Willie Mullins' Cheltenham festival Champion Hurdle hero landed this race 12 months ago and is unbeaten in his 4 starts this campaign. He's unbeaten in four course runs and it's tough to see anyone stop him from adding yet another Grade 1 to his haul.

We know Willie Mullins' 6yo Flemensfirth gelding likes it at this track having won two bumpers at this course. Despite losing on hurdling debut last December, put that behind him and since beat subsequent Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Slade Steel by seven lengths in February before winning well from today's rival Jimmy Du Seuil in the Gallagher Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham. The one to beat.

Lehecka (ranked 31) has been serving superbly here in Madrid, aided of course by the 600m+ of altitude in Spain. A later start here but that didn't affect his serve on Tuesday vs Nadal, nor Thursday vs (an admittedly injured) Medvedev. The 22yo Czech has faced just 5 BPs in his four matches here, saving 4 of them, winning 90% of first serve points in two of his matches (incl. vs Nadal). And Auger Aliassime (ranked 35) has saved 2 of 4 BPs faced here, not facing any in 2 matches. These two met once before at last year's Aussie open, with each winning a set and they played 2 TBs. I like Overs here.