MonteCarloRacing

I like to run races through Monte Carlo simulations. I simulate each race 100,000 times. Each simulation uses 72 different variables relative to each horses form and history. This validates if I think the current handicap mark is correct or not. This is basically an automated way of calculating each horses number of simulated wins for this race. The results of the simulation provides me with my own odds. I'll use my own odds to then determine the bets. i.e. VALUE. I then couple that selection with a written description based on ratings. I like to keep things generic and of a set way of writing..

3

Estimated Prizes
this month

£15

Estimated Prize money
this month

MonteCarloRacing's Tips

18th May 2024
14:05 2:05 Newmarket

Serene Seraph

Daily Racing

50 WIN

7 runners go to post in a class 3 (3YO only) race over 7f on Good ground for a £12885 prize, where SERENE SERAPH (D bf) comes into this with (relevant recent) form figures of 3210-. This 3 year old last ran 197 days ago putting up a speed figure of 73 (rest of field last run avg is 69). Has an AVG speed rating of 74 (rest of field avg is 67). Has a MIN speed rating of 66 (rest of field avg is 58). Has a MAX speed rating of 80 (rest of field avg is 76). Alec Voikhansky in the saddle today. Only 1 horse in this race has an average rating above the expected avg for this race type & class for this course, and that is SERENE SERAPH. This looks good placement from R Hannon. (2* Strength Selection & 88.57% Quality of Data Used for 10,000 Monte Carlo Race Simulation)
14:40 2:40 Newmarket

Quinault

Daily Racing

50 WIN

15 runners go to post in a class 2 (4YO plus) race over 7f on Good ground for a £51540 prize, where QUINAULT (GER) (D C) comes into this with (relevant recent) form figures of 111310-. This 4 year old last ran 224 days ago putting up a speed figure of 81 (rest of field last run avg is 69). Has an AVG speed rating of 80 (rest of field avg is 72). Has a MIN speed rating of 74 (rest of field avg is 66). Has a MAX speed rating of 87 (rest of field avg is 79). Luke Catton in the saddle today. Only 2 horses in this race have an average rating above the expected avg for this race type & class for this course, one of which is QUINAULT (GER). This looks good placement from S C Williams. (1* Strength Selection & 87.5% Quality of Data Used for 10,000 Monte Carlo Race Simulation)
15:15 3:15 Newmarket

Cabinet Of Clowns

Daily Racing

50 WIN

11 runners go to post in a class 3 (4YO plus) race over 1m on Good ground for a £12885 prize, where CABINET OF CLOWNS (D) comes into this with (relevant recent) form figures of 514224-. This 5 year old last ran 208 days ago putting up a speed figure of 76 (rest of field last run avg is 63). Has an AVG speed rating of 74 (rest of field avg is 68). Has a MIN speed rating of 69 (rest of field avg is 60). Has a MAX speed rating of 80 (rest of field avg is 77). Charles Bishop in the saddle today. Only 3 horses in this race have an average rating above the expected avg for this race type & class for this course, one of which is CABINET OF CLOWNS. This looks good placement from Eve Johnson Houghton. (1* Strength Selection & 78.33% Quality of Data Used for 10,000 Monte Carlo Race Simulation)
16:15 4:15 Navan

Mythical Times

Daily Racing

50 WIN

16 runners go to post in a class (4YO plus) race over 1m 5f on Good to Yielding ground for a £6000 prize, where MYTHICAL TIMES comes into this with (relevant recent) form figures of 7200/40-. This 6 year old last ran 365 (26J) days ago putting up a speed figure of 71 (rest of field last run avg is 57). Has an AVG speed rating of 70 (rest of field avg is 61). Has a MIN speed rating of 65 (rest of field avg is 52). Has a MAX speed rating of 75 (rest of field avg is 68). C D Hayes in the saddle today. Only 3 horses in this race have an average rating above the expected avg for this race type & class for this course, one of which is MYTHICAL TIMES. This looks good placement from P Cluskey. (1* Strength Selection & 78.82% Quality of Data Used for 10,000 Monte Carlo Race Simulation)
18:02 6:02 Thirsk

Indian Sounds

Daily Racing

50 WIN

20 runners go to post in a class 6 (4YO plus) race over 6f on Good to Firm ground for a £3664 prize, where INDIAN SOUNDS (D) comes into this with (relevant recent) form figures of 006-009. This 8 year old last ran 16 days ago putting up a speed figure of 65 (rest of field last run avg is 56). Has an AVG speed rating of 67 (rest of field avg is 60). Has a MIN speed rating of 61 (rest of field avg is 52). Has a MAX speed rating of 75 (rest of field avg is 68). Cam Hardie in the saddle today. Only 3 horses in this race have an average rating above the expected avg for this race type & class for this course, one of which is INDIAN SOUNDS. This looks good placement from P T Midgley. (1* Strength Selection & 88.57% Quality of Data Used for 10,000 Monte Carlo Race Simulation)
18:15 6:15 Bangor on Dee

Shareef Star

Daily Racing

50 WIN

11 runners go to post in a class 5 (5YO plus) race over 2m 1f 77y on Good to Soft ground for a £5281 prize, where SHAREEF STAR (CD) comes into this with (relevant recent) form figures of 1123/P-F. This 9 year old last ran 11 days ago putting up a speed figure of 64 (rest of field last run avg is 47). Has an AVG speed rating of 74 (rest of field avg is 66). Has a MIN speed rating of 64 (rest of field avg is 61). Has a MAX speed rating of 88 (rest of field avg is 73). James Bowen in the saddle today. Only 1 horse in this race has an average rating above the expected avg for this race type & class for this course, and that is SHAREEF STAR. This looks good placement from P Bowen. (3* Strength Selection & 60% Quality of Data Used for 10,000 Monte Carlo Race Simulation)
19:03 7:03 Uttoxeter

Jet Of Magic

Daily Racing

50 WIN

10 runners go to post in a class 2 (4YO plus) race over 2m 7f 70y on Good ground for a £9678 prize, where JET OF MAGIC (CD) comes into this with (relevant recent) form figures of 1U30P5-. This 8 year old last ran 144 days ago putting up a speed figure of 76 (rest of field last run avg is 73). Has an AVG speed rating of 79 (rest of field avg is 71). Has a MIN speed rating of 74 (rest of field avg is 55). Has a MAX speed rating of 86 (rest of field avg is 81). Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle today. Only 3 horses in this race have an average rating above the expected avg for this race type & class for this course, one of which is JET OF MAGIC. This looks good placement from N A Twiston-Davies. (1* Strength Selection & 90.91% Quality of Data Used for 10,000 Monte Carlo Race Simulation)
19:15 7:15 Doncaster

Banderas

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

11 runners go to post in a class 4 (4YO plus) race over 1m 6f 115y on Good ground for a £5566 prize, where BANDERAS comes into this with (relevant recent) form figures of 5/3218-4. This 4 year old last ran 21 days ago putting up a speed figure of 83 (rest of field last run avg is 68). Has an AVG speed rating of 74 (rest of field avg is 65). Has a MIN speed rating of 62 (rest of field avg is 57). Has a MAX speed rating of 83 (rest of field avg is 72). Daniel Muscutt in the saddle today. Only 1 horse in this race has an average rating above the expected avg for this race type & class for this course, and that is BANDERAS. This looks good placement from M L W Bell. (1* Strength Selection & 88.33% Quality of Data Used for 10,000 Monte Carlo Race Simulation)

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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

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